Thread by @mcash

CLP nominations give you an interesting insight into the #LabourLeadership: where different candidates are getting their support. I've spent a bit of time looking at them, here are some of the patterns I've spotted, thanks to @CLPNominations' reporting.

@CLPNominations Comparing to 2015 nominations is interesting. For instance, Long-Bailey is sometimes described as the 'continuity' candidate but her support comes as much from CLPs which nominated Burnham in 2015 as those which nominated Corbyn.

@CLPNominations Similarly, Starmer has so far won a majority of the CLPs which nominated Corbyn in 2015, suggesting that there is more overlap between the two candidates' appeal than it might first appear.

In fact, his appeal is pretty broad. He's won a majority of Cooper and Burnham ones too.

@CLPNominations The relationship between Leader and Deputy nominations are interesting too. Starmer's supporters seem to divide between the Deputy Leader campaigns at roughly the same rate as the total, except that none of his CLPs has nominated Burgon.

@CLPNominations Nandy's support is interesting. In terms of 2015 nominations, it seems diverse: she has won nominations from CLPs which backed each candidate in 2015. However, for the Deputy leadership, her CLPs overwhelmingly support Rayner.

@CLPNominations There is no way you'd guess from the nominations that Long-Bailey and Rayner are on a slate. Just half of Long-Bailey's supporters have nominated Rayner whilst only a fifth of Rayner's have nominated Long-Bailey. The seems to benefit Rayner more than Long-Bailey.

@CLPNominations However, it is not clear that it would have been in Long-Bailey's interest to slate with Burgon. His nominations already come entirely from her CLPs. There doesn't seem to be many Burgon supporters who do not already support Long-Bailey, even without a formal slate.

@CLPNominations (At least not in these narrow terms, it's a separate question whether or not she'd benefit politically from a different alliance.)

@CLPNominations It goes without saying that Rayner's support is broadest. She has more nominations than any candidate in either race, and they draw from the three major Leadership contenders in both the 2015 and 2020 races.

@CLPNominations Over a third of the CLPs which have nominated so far did not make a nomination in 2015. These seem to be behaving similarly to the total number.
- Starmer 50% (56% of total)
- Long-Bailer 29% (25% of total)
- Nandy 13% (14% of total)
- Thornberry 8% (5% of total)

@CLPNominations This is early days of course. We have only had 111 nominations out of a potential total of 648. CLP nominations had no role in the process in 2015 but even then 387 made nominations. We can expect many more and things can change.

@CLPNominations Also worth noting, the CLPs we have had so far are not very representative of the total in 2015. Those which backed Burnham are over-represented while those which backed Corbyn or Cooper are under-represented.