Quick summary of last QTR results:
GM% down due to initiatives to gain market share
Higher SG&A as they try to modernize their subsidiary operations
CEO called it "short term tradeoff for longer term growth"
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Why can they make these short term tradeoffs? 1. Because the majority owners are insiders 2. Most stock options for employees vest at retirement
Folks on fintwit say they are looking for management with long term focus, but lot of digs at $EVI results
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The one legitimate criticism is "Where is the cash flow or EBITDA?"
It's hard to tell with so much "buy" activity.
So we have to look back before the buy activity started. Distributors are mid-single digit businesses as seen in Steiner Atlantic statements below
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Same case for when they had only two operating businesses - Steiner Atlantic and Western State Designs in March 2017
Note that these two businesses are still close to 40%
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They have acquired maybe around 14 total distributors since 2016. So the other 12 (excluding Steiner and Western State Designs) on average contribute only $3.3M per quarter or 5% of $EVI quarterly revenue
The individual businesses prior to acquisition were ALL subscale.
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Subscale distributors have two problems: 1. High SG&A $ spend compared to revenue 2. Limited number of product lines they can sell
$EVI can change all of that by increasing geographic density, selling more product lines and services, and getting scale
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$EVI calls that the "Build" phase. They shared only one piece of data on it - 8% revenue CAGR for distributors owned for more than 2 years. And that's without full addition of new product lines. And they can consolidate regional operations once they get density
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b. Add more density in a market. Eg: Adding Commercial Laundry Equipment in a market with 3 existing locations
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They get to keep the entrepreneurs and gain scale
"Sellers of laundry businesses took 46% of the consideration in stock, meaning they are not just sellers, but continue to be owners of $EVI"
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Also, if their average acquisition does $3M per quarter in revenue, what kind of IT systems or CRM are they using? There's efficiency from modernizing systems here.
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EVI has same family involved as Watsco. And who did Watsco learn some of this stuff from? Maybe Wayne Huizenga of Autonation and Waste Management? ("track record of building businesses by consolidating fragmented industries")
I was still in high school in 2000, so obviously wasn't investing.
But the more I read, the more I realize it wasn't just a using "eyeballs" for valuation problem.
Thread below:
First up Xilinx
They were the leaders (and still are) with ~40% share in FPGAs. The end market was growing. They were growing fast as shown in this chart for fiscal year 2001 ending in March 2001
The CAGR was lot higher in closer to 2000 - it was growing 50%+. Until 2001 that is. That's when revenues dropped 30% due to market correction.
Xilinx - an innovator and leader in FPGAs - did not reach same stock price until 2018!
There's been a long bear market in shipping rates. And new ship building activity dropped post 2010. And more than half of the shipyards close
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If we look at the sub-segment of tankers, and specifically clean tankers, in the last 5 years supply has gone up in terms of dead weight tons. In 2019, the deadweight tons went up by another 6 million, but the TCE rates have still gone up a lot.
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Further, demolition activity for tankers dropped in 2019 because it was high in 2018 (181 tankers) and the TCE rates for both dirty and clean tankers was high in 2019.
What this all mean? There's inflection now where supply is (finally) constrained
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Thread - examples of steep drops in wealth from not managing risks esp. in business with operating leverage
Reichmann wealth collapsed 90% due to the huge bet on Canary Wharf when real estate demand / pricing dropped and credit was hard to get /1
Next up: flashy salesguy Erik Bautista who lost 90%+ of his wealth in one year. His investors also lost it all because he lied about OGX offshore oil potential. Here's an article from 2013 that talks about it. /2
Perhaps the craziest saga is of Sean Quinn - who went from being the richest in Ireland to filing for bankruptcy. He used leveraged instrument to bet on 25% shares of Anglo Irish bank - the bank with really loose lending standards- prior to 2008 housing crisis. /3
Re-reading some parts of @AnnieDuke 's fantastic book Thinking in Bets. "Hearing is believing" explores how our beliefs are based on efficiency and not accuracy. Good reminder to question all investment beliefs /1
Motivated reasoning example: is selling of stock by big shareholder forced selling or smart money exiting? How much of this interpretation is dependent on motivated reasoning? /2
Could we be having Snackwell Phenomenon (myth that sugar is good, fat is bad) in the area of investments? What are current day accepted beliefs that are just false? /3