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So NSW Health has ‘released’ their report on school #COVID19 transmission today, although the only place it can be found is in the press.
So let’s look at what we know from the reporting.
Dates of recruitment not provided.
(Before peak? At peak? After peak)
Involves contact...
tracing of 9 students, and 9 teachers. These sentinel cases were presumably identified via SYMPTOMS (not specified) in a cohort notorious for not manifesting with ‘symptoms’.
Despite the suggestion by the authors that the ‘transmission’ rate is ‘extraordinarily low’, it’s not...
clear how that conclusion is reached, given the rates of asymptomatic transmission in the specific cohort under evaluation. It would be more accurate to refer to ‘#SARSCOV2 transmission, leading to #COVID19’ which is entirely defensible.’
And that’s it.
That’s the detail that we
have upon which we are being asked to make a decision.
Make no mistake, this is a good piece of work- a hard piece of work to complete- and the authors should be proud of it.
But the conclusions being drawn by the press and #auspol are incorrect.
The question that needs to be
specifically asked is not whether schools should remain open for those who need to use them (they should).
The question is ‘will returns to school reverse the hard won gains made by Australia to date?’
And on the basis of what meagre data has been released to the public, this
study does not give us that answer, no matter how it’s spun.
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