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So for reasons that I can't entirely fathom, 5000 of you have found my witterings tolerable, and for that I am humbled and gratified.
I thought that I would mark the occasion with some numbers that pertain to #COVID19au, given that it's the topic of the season.
Numbers are useful things, and allow us to do all sorts of planning.
Sadly, we are seeing the emergence of arithmophobia with regards to #COVID19au- it's becoming painfully clear that the daily briefing for anyone being asked to officially comment on the situation contains the
admonitions "Don't mention the war" / "Don't frighten the horses".
Here in the Corona Bunker, we LOVE numbers! Numbers are our friends, our work colleagues and our playmates.
So let's put our love of numbers to use.
Let's make the ludicrous assumption that those of you bored
enough to follow me are a heterogenous group of Australians, representative of the general population, and not a concentration of outcasts, reprobates, and ne'er do wells.
If we go off the numbers from Wuhan province, of you 5000 freaks:
About 4,000 of you are going to catch it.
It won't feel nice, but you'll be ok. Those of you who are children might not even notice you have it, but you'll be spreading around like peanut butter, ya' filthy crotch goblins. You shouldn't be following an account like this in the first place!
Around 750 of you are going to
come to visit me in person- and I'll be delighted to meet y'all in person! Excuse my appearance, but I'll probably be dressed up like the guys in the puffy suits at the end of 'ET'...
It's not personal- promise.
You'll be ok too, after some respiratory support.
The news is a...
little worse for 250 of you.
You are going to need a ventilator, and these are going to be in short supply. If there was a way of avoiding y'all coming at the same time- which is what 'flattening the curve' is all about- we might be able to sort you out. Individually, you're not
that much of a medical challenge. En masse, you are a serious pain in the arse.
Finally, and this saddens me because I cherish all of you, some of you are going to have to say goodbye. Predicting how many of you that will be is a little trickier. It seems to be very jurisdiction
In Wuhan, it was around 2%. (n=100 of you)
Globally, it's just under 4%. (n=200 of you)
In Italy at the moment, it's about 7% (n=350 of you)
In Australia, we are being asked to accept <1% (n=50 of you)
Much will depend on our critical care capacity at the time.
What if we want to extrapolate these numbers to the population of Australia?
Let's call the population of Australia a rough 25,000,000.
Just multiply the numbers that apply to my merry band of misfit followers by 5,000.
It's good to keep the little grey cells alive!
You see? That wasn't difficult! Disturbing, but not 'difficult'.
The data used for this little exercise in maths is not sequestered. It's widely available.
If you think that the numbers look impossibly extravagant, check out…
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