Thread (1/12) in which I present evidence for school closures to prevent the spread of #COVID19.
Summary: children are at risk of both infection and severe disease; school closures saved lives in the 1918-19 influenza pandemic.
#auspol #covid19australia #CloseSchoolsNow
Summary: children are at risk of both infection and severe disease; school closures saved lives in the 1918-19 influenza pandemic.
#auspol #covid19australia #CloseSchoolsNow
(2/12) First, new data show that children are at risk of both contracting the novel #coronavirus and experiencing moderate to severe disease (44.7% of cases).
(3/12) Children can have a very high viral load, yet be almost asymptomatic.
(4/12) Asymptomatic or mild #COVID19 cases are likely driving the epidemic.
(5/12) Mild #COVID19 cases in children can be easily overlooked or mistaken for other respiratory illness. However, prolonged viral shedding in faeces has been observed.
(6/12) Live #SARSCoV2 virus has been isolated in faeces. Faecal-oral transmission is now a possibility.
(7/12) It is possible for people with #COVID19 to significantly contaminate the environment around them, and therefore unknowingly pass on the virus to others.
(8/12) The virus which causes #COVID19 can persist on some surfaces for up to 3 days.
(9/12) Thus, schools could be a hotspot for #SARSCoV2 transmission. Children could infect each other, their families, and ultimately the wider community.
(10/12) Now the evidence for the effectiveness of school closures.
(11/12) In a simulated influenza pandemic, school closures modestly reduced the cumulative attack rate but decreased peak attack rate by up to 40%. Authors note this could “mitigate stresses on healthcare systems and absenteeism in the critical workforce.”
nature.com/articles/natur…
nature.com/articles/natur…
(12/12) Finally, real data to conclude. During the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in the US, school closures coupled with bans on public gatherings reduced mortality, but only if enacted early.
Compare St Louis (acted early) with Pittsburgh (acted late).
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
Compare St Louis (acted early) with Pittsburgh (acted late).
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
Dear @MarkMcGowanMP @marshall_steven @DanielAndrewsMP @GladysB @fanniebay @ABarrMLA @VictorianCHO @CHO_WAHealth, you may not be aware of some of the new research detailed in this thread. Please read and consider school closures to protect the community from #COVID19.
Dear @unionsaustralia @AEUfederal @IEUofA @SSTUWA @NTEUNational @Unions_WA @VicUnions @TheQCU @cpsucsa @SAUnions, please read thread. Children at risk of #coronavirus infection & severe disease; may transmit virus to others; school closures saved lives in 1918 influenza pandemic.
