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"SoftBank figured that out a little bit late,” Chanos says. “Maybe these companies should have a path to profitability.”

Maybe these companies should have a path to *free cash flow and positive unit economics instead." GE almost flew "profitability" right into the ground.
I was there when the Internet bubble popped. Suddenly it was extremely hard to obtain cash. Just days before cash was plentiful and easy to raise. After the bubble popped, there were assets available for purchase for dimes on the dollar if you had cash. google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
"Amazon is expected to become the largest free cash generator in the United States within five years, according to Barron’s....Wall Street analysts expect Amazon to report revenue increasing by 20% and free cash flow swelling by 28%." reuters.com/article/us-ama…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"By using this free digital tool that costs us very little in variable COGS we obtain data about you which is useful to us in cross-selling other financial services to you. Each time you add a different service to our bundles the risk that you will churn is substantially lower."
My interpretation of what Jim Barksdale famously said during the Netscape IPO was that unbundling can be a cost-effective way for a business to build a customer base that can eventually be used as a fulcrum for re-bundling other higher margin services. google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
The cycle of rebundling seems to be picking up speed as business focus more on generating cash flow than the customer leads that result from unbundling.

Can you think of some financial services businesses that are picking up the pace on cross selling other products?
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Reminder: You aren't a private equity buyer who earns a fee + carry and must invest your fund or give LPs back their cash. A PE buyer can use a multiple(s) to "price" acquisitions on a relative basis. You by contrast should the "value" the business so you have a margin of safety.
Reminder: You are unlikely to be someone who "selects a portfolio of securities – mostly stocks – that are fundamentally overvalued no matter what markets do with clients who are primarily institutions who use you as a hedge to their core equity portfolio."google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
I gave a talk once at a business school in connection with the BRK annual meeting. I was on after Aswath Damodaran, who gave a lively and valuable talk on the difference between pricing and valuation. "The value of assets may be very different than price."mmd.cfainstitute.org/pdf/2014/10491…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
This is how you do unit economics analysis. For a shareholder it requires detective work. It isn't a number or ratio you look up on a web site. The business itself has the data, including cohorted data. Both should do sensitivity analysis and use a margin of safety on variables.
Even if you only buy index funds, this unit economics analysis is an essential part of understanding any business (eg a food truck or SaaS). This process let's you know whether you are creating value. This valuation approach should be taught as part of every business curriculum.
The unit economics process is about determining:

What is the capacity of the business to generate cash flows?

What is the expected growth in those cash flows?

How uncertain are those cash flows?

You take expected cash flows and you discount them back to their present value.
Read 5 tweets

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ella⁷
@minjiiminie
yoonmin au—

yoongi manages to take a break from all the work he has to do at his company to go to his son’s recital for father’s day at his kindergarten. yoongi finds himself a little flustered when he sees his son’s teacher on stage with the kids, dressed up as a yellow puppy.
• mutual pining and fluff. if it wasn’t clear i’ll shout about it again: single dad yoongi!!! kindergarten teacher jimin!!! they crush on each other!!!

• this is a commission out of my drafts. it’s an original idea and the commissioner picked it up for me to finish writing it.
“If you don’t go to his school on friday I’m disowning you,” Yoongi’s mother has always been a sweetheart to him so Yoongi doesn’t act surprised with her comment.

Yoongi takes a sip from his wine to calm himself down. “Mom, I’m an adult. That threat doesn’t mean much anymore.”
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Part 3 to the thread starts here!

"Bkdk. Pro Hero and drummer Bakugou. Quirkless chubby sex toy/porn shop worker Deku. "

Part 1!


Part 2!



What shall the wolf do?🐺🐰🥕?
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Gavin Baker
@GavinSBaker
1) Masa is brilliant & have to respect the track record, but I am curious to compare the marks on Didi/Grab across public mutual funds and the Vision fund.

VF travails with WeWork & Uber well understood but Didi/Grab marks and the Sprint outcome might be pivotal for Softbank/VF.
2) Applying the valuations for public ride sharing comps to Didi and Grab would result in large writedowns, which is what mutual funds required to accurately price their funds have likely done. Comparable writedowns might put the Vision Fund in negative IRR territory.
3) *Very* rough Vision Fund numbs: Down $5 to $7b on WeWork on $10b invested. Down $1b on Uber on $8b invested. Likely down $2ishb on Didi and Grab on $15b invested. ARM is a big wildcard given the rise of RISC-V. So down $10ish billion on $33b invested pre ARM pain.
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Mango_Lioncat
@MLioncat
AU idea I've been toying with writing, kinda blurry on the details. Might take me a while to type it all out since I'm kind of preoccupied atm

NurseConnor gets hired by Hank because he needs extra help taking care of Cole.
Being Lieutenant and on the homicide division leaves him with unpredictable hours, and he feels bad having to call his neighbors at 2 or 4 in the morning if he gets called in, especially with Coles unpredictable condition and with the type of care he requires.
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vilage_idoit
@vilage_idoit
1/n For those who missed out on #Mello2018 - have decided to compile some thoughts from the talks and the cos. Some very successful investors in attendance; investing is about stacking the odds in your favour (like poker) and repeatedly playing to leverage your edge.
2/n If you don’t have an edge then you’re liquidity for someone else who has one. Investing and trading require patience and to wait for the opportunity. Losses reduce both physical and mental capital. You need to play to win but if you lose all your capital you can’t play.
3/n Gervais Williams - lack of wage growth changing political and investing landscape. Tailwinds will become headwinds as rates potentially rise and productivity stagnates. Risk comes from real world. Imo we are drunk on cheap credit; previous tax shields will become burdens.
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