Re-reading some parts of @AnnieDuke 's fantastic book Thinking in Bets. "Hearing is believing" explores how our beliefs are based on efficiency and not accuracy. Good reminder to question all investment beliefs /1
Motivated reasoning example: is selling of stock by big shareholder forced selling or smart money exiting? How much of this interpretation is dependent on motivated reasoning? /2
Could we be having Snackwell Phenomenon (myth that sugar is good, fat is bad) in the area of investments? What are current day accepted beliefs that are just false? /3
Think of each investment decision as a "bet" - there's skill, luck and hidden information involved. Fielding the outcome correctly to luck or skill decides whether there's true learning
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This Mia Hamm quote "Many people say I'm the best women's soccer player in the world. I don't think so. And because of that, someday I just might be"
Avoid the "Rashomon effect" by reading both long and short thesis on each stock. /6
