Thread by @SolTaiyang

This chart is called REVERSION TO THE MEAN.

Here’s a macro-historic analysis of China’s economy as a percentage of global GDP over the last 2000 years. Data from the Madison Project.

2/ Note that China has been the world’s largest economy, or second largest, for thousands of years. This is the norm. During the last 180 years there’s been a blip, and now a reversion to the mean.

3/ The obvious question, what’s this blip? America!! You’ve already heard the story about innovation, freedom, democracy, liberalism, and how this unicorn society propelled itself into the heavens all by itself.

Here’s the part excluded from Western history books…

4/ The “Century of Humiliation” is what China calls the period of 1840-1949. Instead of paying money for Chinese goods, foreign powers decided they would just take them—divide CN’s pie amongst themselves (UK, US, JP, etc). Done thru “trade deals,” seizing ports, and territories.

5/ Referencing the chart, from 1840 there is an inverse correlation; China’s economy is divided amoung Western Europe and the United States. This goes on for decades.

But when nothing is left to steal, thieves go home.

6/ Then in 1949 the Communist Party takes over and declares an end to the CoH. Shortly thereafter, return of market share begins with China setting new policies and catching up with the industrial revolution—which happened largely while they were stuck in white supremacist hell.

7/ Starting from this macro-understanding of history, we can now understand what’s happening today, and forecast what’s coming.

I have four points, but this is a rich topic and there is much more that could be said...

8/ #1 LINDY EFFECT: the time a trend has remaining is proportionate to the time it has persisted. The US, a country 244yrs old, thinks of its existence as the history of the world. From that perspective things are changing scarily—but really things might just be staying the same?

9/ #2 CAUSE & EFFECT: Western discussion of the CCP’s policies NEVER include themselves in the narrative. China built the Great Wall, not for love to isolationism, but to keep foreign barbarians out.

10/ Today defense requires keeping Western propaganda out and monitoring locally due to the method of attack (media: civil unrest, regime change, social engineering). China is at war, and has been for 180 years. These are wartime policies. Don’t want policies? Don’t bring war.

11/ #3 NEVER AGAIN: The CCP isn’t going to let the CoH happen again, because the public won’t tolerate it. They have no options here. When Trump starts “trade deal” talk, everyone knows that it’s happening all over again.

12/ Unlike naive countries who became vassal states, notice the CCP has guarded China’s sovereignty every step of the way. Particularly from Deng-era they have been hoping for the best, but preparing for white supremacy imperialism round #2. But this time, traps are set.

13/ #4 RISK: Since China will NEVER again allow themselves to become enslaved, and American ego & hegemony will NEVER accept another country becoming the world’s largest economy—this creates an irreconcilably conflict. That’s a dangerous situation for everyone in the world.

14/ No empire has ever controlled the world, ever. Roman, British, Nazi-attempt, American—none made it further than 2/3, then receded.

Here too macro-historic analysis tells us something; America's unrealistic plan of global authoritarian control almost certainly won't work.

15/ The problem this century—how does child America grow up and find their natural place in the world, in a way that respects other nations’ sovereignty? (15/15)

#China #GDP #CenturyOfHumiliation #ColdWar
@Tom_Fowdy @DanielDumbrill @HuXijin_GT @chenweihua @MaitreyaBhakal

"The problem this century — how does child America grow up and find their natural place in the world, in a way that respects other nations’ sovereignty?"
medium.com/@SolTaiyang/re…

Here’s a graphic showing the same trend, presented in a different way—the economic center moving Eastward, back to the way it’s been for thousands of years. #LindyEffect