1/ The current debate about accounts receivable should be analyzed against previous events. In late 2018, it came to light that in years prior, $TSLAQ had two open yet undisclosed subpoenas from the DOJ – in other words: investigations of criminal activity.
2/ Why were those subpoenas never disclosed? Because any normal world, sentient institutional (and retail) investors would see evidence of potential criminal activity as a serious indictment of management and would run for the hills and never look back.
3/ I can’t speak to Fidelity’s motivations as it was already gradually selling during that time, or T Rowe which started selling after the disclosure. That Baillie didn’t, or Baron, or Cap World is only something they can explain. I have no answers.
4/ But Elon and the rest of that criminal cabal at the top WERE thinking clearly back then – they knew those headlines should have been interpreted very negatively. Why do you think they buried the news? It should have caused mass selling. It didn’t.
5/ That episode cemented in Elon’s mind his tightly controlled shareholder base wasn’t going anywhere. License to Fraud.
6/ It is utterly bizarre that no real detail exists regarding the China factory. Other than some heavily redacted and oblique filings, it’s never been discussed or vetted by the markets. If the terms are so great, and the capital cost so low, tell the world.
7/ It is utterly bizarre there is no real clarity on accounts receivable. We see the volumes in the Netherlands. We know the only conclusion from the data is that Elon must channel stuff fleet sales because organic demand for his cars is not what he says it is.
8/ Look at Norway. Look at the ROW. Look at the declines in the rate of sales in important markets. After an initial burst, once Tesla’s shoddy build quality filters into the market, sales ALWAYS slow.
9/ It’s not a surprise to anyone except the press and the idiot bulls, both of whom have chosen to look the other way. Bulk sales would disrupt the sales narrative, yet the concept has, as far as I can tell, never been discussed by any @CNBC journalist.
10/ Part of me thinks the things Alfred P. Sloan, Jr. doesn’t disclose are more negative than the hidden subpoenas. (But part of me also thinks Elon runs false flags sometimes so we chase our tails).
11/ If you listen to the conference call replays from the early days through 2016, the company’s earnings calls regularly contained no management commentary – they went right to fawning Q&A from the boot-lickers as if Elon didn’t need to explain himself.
12/ The man fears sunlight like a vampire, always has, which is why I quickly dismiss the false flag as an explanation.
13/ The new factories, as stupid a business decision as he can make, are being discussed for two reasons only: (1) to make sure no vendor bails on him and pulls the plug on supply, or (2) doesn’t roll on price discounts when needed.
14/ That’s why fleet sales won’t get mentioned, ever. It will cause doubt in the supply chain. There are only so many pigs to gore.
This has been the longest running game of charades in the public markets, longer than Worldcom. The SCTY depositions are the only framework you need now for analysis. He hid SCTY’s true condition from everyone, just like he’s doing with Tesla now.
