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Those Nerdy Girls Profile picture
@DearPandemic
Apr 6, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Q: Are the official numbers reported on the dashboards too high or too low?
A: The official numbers are most likely an undercount of actual Covid-19 related deaths.
Read this Twitter feed for a breakdown of the types of #COVID19 deaths written by fellow demographer @AndrewNoymer
The numbers on the dashboards only include those deaths that fall into Category 1, confirmed #COVID cases. Category 2 includes deaths that are misattributed to other causes (either due to lack of testing or false negative test results).
Category 3 includes deaths from other causes that have worse outcomes due to hospital overload. In Category 4, #Covid_19 deaths are displacing deaths that may have come from another cause in the coming months.
Plus, we must remember the downstream effects of what the economic and social upheaval will do to overall mortality risk.
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1241620…
#CoronaVirusUpdate #COVID19Pandemic #CoronavirusUSA

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More from @DearPandemic

Those Nerdy Girls Profile picture
Dec 22, 2022
How can I stay safe during the holidays?

➡️Think in terms of harm reduction. Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

dearpandemic.org/safe-holidays/

#covid #rsv #flu #HolidaysAreComing

1/
2/ Just in time for Christmas, #COVID is again on the rise.

#Flu and #RSV may be peaking—but remember that there are often as many cases *after* a peak as before it.

dearpandemic.org/are-cases-peak…
3/ How can we enjoy moments w/ family & friends & lower the risk of illness?

💥 Small steps you take to reduce risk are worthwhile. A little bit better…is a little bit better.

Prevention steps that work for COVID will reduce the risk of RSV, flu, & many other nasty viruses.
Read 14 tweets
Those Nerdy Girls Profile picture
May 4, 2022
1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.

dearpandemic.org/numbers-infect…
2/ A recent @CDCgov MMWR report estimated seroprevalence from a convenience sample of blood collected for medical tests.

➡️Roughly 58% of Americans showed evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in their blood by Feb '22.

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…? Image
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7… Image
Read 15 tweets
Those Nerdy Girls Profile picture
Apr 29, 2022
1/Q: Did getting exposed to fewer germs for the last 2 years weaken our immune systems?

We've been hearing this question a lot.
dearpandemic.org/fewer-germ-exp…
2/ Not likely. If your kids are suddenly getting sick a lot, this is likely due to “catching up” on exposures rather than a weakened immune system.
3/ Many families w/ young kids have been hunkered down for the better part of 2 years– a good % of a young child’s entire life. While isolation had *many* downsides, we can agree that not having to suction snot out of infant noses or clean up norovirus puke was a happy upside.
Read 18 tweets
Those Nerdy Girls Profile picture
Jan 27, 2022
1/ Q: Are cases peaking? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?

A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve).

dearpandemic.org/are-cases-peak…
2/ ➡️ And if the downward slope is *slower* than the rise, we will see *more* cases during the decline from a surge.
3/ Burning fast could be a silver lining of super transmissible #Omicron. Cases rose & fell quickly in S. Africa (w/ hospitalizations & deaths still lagging). The UK appears to have turned the Omicron corner. Many US states appear past their peak in cases, w/ regional variation:
Read 17 tweets
Those Nerdy Girls Profile picture
Dec 30, 2021
1/ Q: Case numbers are jumping QUICK! What should I be doing?

A: Share your gifts without sharing COVID. Helpful gestures come in many shapes.

dearpandemic.org/what-should-i-…

#Omicron #ThoseNerdyGirls
2/ One HUGE help: Cancel non-essential plans.

Unfortunately, this includes New Year’s Eve plans. The perfect storm of a new variant & holiday get-togethers is hitting communities & health care w/ FORCE! Testing is in short supply.
3/ Health care is under extreme pressure with surging cases. If you can avoid even one additional contact, you are helping. This is a temporary and urgent request (from a health care provider).

#MedTwitter #HCWs @IMPACT4HC
Read 10 tweets
Those Nerdy Girls Profile picture
Dec 21, 2021
1/ Q: Is it true that #Omicron is less severe than previous variants?

A: We HOPE so, but we don’t know yet. The evidence so far is mixed.

dearpandemic.org/is-omicron-les…
2/ We are WAY past due for some good variant news. But pinning our #Omicron hopes on a less virulent variant is not wise for 2 reasons:

1) It might not be less severe in those who are “immune naïve” (neither vaccinated nor with a previous infection—still millions of people).
3/ 2) Many more infections *even* if less severe can still lead to an avalanche of hospitalizations and deaths, and the risk of long Covid.

@AdamJKucharski raised this last December w/ the rise of Alpha:
Read 25 tweets

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