(1/4) This is a very important thread to read regarding #COVID19 in schools in #Australia. As noted by @an_leavy, the report on the situation in NSW lacks methodological rigour. My interpretation can be found below.
(2/4) Key points:
There were only 18 index cases, so these analyses are based on extremely small numbers, and it is hard to generalise from this.
Only a minority of close contacts of infected students were tested, so secondary cases could have been missed.
There were only 18 index cases, so these analyses are based on extremely small numbers, and it is hard to generalise from this.
Only a minority of close contacts of infected students were tested, so secondary cases could have been missed.
(3/4) Most of Australia's cases were from overseas travel at this time (i.e., imported cases, not community transmission), so it's misleading to say children are only small % of cases.
During some of the time covered by the report, the Premier had advised keeping children home.
During some of the time covered by the report, the Premier had advised keeping children home.
(4/4) Two children (secondary cases at a primary school and a high school) were most likely infected at school, which suggests it is possible for children to transmit the virus to others. How likely this is remains unknown, but it suggests there is some risk.
