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do you want me to explain whats happening
OK. First thing to know is the results released so far (75% of precincts) are legitimate to the degree that no one has objected to them. Remember these votes all took place in public, with the campaigns being immediately alerted to the results of each precinct.
Bernie leads in the popular vote released so far. Bernie is certain to win in the final count. Bernie’s campaign’s own count—which they conducted faster than the Iowa Democratic Party—show him winning. In summary, Bernie won.
At each of the 6000+ precincts, State Delegate Equivalents (SDEs) are elected. It’s a convoluted multistage process that culminates in these delegates voting for the actual delegates who go to the national convention and pick the President.
In prior cycles ONLY the number of SDEs would be reported—not the popular vote. Most media outlets I’ve seen are still reporting SDEs as the “results” of the caucus, not the actual popular vote. The AP will call the race for whoever wins this count.
🐀 currently leads in SDEs. He might lead in the final SDE count. This is why the media is reporting that he “leads” in Iowa while Bernie plainly leads in the actual popular vote.
Note that at the very end of this process, Bernie and Buttigieg will probably end up with the same number of pledged delegates to the DNC, give or take like 1.
Now ask yourself who “won” in a metaphysical sense. Is it the winner of the SDEs, which is a purely actuarial figure with no impact beyond being a vestigial extra step between the popular vote and the allocation of national delegates?
Is it the national delegate winner? Bernie clearly won the Michigan primary last time around, but walked away with fewer delegates thanks to superdels. We nonetheless have broad consensus that he “won.”
Many other states have some version of SDEs. Often primaries are multistage processes, e.g. Texas in 2008, which held BOTH a primary and a caucus. But the topline number always reported is the popular vote. There is no other metric for determining the winner. Bernie won. Thanks.
Update: The NYT appears to have now completely removed the pledged delegates column that shows Bernie and Buttigieg tied. Source: Amber
One more thing: the SDE count is NOT proportional to the final pledged delegate count. E.g., if you got 50% of the SDEs you wouldn’t necessarily get 50% of the delegates. The actual delegate allocation is another complicated multistep process.
In other words, a candidate’s percentage of SDEs is another completely meaningless datum that the New York Times thinks takes precedence over such trifles as the actual vote total or the actual pledged delegate count that actually decides who the nominee is.
and get rid of the fucking needle @Nate_Cohn
@Nate_Cohn That was fast
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