Thread by @KarlBode

There you have it.

In 3 years when your cell phone bills soar and the pink slips arrive, please be sure to complain that nobody warned you.

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1227009751441121280

Also be sure to note in three years how all of the people who advocated for this deal will face absolutely no repurcussions for having done so.

I mean we go through this time and time and time again and nobody learns anything whatsoever from the experience.

Perhaps we deserve to be clutched in Comcast's clammy embrace for all eternity.

As the AT&T Time Warner ruling already showed, our courts are broken.

There's forty years of hard data showing major US telecom mergers stifle competition, raise rates, and trigger layoffs as redundant jobs are purged.

And yet the rubber stamps operate at lightning speed.

Lots of "very serious thinkers" in the telecom analysis, think tank, and media space insist this merger is just the bees knees. Synergies! 5G!

When prices soar and thousands of people are fired every last one of them will pretend it never happened.

Think about it, in the last 3 years the telecom sector got:

-#NetNeutrality killed
-the FCC's authority over telecom neutered
-broadband privacy rules axed
-at least two massive competition eroding mergers approved.

All based largely on easily debunked bullshit promises.

And again, when this all starts to metasticize into higher prices, layoffs, privacy abuses, and other symptoms, all the "very serious thinkers" who supported this stuff will have jack shit to say about it, because they'll already be off hyping the next bad idea.

Don't cover a single beat for too long, kids, or you'll start to notice that history is a circle and we we repeatedly doom ourselves by refusing to learn anything from experience.

I particularly love how folks like Josh Hawley and Marsha Blackburn are on these adorable little tirades against "big tech," while ignoring that we're rubber stamping every dipshit fever dream that enters the brains of big telecom executives.

You'll see a lot of coverage of the T-Mobile merger soon.

Note how many make it clear that T-Mobile was only successful because regulators blocked AT&T's 2011 merger attempt--a deal not dissimilar to this one.

The "government is always bad" crowd hates that bit 'o history.

This T-Mobile ruling is an absurd joke. There's endless evidence showing the 4-3 consolidation in wireless raises prices (Ireland, Canada) and kills jobs, but the Judge here gets all bizarrely esoteric and he ties himself in knots to approve the deal.

"Yes, how can we possibly predict that mindless M&As in the telecom space will raise prices and kill jobs, I mean there's only 40 years of clear global evidence to this effect."

assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6773…

Please note today how all the DC folks like Hawley who hyperventilate about "big tech" will be dead quiet as U.S. antitrust enforcement once again falls flat on its face and big telecom is allowed to build something every bit as bad--and potentially worse.

I mean this T-Mobile ruling is just complete and total nonsense.

Reducing competitors from 4-3 stifles any incentive to compete on price. Why do you think AT&T and Verizon haven't moved to block or even criticize this deal?

Guys, the CEO of T-Mobile, who just sold his Central Park West Penthouse to Giorgio Armani for $17.5 million and lied repeatedly to get his merger approved, thinks I should let it go:

https://twitter.com/JohnLegere/status/1227239668728549377

Reminder: to nab regulatory approval of its deal, T-Mobile hired Corey Lewandowski shortly after he mocked a kid with Down Syndrome on TV:

fastcompany.com/40588026/t-mob…

Company execs also dramatically ramped up patronage of Trump's DC hotel:

reuters.com/article/us-spr…

Guess it worked?

Revolving door regulators also really helped grease the wheels.

Including lobbying by former FCC Commissioner Mignon Clyburn:

politico.com/story/2019/02/…

And former FCC Commissioner Robert McDowell:

arstechnica.com/tech-policy/20…

...who often failed to disclose his role in Op/Eds.

Anyway, I wrote about the T-Mobile merger, the total failure that is U.S. antitrust enforcement and consumer protection, and why you're all going to be paying significantly higher wireless data rates in three years:

vice.com/en_us/article/…

T-Mobile CEO John Legere, seen here suggesting I should "let it go," will leave T-Mobile in April on a giant bed of money after repeatedly making provably false statements about the merger's purported benefits.

https://twitter.com/JohnLegere/status/1227239668728549377

John, who retweeted my articles when I was pointing out how disruptive T-Mobile was in the wake of the blocked 2011 AT&T merger, blocked me last year for pointing out his merger benefit claims were false.

He then unblocked me when I complained, which was nice I thought.

You can't really overstate how broken U.S. antitrust enforcement currently is. On some fronts it's wielded as a weapon for petty vendettas:

prospect.org/justice/trump-…

While we rubber stamp terrible stop deals that create massive competitive headaches (AT&T Time Warner, T-Mobile).

AT&T and Verizon sue/cry/freak out at the faintest HINT of competitive disruption, yet have said bupkis about the T-Mobile merger.

Unlike our antitrust enforcers, they know fewer overall wireless competitors means less incentive to compete on price.

verizon.com/about/news/ver…

That said, I'll bet a toe that both AT&T and Verizon will work like hell behind the scenes to make sure Dish never becomes a viable fourth competitor and replacement for Sprint.

Who's going to stop them, Ajit Pai?

At risk of being redundant but I can't get over how incredibly bizarre and stupid this part of the T-Mobile merger approval ruling is.

There's 40+ years of CLEAR economic data showing US telecom consolidation erodes competition, raises prices, and makes customer service worse.

Then there's this part, where Judge Marrero tries to claim that US telecom incumbents--among the least competitive companies on the PLANET--would never possibly engage in anticompetitive behavior.

It's just comical.

Again, John's leaving in April on a truck bed full of money, and he's taking his magenta high tops and crock pot with him. He won't have to watch as the initially innovative company he built slowly turns into AT&T and Verizon.

https://twitter.com/JohnLegere/status/1227231335825043456

Meanwhile I see we're still doing this thing where we pretend that killing one of just four major competitors somehow INCREASES COMPETITION.

That's some fancy magic hand waving there, hoss.

https://twitter.com/JohnLegere/status/1227232915584516101

Oh, there's also no evidence the T-Mobile merger will actually result in more 5G coverage:

arstechnica.com/tech-policy/20…

arstechnica.com/tech-policy/20…

And T-Mobile is lobbying the FCC to exclude 5G from better broadband mapping efforts:

vice.com/en_us/article/…

Anyway, sorry to inundate you with a Seth Abramson-esque tirade about the perils of mindless M&As.

I've just watched this country go through this same process dozens of times over the last 20 years while learning absolutely nothing from the experience. Stop being a rube.

There's not a shred of critical thinking anywhere in Judge Marrero's T-Mobile decision. He effectively parrots pretty much every nonsensical claim T-Mobile made.

It's even worse than the AT&T Time Warner ruling, which set the bar at ankle height.

https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1227228456586489857

Anyhoo, shout out to all the covertly-funded telecom think tanks that tried to claim a 25% reduction in overall competition would be GREAT for consumers.

I'm sure in 3 years when T-Mobile pink slips and price hikes drop they'll all apologize for being misleading sycophants.

Great news everybody! Immediately reducing U.S. wireless sector competition by 25% will result in...checks notes...more consumer choice!

Extra points for pretending this is a partisan issue and the meaningless reference to the "race to 5G."

https://twitter.com/CASE_forAmerica/status/1227289477665763329

Just last week the man tasked with U.S. antitrust enforcement insisted that stopping the T-Mobile merger would "cause real uncertainty in the market for mergers and acquisitions.”

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

In case we had any uncertainty about where Delrahim's loyalties rest.

Just so I understand: "Big tech" is a massive problem that requires ample hyperventilation, but "big telecom"--which is building all the same terrible ad surveillance tech AND enjoys a monopoly over internet access itself--is no big deal.

gizmodo.com/ftc-digging-in…

Meanwhile, love me some Wall Street telecom analysts who think AT&T and Verizon are hurt in any way by a 25% reduction in wireless sector competition and a Dish MVNO built out of twigs and straw.

If this deal hurt them, they WOULD HAVE FOUGHT IT

lightreading.com/5g/what-theyre…

this take is slightly more accurate.

First 2-3 years of new T-Mobile will be a big show to pretend things are more competitive than ever to try and frame deal critics as hyperbolic.

After which AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile will work in concert to mute any real price competition.

Anyway, I'll shut up about this merger now.

See you all in 3 years when wireless prices are higher, thousands of people have lost their jobs, and everybody is standing around with a dumb look on their face pretending not to understand how this all happened.