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Artigo extremamente interessante: o multiplicador do investimento público, além de relevante, é maior em países em desenvolvimento. Explicação: tais países possuem baixo estoque inicial de capital instalado (% do PIB), amplificando os efeitos de gastos do governo em investimento.
Os autores encontram evidências para os resultados analisando 3 conjuntos diferentes: países da UE, estados dos EUA e províncias argentinas.

Via de regra, quanto menor a proporção inicial de capital instalado, maior o multiplicador do investimento público.
nber.org/papers/w26478

Paper completo aqui.
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