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Our model has been updated, although one needs to treat it with a lot of caution since it's making guesses about the reaction to NH that may or may not resemble reality.

The main takeaway is that the chances of "no majority" are up to 1 in 3. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
The model didn't love NH for Bernie—whom, I should say, it's been very high on—as he underperformed its projections there by a couple of points. Sanders also got a couple of mediocre polls today hadn't hit the model yet as we awaited NH results.
But it doesn't like anyone else's position either. It doesn't see why Klobuchar should get huge momentum out of a 3rd place finish, and she's at just 4% in national polls. It actually now has Bloomberg (who got a couple of good polls today) getting the 3rd-most delegates.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
My view (and this certainly shows up empirically) is that places below 1st don't matter as much as folks think. The storylines are quickly forgotten about once a winner is declared. Buttigieg/Klobuchar getting little if any bounce post-NH is instructive.
Nor has finishing a distant 4th in NH proven to be especially harmful to Warren. And although Biden's polls declined a bunch after Iowa, they don't seem to have declined much more as a result of his awful 5th place finish in NH.
I can certainly imagine exceptions to this and a strong 2nd place finish in NV for either Warren or Biden might well be one of them. But in general it's relatively binary.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
What is your best guess for the impact the debate will have on Bloomberg's polls?
What is your best guess for the impact the debate will have on Warren's polls?
What is your best guess for the impact the debate will have on Biden's polls?
Read 6 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Welp this is annoying, but we found an issue with how our model was making state-by-state forecasts. The error is fixed. The topline effect is not very large and mainly helps "no majority" slightly. A few state forecasts have changed more noticeably. 1/

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
Specifically, the demographic regressions we use as a compliment to the polls weren't calculating properly since some code changes we introduced on 2/5 (after IA). As a result, the state forecasts were underdispersed (too conservative) especially in states with little polling. 2/
Without demographics the model basically defaulted to a geographic prior, which tends to underrate Biden/Bloomberg in the South and overrate them (especially Biden) outside the South. It also tended to overrate Sanders in Southern states and underrate him in Western states. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
#NH #FITN results are coming in!
#HartsLocation:

Klobuchar 6
Warren 4
Yang 3
Bernie 2
Biden 1
Steyer 1
Gabbard 1
#Milsfield
#NH #FITN

Klobuchar 2
Bernie 1
Biden 1
Buttigieg 1
#DixvilleNotch
#NH #FITN

Bloomberg 2
Bernie 1
Buttigieg 1

Bloomberg also won a vote in the GOP primary, suggesting Indies, who statistically lean right, might be going Bloomberg.
Read 4 tweets
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Ｓ．Ｂ． Ａｌｇｅｒ 🤓🎸🎤
@sewneo
Okay, so for the grand finale:

I used to study NLP and use Richard Bandler's book "Get The Life You Want". (I think Bandler's kind of a self-centered ass... but his stuff works.)

After I got away from my ex... I was still HAUNTED by this woman. She was an evil witch in my mind
And all that horrible stuff she said was still with me... it would trigger me depending on where I was, or things I saw like photos, or old clothes/items... You know?

So Bandler's NLP has these techniques to erase and release bad memories--but do it fast--not like therapy.
One of them goes like this:

Take the thing that's haunting you...
✅Give it a size in your mind. Is it huge? Average? Small? Is it color? Is it a still picture or a movie? determine variables on as many as you can.
✅Next: Can U make it bigger or Smaller?
Read 13 tweets
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Nick Weil
@nick_weil
Made it over halfway through Jim Acosta's book. Not really much there unless you are interested in psychoanalyzing Acosta

His "deep thoughts" make zero sense, actually shockingly so. Reminds me of when Sarah Sanders said "it's hard for you to understand even short sentences"
which, we find out in the book, she actually apologized to him for privately! I was actually consistently surprised by how kind admin officials were to Acosta, given his adversarial nature
He talks a lot about his cuban roots and how he is particularly passionate about the immigration issue (leading to bias in his reporting of course)

Also talked about his work reporting on previous GOP presidential campaigns which was interesting
Read 5 tweets
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GARV فخر
@imgarv786
About Erotic Art
It is good to see some people are trying to work on erotic art and I encourage this. But what disappoints me is their presentation, especailly the contemproary art is very disappointing. Nowadays most of the Erotic Art I see is..
... more like porn drawings and compositions rather than an erotic art.Erotic Art is huge subject. It takes lot of understanding of visual presentation combined with aesthetics to make a beautiful erotic art. It is not just a simple narration of just ‘a fuck’.
Here,5 basic points of erotic art which should clear the grey or false notion and ideas about this beautiful art form.
1.Erotic Art and porn are not the same. They are two different concepts, as different as White and Black.This is the first basic thing one needs to understand.
Read 11 tweets
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TheGirlsLikeMe
@DoreenGLM
The 1st time I suspected that the 'superior' sex could be dull was in pry 2, my seat partner Michael copied my composition essay word for word. Unfortunately for him, it was on "my self".
He wrote,
"My name is Doreen Caven, I am 6 years old, I live in 29 bourdillon road, ikoyi"
Needless to say, Miss Sylvia our English teacher, wasn't fooled by his essay and promptly punished him for copying my work.
Shortly after that, also in primary 2, my best friend and I were approached by the class bullies, Tosan and Thorpe. They negotiated a deal, if they showed
Us their Penises, and we showed them our vajayjays, they would stop terrorizing us in class and leave us out of the pinches, arm punches and lifting of our skirts.
My friend and I looked at each other, smiled and nodded. So Tosan and Thorpe, showed us their dingalings, and
Read 21 tweets

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