Please take a deep breath, sit down, take this in and stay calm. We will get through this but it's important to understand how big it is so we can ALL do our part. A Thread to try to clearly explain the best currently public evidence on #coronavirusuk:
1/ I think the current plan makes sense but should be stepped up to closures everywhere now. The government should not be asking people they need to tell institutions to shut. Shut the schools and universities, shut the pubs and restaurants so they can claim on their business...
2/ insurance, Shut the shops to buy time for increasing intensive care capacity (that specialist 1000 bed hospital built in Wuhan in a week? We need that 150 times over without quick shut down).
3/ Reorganise the economy so people who lose their jobs (travel, entertainment etc) are employed in critical sectors (delivery, security, hospital volunteers etc). Give universal basic income to everyone, starting with the vulnerable.
4/ To try to explain it, this is the situation (based on the Imperial college COVID19 UK plan published on Monday afternoon that is now informing the government): imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
5/ Without closures and self isolation and protection of high risk groups many many people will die as hospital ICU beds will be 30 times overloaded otherwise. This will start to happen in London first as most densely populated but will happen everywhere else within weeks.
6/ So at the peak without proper closures only 1 patient out of 30 needing intensive care would get it and the other 29 would likely die. Except this is multiplied by 5000 (as 5000 ICU beds only, but 150000 needing them at the peak) and this wave will last for weeks.
7/ Then there are all the other people who need intensive care normally without Coronavirus who could die.
8/ This is an 18 month or longer global crisis until an effective vaccine comes out - 100s of billions of dollars will need to be mobilised globally. Also for testing everyone and urgent drug development and trials.
9/ The model of the epidemic indicates that closures can only be temporarily lifted every couple of months or so for a few weeks until the signal for shut down is observed again (eg 50% of ICU beds full).
10/ This is because of the 2-3 week lag to critical illness from transmission meaning that during the first 2-3 weeks of the next shut down ICU will get up to 100% full. Then ICU will empty during the rest of the 2 months of shut down as virus transmission is suppressed again.
11/ Then the restrictions can be lifted until there is another spike in ICU admissions indicating a new wave is coming. This then has to repeat until there is a vaccine. This is the grim reality. Unless we can TEST EVERYONE to better control it.
12/ Probably 12 of the next 18 months at least will need to be spent under strict closures and distancing measures. The alternative is 250,000 to 500,000 deaths (with restrictions just for 3 months then lifted and not put back). Or 500,000+ deaths with no restrictions at all.
@threadreaderapp unroll
