To contact trace, or not to contact trace, that is the question many governments are asking themselves at the moment
But will #contact_tracing really work in our battle against #COVID19?
Let me tell you why contact tracing efforts are bound to fail ...
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But will #contact_tracing really work in our battle against #COVID19?
Let me tell you why contact tracing efforts are bound to fail ...
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The #DP3T approach has been adopted by tech behemoths Google & Apple and even the European Data Protection Board @EU_EDPB has said that this is a viable option
edpb.europa.eu/our-work-tools…
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edpb.europa.eu/our-work-tools…
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I've seen lots of intelligent people from academia, industry, NGOs and govmnts jump on the contact tracing wagon and work on building apps to trace social interactions of large populations
Even the #EU is working on a contact tracing initiative
cnbc.com/2020/04/01/eur…
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Even the #EU is working on a contact tracing initiative
cnbc.com/2020/04/01/eur…
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Further, some people have completely thrown privacy under the bus and proposed to surveil public places 🙄
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However, #contact_tracing apps/approaches will not save us - especially not on their own, and not at this time in the pandemic
Why is this?
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Why is this?
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1) Without mass testing, contact tracing is useless because we wont know who's sick
With the exception of very few countries (South Korea, Iceland, Taiwan + 1-2 more) other countries are lagging behind in ramping up their testing capabilities (incl. US, UK, DK, etc)
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With the exception of very few countries (South Korea, Iceland, Taiwan + 1-2 more) other countries are lagging behind in ramping up their testing capabilities (incl. US, UK, DK, etc)
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Why does this matter?
Well evidence from the US shows that there is a direct correlation between the number of tests and the number of detected cases
So, without mass testing contact tracing you wont know who's sick
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Well evidence from the US shows that there is a direct correlation between the number of tests and the number of detected cases
So, without mass testing contact tracing you wont know who's sick
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2) Without mass quarantine facilities, where people who are COVID positive, people waiting for test results, and people who have been in close contact with a COVID positive person can safely self-quarantine - it makes no sense to mass contact trace
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We do not want people to self-isolate at home with their families, as this will just make them sick as well
Unless we have fever and quarantine hotels to properly quarantine people, contact tracing wont help
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Unless we have fever and quarantine hotels to properly quarantine people, contact tracing wont help
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Only for countries in which 1+2 are in place does it make sense to contact trace (HK, Taiwan, South Korea)- otherwise you can contact trace as much as you want - it wont make a difference!
In these situations contact tracing will only create a lot of noise
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In these situations contact tracing will only create a lot of noise
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And even if 1+2 are in place, contact tracing might not be feasible - why? Well, first, studies have shown that around 20-60% of the full population (!) need to have the app installed for contact tracing to properly work
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Second, unless your government or CDC have experience and technical capacity in absorbing insights derived from contact tracing it wont matter
South Korea, Taiwan, HK have experience w. SARS and had systems in place before the pandemic
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South Korea, Taiwan, HK have experience w. SARS and had systems in place before the pandemic
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Anybody who tells you that this capacity is easy to build is either a fool or lying
Trust me, I have worked in the #UN on building local capacity - its not that easy
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Trust me, I have worked in the #UN on building local capacity - its not that easy
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Further, problems arise from asymptomatic spreading of #COVID19
Studies have shown that between 40-80% of people are asymptomatic carriers of the virus - meaning they can infect you without having symptoms themselves
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Studies have shown that between 40-80% of people are asymptomatic carriers of the virus - meaning they can infect you without having symptoms themselves
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Its unclear how contact tracing will work in asymptomatic scenarios
For example, how will you know if you have been exposed to #COVID if the person which has exposed you has no symptom?
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For example, how will you know if you have been exposed to #COVID if the person which has exposed you has no symptom?
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Lastly, there is the question of technological bias
Not everybody has a smartphone, we know that the most vulnerable definitely do not. So contact tracing apps risk leaving out the most vulnerable parts of our societies
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Not everybody has a smartphone, we know that the most vulnerable definitely do not. So contact tracing apps risk leaving out the most vulnerable parts of our societies
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I know this is a long thread, to summarize don't waste time to develop contact tracing solutions unless your country has:
- mass testing campaigns 🦠
- resources to quarantine individuals 🏠
- systems in place to ingest insights 🤖
- understanding of limits and biases 📊
fin
- mass testing campaigns 🦠
- resources to quarantine individuals 🏠
- systems in place to ingest insights 🤖
- understanding of limits and biases 📊
fin
