Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #gdp

Most recents (24)


The Bear's take:

•Unresolved Debt ceiling
•Friday's negative day and bearish candlesticks
• Several neg. divergences
•Leading stocks reversed
#VVIX bullish engulfing candle and #VIX1D daily higher highs higher lows points to more vol ahead
•GDP maybe ↓


The Bull's take

• Indices up week on high volume
•Buy the dip: Bullish action
•Volatility indicators are subdued
• $NDX, $FAANG, $SMH in good health
• $SPX, $NDX higher highs and higher lows
•Market broke out above resistance
•Breadth thrust last Wednesday

Our take

•Debt ceiling will be solved
#PCE will come lower
#GDP will be OK
•Breakout zone is likely to be retested this week
•Price is firmly in positive Gamma
•We remain cautious due to still internal market weakness

#ES_F #Options #Trading $SPY #SPX $SPX
Read 5 tweets
#MintPrimer | On 1 May, treasury secretary Janet Yellen sent a letter to the US Congress saying that on 1 June the government is likely to run out of money.

With the government currently breaching its debt ceiling, the situation has become parlous.

Mint explains what’s…… Image
#MintPrimer | There is a limit set to how much the US government can borrow to meet its legal obligations, which include paying interest on its debt and paying military salaries, tax refunds, and social security, etc.

Read here:… Image
#MintPrimer | Around the world, almost all governments spend more than they earn. This difference is known as the fiscal deficit and is financed through taking on debt.

Read here:… Image
Read 6 tweets
ಸನ್ಮಾನ್ಯ @PriyankKharge ಅವರ ಮಾತುಗಳನ್ನ ಕೇಳ್ದೆ, ಅಲ್ಲೆ ಕೆಳಗಿನ ಟ್ವೀಟಲ್ಲಿ ನಮ್ಮ ಪ್ರಧಾನಿಯವರು ಇವತ್ತು ಮಾತಾಡಿರೋದನ್ನ ಕೇಳ್ದೆ.
ರಾಜಕಾರಣಿಗೆ ವಿದ್ಯಾಭ್ಯಾಸ ಯಾಕೆ ಮುಖ್ಯ ಅಂತ ನಂಗೆ ಅಲ್ಲೇ ಗೊತ್ತಾಯ್ತು.
ಮಕ್ಕಳಿಗೆ ಬೇಕಿರುವುದು ಓದು, ಕೆಲಸ, ಸಂಬಳ, ನೆಮ್ಮದಿಯ ಜೀವನ.
2014 ರಿಂದ ಇಲ್ಲಿಯವರೆಗೂ ದೇಶದ ಜನರ ಭಾವನೆಗಳಿಗೆ ಬೆಂಕಿಯಿಟ್ಟುಕೊಂಡು ಬಂದಿರೋ ಪಕ್ಷವನ್ನ ನಾವು ಗೆಲ್ಲಿಸಿದ್ರೆ ನಮ್ಮ ಆತ್ಮಕ್ಕೆ ನಾವೇ ದ್ರೋಹ ಬಗೆದಂತೆ.
ಕರ್ನಾಟಕವನ್ನ ಮಾರಿ, ಮಕ್ಕಳ ಕೈಲಿ ಚೂರಿ ಕೊಟ್ಟು, ಹೆಗಲ ಮೇಲೆ ಕೇಸರಿ ಶಾಲು ಹೊದಿಸಿ, ಕೊನೆಗೆ ತಮ್ಮ ಚುನಾವಣೆಗಳು ಮುಗಿದ ಮೇಲೆ ಅವರನ್ನು ಬೀದಿಗೆ ತಳ್ಳುತ್ತಾರೆ. ಎಚ್ಚರವಿರಲಿ !! 2/n
ನಾವು ಯಾವುದನ್ನೂ ಮರೆಯಬಾರದು,
- ನೋಟುಗಳ ಬ್ಯಾನ್‌ - ಅದ್ರಿಂದ ಆರ್ಥಿಕ ಪರಿಸ್ಥಿತಿ ಸರಿಯಾಯಿತೆ?
5 ವರ್ಷ ಕಮ್ಮಿ ಅಂತ ಹೇಳಿಕೊಂಡು 2019ರಲ್ಲಿ ಮತ್ತೆ ಬಂದಿರಲ್ಲ ಸ್ವಾಮಿ. ಎಲ್ಲಿ ದೇಶದ ಆರ್ಥ ವ್ಯವಸ್ಥೆಯ ಸುಧಾರಣೆ? ತೋರಿಸಿ.
- #COVID19 ದೇಶದ ಜನರು ಊರುಗಳಿಗೆ ನಡೆದು, ವ್ಯವಸ್ಥೆಗಳಿಲ್ಲದೆ ಸತ್ತರಲ್ಲ. ಆವಾಗ ಎಲ್ಲಿದ್ರಿ? 3/n
Read 13 tweets

The Bear's take:

•Monthly close on lighter volume
•Negative divergences from classic indicators
•Tough talk from FEDs
•Inflation is sticky, rates ↑
#Recession is here
•Leading indicators ↓
#AAPL earnings ↓
•Big #Gamma at 4000


The Bull's take

#SPX printed back-to-back Marubozu candlesticks
•Green week with higher volume
•Green month with candlestick body above the previous one
•Return to positive #Gamma regime
•Buy the dip: Bullish price action
•Breadth improvement


Our take

• +Open on Sunday, and eventually on Monday; possible mid-session/afternoon pullback, close near flat
•Market to move ↑ or slightly ↓ ahead of FOMC
-•#Semis will improve pushing↑
#SPX to hit 4195
#FOMC: shake out/not kill current ↑trend

Read 4 tweets

"Many scenario analyses suggest that #NegativeEmissionTechnologies, such as #bioenergy with carbon capture and storage & #afforestation, are required to achieve #NetZero target, but their large-scale deployment has a trade-off relationship with food security."
1/7 Image
So, a new study considered an innovative #NET, "direct air carbon capture and storage (#DACCS), and analyzed its impact on global food access based on an indicator defined by food expenditure per GDP."
Study found that "the scenario considering DACCS mitigates the adverse impact on food access in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa compared to the scenario not considering #DACCS by alleviating food expenditure increase & GDP loss associated with emission reduction efforts."
Read 7 tweets
📈📊 Real GDP during Q1 only rose 1.1% (saar), but don’t let that number fool you!

Let’s break down why economic growth wasn’t as weak as it seems and how inventories played a role in shaping the GDP 🧵
In Q1, the real GDP rose only 1.1% (saar), but there's more to the story. During Q4, inventories surged as consumers shifted from buying goods to services.

Goods producers stopped building unwanted inventories by cutting orders and lowering prices, reducing inventories.
Excluding inventories, real final sales rose 3.4% during Q1, led by a solid 3.7% increase in real consumer spending.

This helped reduce inventories, and the chart shows the increase in real consumer spending. Image
Read 8 tweets
Hell Thursday!

Ahead of today's Q1 🇺🇸 GDP report, the @AtlantaFed has reduced its projected growth by a whopping -140 bps to only +1.1% 😮

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia closed broadly ↗️

$NIKK 28458 +0.15%
$SSEC 3286 +0.65%
$TWII 15412 +0.25%
$HSI 19812 +0.3%
$KOSPI 2496 +0.45%
$IDX 6942 +0.45%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7293 -0.3%

India ↗️
$BSE 60500 +0.35%
Europe trying to muster a bid ↔️

$DAX 15804 +0.05%
$FTSE 7854 unch
$CAC 7497 +0.4%
$AEX 749 -0.15%
$IBEX 9308 +0.15%
$MIB 27166 +0.2%
$SMI 11395 +0.25%
$MOEX 2631 +0.4%

$VSTOXX 18.33 🔻

$DAX range = 15680 - 16066 ♉️
Read 11 tweets

The Bear's take:

•Upward momentum is lost
•Negative divergences and sell signals from classic indicators
•Big weekly bullish enfulfing candle on $VVIX
•Weekly bearish haramis on major indices
•Inflation is sticky, higher rates coming
#Recession is here


The Bull's take

•Major indices printed weekly higher lows and higher highs
• $VIX continues in strong downtrend
• Leading stocks holding support
•Dealers are holding net long positions
•Positive Gamma regime
•Buy the dip: Bullish price action


Our take

•The market will stay in the current range (4100/4160) through Tuesday
•Nothing has broken yet, we remain cautiously bullish, but moving up our flip levels (↑↓)
•Earnings will help float the market, but could be mixed

#ES_F #SPX $SPX #options $SPY
Read 4 tweets
How to build trustworthy #AI

In 2022, artificial intelligence took centre stage in policy discussions highlighting its potential and its risks.

Learn more in our latest newsletter 🧵⤵️…
The #OECD AI Principles form the first intergovernmental standard on #AI

Adhering countries have worked to ensure that AI systems:
◼️benefit people & the 🌍
◼️respect democratic values & #HumanRights
◼️are transparent & explainable
◼️are robust, secure & safe

Learn more ⤵️ Image
Between 2011 and 2019 in #OECD countries:

📈#Workers with skills in statistics, computer science 💻 & machine learning have almost tripled as a share of employment.

Find breakdown by country ⤵️ Image
Read 8 tweets
Seit 2019 wurden im #Saarland 104 #Verdachtsfälle von möglicher #Polizeigewalt registriert. In keinem einzigen Fall kam es zur Verurteilung eines Polizeibeiamten. Kriminologe Tobias Singelnstein hält das für "eine bedenkliche Bilanz." 1/3 Saarlandwappen auf der Uniform einer Polizeibeamten. Durch d
Für den Rechtswissenschaftler der Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität #Frankfurt bedeute die geringe Anklagequote, dass die strafrechtliche Aufarbeitung solcher Verdachtsfälle nicht besonders gut funktioniere. Es brauche eine angemesse Kontrolle. 2/3…
Die Verurteilungsquote wegen #Polizeigewalt im #Saarland liegt mit ca. 1 % im Bundesschnitt. Den Grund sieht Singelnstein u.a. in der schlechten Beweislage. Ohne Beweisvideo steht Aussage gegen Aussage. Das Problem wird durch den bestehenden #Korpsgeist/#CopCulture verstärkt. 3/3
Read 7 tweets
Indian economy-A mixed planned economy.

A Thread:
1. India's GDP is the 5th largest in the world by nominal #GDP and the 3rd largest by purchasing power parity.
India has been experiencing steady economic growth of 7-8% per annum until the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020, resulting in a contraction of -7.7% in 2020-21.
2. The Indian #economy comprises of major sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and services, which together contribute more than 85% of the country's GDP.
Agriculture is a key sector in the Indian economy, contributing around 16% of the country's GDP.
Read 11 tweets
@MarinSanna Voisiko 7666 '#InTheNameOfAllah', #Jauhojengi-totuutta paeta...
#MKUltra-#CIACoup In #Finland 2019 - #Finns have had to realize that their #enemy is not #Russia or President #Putin, but their own treacherous #Satan-worshiping #GreatReset #WEF govt.
@MarinSanna #MSM admitted the #hidden #NATO agenda: the merger of the #FinnishAirForce with the "Nordic Air Force", which has been prepared for 15 years | Mar 29 - When #Finland's NATO #membership is nearing, the result of decades of planning,.. was revealed.
@MarinSanna THREAD 30
FROM: #NATO poll. The #Finnish people (92%) #REJECTED joining NATO.
TO: #Eduskuntavaalit2019 [3:33:05] - 93.9% of votes have been counted (2893919 pcs). SDP won with 7,666 votes and appointed a girl as PM who pleaded that she was against #NATO
Read 19 tweets
We're about to enter a new chapter of capitalism. Where we eliminate labour from the productivity equation. GDP will not be tethered to labour, meaning it will become unbounded. It's gonna get weird fast.
For those looking for more details, I've compiled some thoughts here with my AI:

🧵1/ As #AI drives the cost of knowledge & physical work towards 0, we'll see widespread adoption across industries. 💼🤖 Massive layoffs won't mean a loss in productivity—instead, we'll witness an……
🧵1/ As #AI transforms labor markets & drives productivity, it's essential to understand how this may challenge the traditional notions of GDP & capitalism. Let's explore the implications with a balanced view, referencing key economic principles. #Economics #GDP #Capitalism

Read 4 tweets
Highlights from the keynote address made by Mr. Deepak Bagla, Managing Director & CEO of Invest India at the Standard Chartered Treasury Leadership Forum 2023.

A thread! (1/n)

#India #economy #GDP #highlights #thread
India is going through the most unprecedented transformation of human history in the free world today. (2/n)

#india #economy
This is the first time in the history of India’s 5000 years of existence, that the 3 pillars are going through a rapid transformation at the same point in time.

The 3 Pillars:
- Economic
- Social
- Political (3/n)

#india #economy #social #political
Read 20 tweets
⭐️#BRICS countries overtake the #G7 in share of world GDP.
#Brazil, #Russia, #India, #China, #SouthAfrica (BRICS) now provide 31.5% of global #GDP, with further projected growth - while Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States (G7) provide 30.7%.
A look at #BRICS countries' GDP growth and GDP Growth rate clearly shows that the US hegemony of the world economy is on the brink of collapse by 2030, leading to the shift in power balance to the eastern part of the world.
Post-Russia Ukraine conflict, #BRICS countries showed remarkable resilience contrary to consumer inflation and energy inflation in Europe and the US including the G7 bloc.

Read 4 tweets
⭐️#US Budget 2024 FY
Between 2024 and 2033, spending would total $82.2 trillion (24.8 percent of #GDP), revenue would total $65.2 trillion (19.7 percent of GDP), and budget #deficits would total $17.1 trillion (5.1 percent of GDP)
And the #Ukraine, 51st State of US- $ 6 Billion
1. The deficit would rise from $1.4 trillion (5.5 percent of GDP) in FY 2022 to $1.6 trillion (6.0 percent of GDP) in 2023 and to $1.8 trillion (6.8 percent of GDP) in 2024.
#USA #budget2024… Image
2. The President's budget is built based off OMB's ten-year economic forecast, which is somewhat rosier than other forecasts. Under the budget, OMB projects 4.3 percent Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in calendar year (CY) 2023, /n
Read 4 tweets
श्रीलंकेची ढासळलेली अर्थव्यवस्था, पाकिस्तानची खालावत चाललेली इकॉनॉमी अशी बरीच उदाहरण आज आपण बघत आहोत, पण देशाची आर्थिक परिस्थिती समजून घेण्यासाठी कोणकोणत्या गोष्टी महत्वाच्या आहेत ते आपल्याला माहित असणे गरजेचे आहे, आपण या गोष्टींबद्दल जेवढे जागरूक असू तेवढेच आपण देशाला या…
1/12 Image
परिस्थितीना सामोरे जाण्यापासून वाचवू शकतो, सरकारला धोरणांवरती प्रश्न करणे चांगल्या धोरणांना पाठिंबा देणे हे आपले नागरिक म्हणून कर्त्यव्यच आहे.
अर्थव्यवस्था हा खूप मोठा विषय आहे, त्याचे सर्वच द्योतक आपण या थ्रेड मार्फत सांगता येणार नाहीत पण काही मुद्दे नक्कीच समजून घेऊ
१. देशाची आर्थिक परिस्थिती समजून घेण्यासाठी, त्याच्या GDP (एकूण देशांतर्गत उत्पादन) समजून घ्या आणि अर्थव्यवस्था समजून घेण्यास प्रारंभ करा जीडीपी कालांतराने कसा बदलत आहे ते पहा आणि इतर देशांशी त्याची तुलना करा.
GDP म्हणजे वर्षभरात उत्पादित सर्व वस्तू आणि सेवांचे एकूण मूल्य.
3/12 Image
Read 12 tweets
Set a reminder for my upcoming Space!…

We are going live in 5!

Follow the thread below for slides!

#nifty50 #NiftyBank #corporateindia
Before we begin, here is the Disclaimer
Read 49 tweets
Whether you like it or not, we're in an #economic #reset & nothing can stop it

The #macro chart of the #USA #economy reveals a crucial insight everyone should pay attention to

US #GDP & M2 money supply in #USD tn

Read on...

#tradingview chart👉

1/🧵 Image
Untill 2011, money supply M2 consistently remained below 60% of #GDP

#Growth in M2 kept pace with GDP growth

Enabling low #inflation secular growth #economy

Despite popular #fintwit narrative, even GFC of 2008 did not upset M2 GDP⚖️balance

This is what GFC did...

2/🧵 Image
Average #GDP growth was 4% but M2 grew at 6%

Since 1960, this is the 1st time M2 increased faster than GDP

Still in 2011, M2 was less than historical average 60% of GDP

The story gets interesting for #investor #Traders #students #everyone

Then came the opportunity...

3/🧵 Image
Read 9 tweets
@LynAldenContact suggests Taylor Rule implies 10.2% FFR citing @stlouisfed FRED (#Fed).

Is 10.2% really what Taylor rule suggests the FFR should be currently at?

A thread.

Taylor Rule:

FFR = R* + 0.5 (GDP est - potential GDP) + 0.5 (inflation est - 2)

R* - natural interest rate (estimates vary from 2-2.5%); IOW FFR which is neither expansive nor restrictive

#Fed's Dec projections:

GDP est - 0.5%

Potential GDP - 1.8%

Inflation est - 3.1%

Assuming higher bound of the R* estimates, and #Fed's Dec SEP projections Taylor rule implies:

FFR = 2.4%

This is about 220 bps BELOW the current FFR!

And almost 800 bps BELOW that 10.2% @LynAldenContact quoted.

Read 17 tweets
🇪🇺⚡️Updated European #GDP data indicate that the region was on the verge of a #recession in Q4 2022, with at least three countries, including the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Finland, experiencing two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.
Germany, Italy & Poland have seen a decline in GDP, while France & Spain remain in the positive.
The slowdown in GDP dynamics is due to unique structural characteristics, with the main channel of influence being energy & inflation, leading to government subsidies to compensate for damage.
Read 4 tweets
🔆IMF Global Forecast for 2023-24 #Thread
1. Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024.
2. The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) but below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent.
3. The rise in central bank rates to fight inflation and Russia Ukraine war continue to weigh on economic activity. The rapid spread of COVID-19 in China dampened growth in 2022, but the recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery.
Read 14 tweets
Based on the 2022 province #GDP numbers, today's piece offers a window into how several aspects of #China's #economic development have performed over the previous year, which could provide them an advantage in the post-#pandemic recovery. 🧵(1/12):…
1) South China’s Guangdong Province and east China’s Jiangsu Province still led the way, remaining as the only two major economic powerhouses with their gross domestic product (GDP) exceeding 10 trillion yuan (about 1.47 trillion U.S. dollars). (2/12)
Guangdong has ranked first for 34 consecutive years, while Jiangsu has come second for 30 years in a row. (3/12)
Read 12 tweets
We're breaking #Budget2023 down for you.

Sit back, relax, and have a great read! 👇

Infra gets boost:

- Highest ever capital outlay of Rs. 2.40 lakh crores for Railways

- 50-year interest-free loans to states one more year for infra spends

Agri & Fisheries to benefit:

- Agricultural accelerator fund to promote agri-startups

- 10,000 bio-input resource centres in next 3 yrs to promote natural farming

- 6000 Cr outlay for Animal husbandry, dairy, and fisheries
Read 28 tweets

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