Thread by @DrDenaGrayson

⚠️Preliminary data from a #coronavirus antibody study of 3,000 people in NY show a 13.9%(!) infection rate.

NYC: 21.2%
Westchester/Rockland: 11.7%
Rest of NY: 3.6%

@NYGovCuomo says the case-fatality rate may be 0.5%, but actual death toll still not known
cnn.com/2020/04/23/hea…

These results suggest that >1.7 million people in #NYC, and >2.6 million people in #NY state have already been infected with #coronavirus, nearly TEN-FOLD HIGHER than the 268,581 confirmed #COVID19 cases NY state has recorded.💥

Important: The antibody samples were taken from people out shopping (NOT a random sample), which may have increased their exposure to #coronavirus, BUT most were not actively sick or living in nursing homes. And no one who died from #COVID19 was tested for antibodies.🧐

Because a random sample was NOT taken (instead, samples were taken from people out shopping), it's possible that the % with antibodies in this study is HIGHER than the actual %. Although this study did NOT include actively ill or nursing home residents, where % infected is HIGH.

Unfortunately, even if these early data are correct, and 21% of people in #NYC really do have #coronavirus antibodies, we are nowhere close to the >70-80% level needed to reach "herd immunity."

And NYC likely has a much HIGHER % infected than other US regions/hot zones.

Although these early data suggest that the case-fatality rate (CFR) may be ~0.5% in NY, it will take more time to determine the real CFR. The *actual* #COVID19 death toll is likely to rise, as prior "unexpected" deaths are investigated, and samples are tested for #coronavirus.

⚠️Even *if* the CFR for #coronavirus is 0.5%, that's still 5-10-fold HIGHER than for seasonal flu.

Unlike flu, there is NO vaccine or effective preventive treatment for #COVID19, so the number infected will be MUCH higher than for seasonal flu.

https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1253431167849644033?s=20