Q: If I want to look at graphs of #COVID19 cases and compare across countries, should I look at graphs that are adjusted for country population size (for example, number of cases per 100,000 people) or just the total number of cases?
A: Hey, whatever floats your boat, we won't judge, but there's a good argument for the total number of cases (*not* adjusted for country population size) graph providing more useful information.
@jburnmurdoch, Senior Data-Visualisation Journalist (cool title!) at the @FinancialTimes is a strong proponent of the total cases approach, seen here:
He supports this choice with this scatterplot, which shows almost no relationship between country population size and number of cases.
"Population does not affect pace of #spread. All per-capita figures do is make smaller countries look worse", he tweeted a few weeks ago.
"Plenty of things _indirectly related to population_ can make a difference:
• Pop density can increase rate of spread
• Countries with many major travel hubs may end up with multiple outbreaks
But pop alone is a bad thing to adjust for if wanting assess how bad an outbreak is."
@jburnmurdoch also announced today that @FT will be shifting its focus on reporting #COVID_19 mortality to *excess* mortality experienced by countries and regions during this period compared to earlier periods. Stay tuned for a follow-up on this metric.
The Financial Times has made much of their #coronavirus coverage free to read, and it's a great source of clear and compelling "data viz".
1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.
2/ Not likely. If your kids are suddenly getting sick a lot, this is likely due to “catching up” on exposures rather than a weakened immune system.
3/ Many families w/ young kids have been hunkered down for the better part of 2 years– a good % of a young child’s entire life. While isolation had *many* downsides, we can agree that not having to suction snot out of infant noses or clean up norovirus puke was a happy upside.
1/ Q: Are cases peaking? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?
A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve).
2/ ➡️ And if the downward slope is *slower* than the rise, we will see *more* cases during the decline from a surge.
3/ Burning fast could be a silver lining of super transmissible #Omicron. Cases rose & fell quickly in S. Africa (w/ hospitalizations & deaths still lagging). The UK appears to have turned the Omicron corner. Many US states appear past their peak in cases, w/ regional variation:
Unfortunately, this includes New Year’s Eve plans. The perfect storm of a new variant & holiday get-togethers is hitting communities & health care w/ FORCE! Testing is in short supply.
3/ Health care is under extreme pressure with surging cases. If you can avoid even one additional contact, you are helping. This is a temporary and urgent request (from a health care provider).