Thread by @msbellows

@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 +1. "Impeachment" just riles his base. Dems are moving forward aggressively w/ hearings into Trump's misdeeds anyway. Let's hold hearings without saying the magic word, then "sadly + reluctantly" pursue impeachment once the underinformed public finally understands how bad he is.

@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 My take on Pelosi downtalking impeachment:

Right before the invasion of Normandy, Eisenhower ordered Patton, the general Germany most feared, to take charge of an imaginary army of fake airplanes + inflatable tanks: americainwwii.com/articles/patto…

That didn't mean D-Day was canceled.

@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 Twitter, January 2019: "OMG Pelosi is a badass strategic genius who totally understands how to outmaneuver Trump and advance the Democratic agenda ha ha ha!"

Twitter, today: "OMG Pelosi is a total sellout who doesn't understand political strategy!"

People. Take a breath.

@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 Continuing the above thread on Pelosi/impeachment with a rant. Everybody ready?

@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 More thoughts on Pelosi/impeachment:

The Watergate hearings began in July 1973; Nixon resigned in Aug. 1974 -- eleven months, in a simpler case, in a less partisan time, even WITHOUT any Senate trial at all.

1/

@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 The Starr Report was released in Sept. 1998. Clinton's Senate impeachment trial concluded (with an acquittal) in Feb. 1999. Again, a simpler case -- 17 months.

The GOP convention will formally nominate their candidate on August 27, 2020. That's 17 months from now.

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@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 If historical precedent, plus McConnell's willingness to obstruct any proceedings against Trump, are any indication, an impeachment against Trump would last at least until the Republican convention, + probably through Nov. -- making it THE focus of the 2020 election.
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@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 And if McConnell strung it out until the lame duck, do you really think GOP senators would vote to convict when they either: (a) already lost their seats and are looking for jobs in the conservative private sector, or (b) are at least 2 years away from their next election?
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@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 And if McConnell does string out the impeachment trial until after the election, do you think any Republican will vote to impeach if Trump somehow is re-elected? Or stick his/her neck on the chopping block with the GOP base, knowing it's moot because he wasn't?
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@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 Of course, there's always the possibility that the scandals revealed by the hearings would cause such public outrage against Trump that, under GOP pressure, Trump cuts a non-prosecution/pardon deal like Nixon's and resigns before the Convention.

Good for us, right?

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@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 Maybe not. If Trump resigned close to the elxn, Democrats would have spent the entire primary, w/ all that publicity + voter messaging, running against a man who's NOT the nominee.

The public would think, "Whew! Trump's over!" And "socialist" Dems get to run against Romney.

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@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 I know, I know. You're thinking: Maybe an ongoing impeachment would be a good election-year issue for Dems! But Clinton gained approval (+ congressional seats) after his unsuccessful impeachment. Do we really NEED a wild card to win this race? Or is it an unnecessary risk?

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@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 Game it out, and it looks like the two-year Republican obstruction of any serious investigations into Trump's misdeeds has worked.

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@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 Happily, we don't need to decide right now. We can hold aggressive, impeachment-style hearings (as the House is doing) while keeping the inflammatory word "impeachment" off voters' radar (depriving the GOP of its wildcard and thus preserving a nearly-guaranteed Dem '20 win).

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@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 If those hearings turn up clearly impeachable material, and sway voter sentiment to the point that enough Senate Republicans feel compelled to convict? Cool! Then impeach!

If not? Then we get to run AGAINST TRUMP (not Romney or Pence), based on what the hearings show.

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@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 That's how I read Pelosi's statement. She's proceeding with the equivalent of "impeachment" hearings, without handing Republicans the impeachment wildcard.

She'll ABSOLUTELY impeach if the stars align. If they don't, she's preserving our ability to win.

Which is wise.

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@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 That's it. Not a betrayal, just solid knowledge of how Congress works and a desire to preserve our options. Pelosi has earned more than a modicum of our trust. Now everyone take a deep breath, sit down, and watch the master stateswoman work.

c @sfpelosi

13/13 and /rant.

@AngrierWHStaff @SusanDanzig219 @sfpelosi Another good thread on this from @faravaharSF:

https://twitter.com/faravaharSF/status/1105336893330223104