Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #gdp

Most recents (24)

#RBIPolicy | RBI Governor @DasShaktikanta says RBI's signals, actions & communication must be read together. Image
#RBIPolicy | RBI Governor @DasShaktikanta says the RBI is addressing the overall liquidity situation in the market to ensure orderly evolution of yield curve Image
#RBIPolicy | RBI Governor @DasShaktikanta says growth is of paramount importance at the current juncture & that the central bank is mindful of the overall liquidity situation in the market Image
Read 4 tweets
#RBIPolicy | @RBI Governor @DasShaktikanta says the central bank will remain accommodative as long as necessary to sustain growth on a durable basis Image
#RBIPolicy | RBI Governor @DasShaktikanta says vaccine distribution & its efficacy is key to global economic recovery Image
#RBIPolicy | RBI Governor @DasShaktikanta says the upside risk comes from speeding of #COVID19 vaccination programme, gradual release of the pent-up demand & reform measures by the govt Image
Read 11 tweets
#RBIPolicy Poll | The MPC of @RBI is set to announce its policy decision at 10 am today amid rising #COVID cases and elevated inflation. MPC is expected to maintain status quo in this policy & the focus will shift towards RBI's stance on liquidity management and forward guidance Image
#RBIPolicy Poll | Most bankers believe, @RBI will maintain its #GDP forecast for FY21 & FY22 Image
#RBIPolicy Poll | As per CNBC-TV18 poll, 60% of bankers see @RBI retaining CPI inflation forecast of 5-5.2% for H1FY22 Image
Read 4 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 03/27/2021…
Reconsidering Monetary Policy: An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Interest Rates and Nominal GDP Growth in the U.S., U.K., Germany and Japan…

#MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #GDP #NominalGrowth
Read 8 tweets
Here is a summary of #COVID19 Planning for 2021: Comparing the #Economic Impact of Alternative Recovery Scenarios report.…
@LimestoneAnalyt together with economists from @queensu, developed this model to measure the economic impact of #COVID19. The model is designed to provide #GDP and workforce projection captures dynamic input-output interactions between industrial sectors.
It can accommodate various scenarios regarding how the disease is likely to spread and consumer behavior likely to change. It provides economic projections for the period of January to December 2021 for three mitigation and recovery strategies.
Read 8 tweets
#China #NPC #两会 #Twosessions
#China #unemployment #CPI #twosessions2021
Read 21 tweets
#UK's Sunak - OBR sees peak #unemployment rate of 6.5% (Nov forecast 7.5%); OBR sees UK #GDP returning to pre-crisis level in Q2 2022 (Nov forecast Q4 2022).
#UK Finance Minister Sunak: Introducing a new recovery loan scheme for businesses; retailers will receive up to 6,000 pounds per premises.
#UK 2021-22 budget deficit forecast at GBP 234b vs GBP 164.2b-BBG
Read 5 tweets
While our February 18th monthly client call argument for rising #RealRates appeared prescient, we were surprised by the magnitude of last week’s #move and would expect a more benign evolution toward #equilibrium going forward.
Taking a stab at periodizing the past year: 1) in Feb/Mar 2020 the Covid crisis was priced into #markets, real #rates spiked higher, #inflation breakevens collapsed and #investors scrambled to raise #cash as the #SPX experienced its fastest 30% drawdown in history.
Then, 2) from Apr through Oct 2020 we witnessed the #market impact of monumental #monetary and #fiscal policy responses to the #crisis, as policymakers successfully sought to force #real rates down and restore #inflation expectations.
Read 10 tweets
Q1 #GDP has now been revised lower to -24.4% from the previous reported contraction of -23.9%

Private final consumption expenditure at Rs 21.2 lakh crore is down 2.4% YoY
While manufacturing has grown by 1.6% in Q3 vs 0.6% QoQ.

Services have continued to contract at -7.7%. This slump in trade hotels hospitality and communication a concern because Of their heavyweight in the #GDP many quarters before the pain ends
Private final consumption expenditure at Rs 21.2 lakh crore is down 2.4% YOY. But while demand for goods is picking up demand for services which is the biggest contributor to our GDP is trailing and is unlikely to pick up even in the next few quarters.
Read 6 tweets
🚨*𝐍𝐈𝐄𝐒𝐑 𝐁𝐮𝐝𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟏 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐤* 🚨

All you need to know ahead of next week's #Budget in one... THREAD 👇

The #Budget2021 comes at a critical time when the UK is in the middle of battling the #pandemic and the economy is substantially weakened with uneven effects at industry, household & region level.

Read the economic context to #Budget2021 here 👇

We project the UK economy to contract again in 2021Q1 due to the second wave and the winter #lockdown as well as the effects of post-#Brexit adjustment, bringing #GDP to some 11% below pre-#pandemic levels

Read 19 tweets
#EcoSurveyWithCNBCTV18 | Govt consumption & net exports have cushioned the growth from diving further down, the survey says

#BudgetWithCNBCTV18 Image
#EcoSurveyWithCNBCTV18 | The eco survey estimates real #GDP growth for FY22 at 11%. That's a CNBC-TV18 newsbreak confirmed Image
#EcoSurveyWithCNBCTV18 | India’s fiscal policy must not remain beholden to a noisy, biased measure of India’s fundamentals, the survey observes

#BudgetWithCNBCTV18 Image
Read 7 tweets
The last several weeks have provided abundant drama for #markets to digest, but in our latest @BlackRock Market Insights commentary, we suggest that it’s two recent #publications that might prove more instructive for #portfolio #allocation in 2021:
First, @jasonfurman and @LHSummers make a strong case that lackluster #growth and #inflation in developed #markets may be boosted by targeted #fiscal spending. Over long horizons, the #cash flows that accrue from productive #investments render the #debt incurred sustainable.
Second, @RobertJShiller published a significant update to his widely followed #CAPE model: subtracting the real #yield on #USTs from the reciprocal of the CAPE ratio to show what an #equity #investor may expect to earn over #risk-free #bonds, in real terms based on #market price.
Read 5 tweets
#Fitch,last year said,in FY22,India's #GDP growth will be in 8.5-9.5% range,but has now upgraded it's forecast,saying India under @narendramodi,will grow by solid 11% in 2021-22💪

GDP growth estimates for India in FY22 👇
IMF 8.8%
Nomura 9.9%
India Ratings 9.9%
Goldman Sachs 13%
Fitch,while lauding Modi Govt said,India is unusual among EMs,in having secured pre-orders of various vaccines,sufficient to cover a population-wide programme,having pre-ordered 1.6 billion vaccine doses,including 500 mln of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine through a local producer
M&M expects Tractor industry to grow between 17-19% in FY22;If overall #AutoIndustry grows by 15-20%,cascading effect on GDP growth,will be superior

After stellar Nos by TCS,#Infosys also reported solid 16.6% YoY rise in consol net profit at 5197Cr for Dec qtr
#Economy #Earnings
Read 6 tweets
#McKinsey Data visualizations from "Charting the Path to the Next Normal". "Globally, governments allocated a stunning $10 trillion for #economic #stimulus in just two months. That was triple what they spent during the entire 2008–09 financial #crisis."…
"#Digital became the way to get many things done—from visits to doctors to shopping to #socializing. The reliance by Asian governments & businesses on six digital & mobile technologies would become a model for the world."

#4IR #5G #GreatReset #telehealth
#McKinsey is a World Economic Forum strategic partner.
On Jan 25-29, "The #Davos Agenda", will focus on "the future of work, accelerating stakeholder capitalism, & the Fourth Industrial Revolution." #Social, #human & "natural capital".

Read 7 tweets
#MCProOpinion | Fixing the cost of the vaccines is proving to be a knotty problem, writes Prosenjit Datta

#COVID19 #Vaccine…
#MCProOpinion | India has set an ambitious target of achieving renewable energy capacity of 500 GW by 2030. But doubts remain: Abhijit Kumar Dutta

#renewableenergy #renewables…
#MCProOpinion | Supply disruption during COVID-19 is driving positive change in the automobile industry. Manufacturers are stepping up local sourcing. This can benefit the domestic auto component industry: R Sree Ram

#AutoSector #COVID19…
Read 5 tweets
Just in: India’s real #GDP is estimated to contract by 7.7% in 2020-21, as compared to a growth rate of 4.2% in 2019-20.
- @tragicosmicomic reports
@tragicosmicomic Real GVA (Gross Valued added) at basic prices is estimated at ₹123.39 lakh crore in 2020-21, as against ₹133.01 lakh crore in 2019-20, showing a 7.2% contraction, as per advance estimates by the National Statisical Office.
@tragicosmicomic Only two sectors estimated to record positive #growth in GVA this year: #Agriculture (3.4%) and Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility services (2.7%)
Read 5 tweets
Der letzte Tag im Jahr ist für uns eine Gelegenheit, noch einmal Danke an alle Mitglieder und Unterstützer*innen zu sagen und auf das Jahr zurückzuschauen.
Für unsere Berufsvereinigung hat sich viel getan: Unser Twitter-Account hat massiv an Follower*innen zugelegt...
...und medial sind wir zu einer immer vernehmbareren Stimme geworden, nicht zuletzt auch durch eure Unterstützung!
Wir konnten weiterhin Mitglieder in verschiedenen Bundesländern und aus allen Teilen der Polizei gewinnen und trotz Corona-Beschränkungen analoge sowie...
...digitale Treffen abhalten und die Vernetzung der Mitglieder untereinander voranbringen.
Thematisch hielt das Jahr einige Schwerpunkte bereit, die für uns prägend waren. Dazu zählt die Abwägung zwischen Freiheits- & Versammlungsrechten und dem Schutz der Allgemeinheit...
Read 10 tweets
#Bitcoin’s market value now $468 billion, bigger than #GDP of #Africa’s largest economy
The price of the world’s most popular #cryptocurrency recently surpassed $25,000, reaching a new milestone of $25,199.50 on #FTX exchange and surpassing the Gross Domestic Product of any country in #Africa
#Africa's largest economy, #Nigeria has a #GDP, valued at $$448.1 billion. At the time of writing this report, #Bitcoin comfortably outmatched #Nigeria’s #GDP with a market value of $468 billion
Read 7 tweets
🇺🇸 #GDP thread

There are only so many ways to spin old data in a rapidly evolving #COVID19 environment.

The economy grew an upwardly revised 7.5% (⬆️0.1ppt) or, 33.4% annualized (⬆️0.3ppt) in Q3 – recouping 2/3 of Covid output loss.

Still, remained 3.4% smaller than end 2019
The strong Q3 #GDP performance gives a false impression of the economy’s true health.

Much of Q3 gain came from carry-over effects from fast progress in May-July while real GDP remained down 2.9% y/y in Q3.
With most of Q4 in the books, we expect ongoing but much slower #GDP growth around 1.5% (or, 5.5% annualized) in the final quarter of the year.

Still, that will also reflect much stronger entering Q4 than the current underlying pace of activity
Read 9 tweets
#Fed #FOMC statement largely unchanged

- NEW qualitative outcome-based forward guidance for QE program that links the horizon to max employment + price stability goals

- no change to composition or size of QE, but a floor of "at least" $120bn per month
The latest economic projections:

- Stronger near-term growth expectations
- Quite strong #GDP expectations for 2021
- Lower unemployment projections: below 4% in 2023
- #Inflation only a tad firmer: below 2% till 2023
- #Fed funds rate at zero through 2023
The #Fed's #GDP growth & #unemployment forecasts help explain why the Fed decided not to increase size or composition of QE.

They foresee rather strong growth in 2021 with a rapid decline in the unemployment. I wonder what their labor force participation rate assumptions are.
Read 5 tweets
The turn of the calendar year invites the temptation to prognosticate regarding the course of the year ahead for the #economy and for #markets, and not being immune to that impulse, here are our views on the “11 themes to consider as we look toward 2021:”
In preview, one key theme is that 2021’s nominal #GDP growth is likely to surprise many skeptics with its strength. The sources of upside surprise can be found in: 1) the new #fiscal #stimulus combined with structural budget #deficits
And in 2) the @federalreserve’s ongoing asset purchases and 3) the impressive #economic momentum that is still broadly underestimated, as a post-election, and #pandemic-recovering world can catalyze 2020/21’s monetized #stimulus (more than 15% of GDP) into impressive NGDP growth.
Read 10 tweets
I've always maintained #India needs legislation mandating a #Defence budget at 2.5% of #GDP exclusive of pensions . This will force every govt to control populist spending for votes to help build up the Security of #India .
Absolutely , we cannot keep handing out largesse . As I keep pointing out #India spends ₹300,000cr to buy 6% of total crops on #MSP .That's 1/8th of our total receipts of ₹24,00,000cr . Guaranteeing price on all crops will bankrupt #India .
Add in expenses on subsidies on fertilizer, seeds ,free electricity etc & loan waivers & the expenses on the #agriculture sector alone is over ₹10,00,000cr .#money that comes out of the pocket of the taxpayers .
There has to be a better more sustainable way to support #Farmers.
Read 5 tweets
NEW—#GDP 2020 projections of @OECD countries. Hardest hit: 🇬🇧 🇦🇷.

(HT @pitres)…
2) New— @OECD #GDP 2021 projections.

📌Fast vacc➡️+$3 T

📌Slow vacc➡️-$4 T

🌎 4.2%
🇦🇺 3.2%
🇨🇦 3.5%
🇪🇺 3.6%
🇩🇪 2.8%
🇫🇷 6%
🇮🇹 4.3%
🇯🇵 2.3%
🇰🇷 2.8%
🇬🇧 4.2%
🇺🇸 3.2%
🇦🇷 3.7%
🇧🇷 2.6%
🇨🇳 8%
🇮🇳 7.9%
🇮🇩 4%
🇲🇽 3.6%
🇷🇺 2.8%
🇸🇦 3.2%
🇿🇦 3.1%
🇹🇷 2.9%

(HT @pitres) #EconomicOutlook #COVID19
3) If #COVID19 vaccinations rollout is slow, the effect with be a further -3.4% or -$4 trillion.

However is vaccine rollout it fast... (next post)...
Read 4 tweets

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