THREAD: How Horowitz messed up his predication findings.
Horowitz report stated that Crossfire Hurricane was properly predicated on basis of Downer tip relayed on p. 52. Although the tip is vague, Horowitz says is was sufficient as bar for opening investigations is low.
Horowitz report stated that Crossfire Hurricane was properly predicated on basis of Downer tip relayed on p. 52. Although the tip is vague, Horowitz says is was sufficient as bar for opening investigations is low.
2/ A plain reading of the Downer tip tends to support Horowitz conclusion as it contains two incriminating pieces of info. First, "Trump team" had received "some kind of suggestion from Russia" to "assist". Second, the tip calls this suggestion an "offer". 
3/ On the basis of the tip as relayed by Horowitz on p. 52, there was enough there to prompt FBI interest.
But there is a big problem. The tip relayed by Horowitz does not match what Downer has said that Papadopoulos told him. Let's look at how Downer describes what he heard.
But there is a big problem. The tip relayed by Horowitz does not match what Downer has said that Papadopoulos told him. Let's look at how Downer describes what he heard.
4/ Downer's interview with The Australian is the first known public statement by Downer of what Papa told him. Notice that Papa was merely repeating gossip that Andrew Napolitano had stated on FNC *the previous day*, which Downer might not have seen.(The Australian, Apr 28, 2018)
5/ In Downer's account there is no mention of any contact between Trump team and Russia: "He said it was about Russians and Hillary Clinton; it wasn't about Trump." (The Australian, Apr 28, 2018)
That mirrors exactly what Andrew Napolitano stated on FNC the previous day.
That mirrors exactly what Andrew Napolitano stated on FNC the previous day.
6/ Here's the clip of what Andrew Napolitano told FNC just one day before Papa told the story to Downer. (from Kelly File, May 9th 2016)
7/ Downer has been consistent in his recollection of what Papa told him. Here he is telling Andrew Bolt: "The was no suggestion that there was collusion between Donald Trump or between Donald Trump's campaign and the Russians" (Sky News, May 9th, 2019)
8/ Downer goes on: "[Papadopoulos] thought the Russians might release information that could be damaging to Hillary Clinton's campaign at some stage before the election." Again, this is exactly what Napolitano speculated about the previous day.
9/ To sum up, Horowitz says that the Downer tip included both a reference to "Trump team" having received a suggestion from Russia to assist and that this suggestion was an "offer". Nothing Downer has said backs up the Horowitz version in any way.
10/ Clearly there is a disconnect between what Downer says that Papa told him and what Horowitz says that Papa told Downer. As with Ukraine hoax, the explanation is hearsay. FBI and Horowitz used an embellished "pass the telephone" version of what Downer said.
11/ If Horowitz had based his findings on Downer's account instead of the embellished pass the telephone account, he would not have been able to conclude that Papa's conversation with Downer was sufficient to predicate a full counterintelligence investigation.
12/ Barr knows this, which is why he disagrees with Horowitz's conclusion on predicate.
One final point is that Papa has made all this far more complicated than it needed to be by constantly changing his story. Luckily we have a clip showing Downer's and Papa's accounts match.
One final point is that Papa has made all this far more complicated than it needed to be by constantly changing his story. Luckily we have a clip showing Downer's and Papa's accounts match.
13/ One more thing: Here's Papa telling Bongino that Mifsud was just repeating Napolitano FNC story from "the day before". Problem is that Mifsud was on 4/26. Nap didn't tell his story until 5/9 which just happens to be “the day before” Papa told Downer. Looks like Freudian slip.
