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How to exit the #Covid #lockdown? Here is a thread.
One way would be for each State to work out a risk score & decide what is an acceptable risk. A risk score will give us the risk of easing lockdown at each stage in phases in terms of possible infections and lives lost. 1/n
We categorize activities as high,medium,low risk &assign scores.Essential services that may carry risk but can't be stopped are in a separate category.Opening inter state travel or international travel will be high risk.Opening stand alone shops in green zones may be low risk 2/n
Thus an entire set of activities are prepared and assigned risk grades or scores. In parallel we get models/projections of possible rise in infections and cases if we permitted each activity risk wise and later combination of activities across risk grades.The expected impact 3/n
in terms of increase in infections & lives lost is estimated.Agreed that these are merely estimates and could be wrong but still it would be far betrter than easing the lockdown blind.The impact on healthcare system is also considered at each score level. Any activity that 4/n
may overwhelm the healthcare system is put off for later.Easing starts at the risk level deemed acceptable by the Govt. on Day 1 and the increase in cases is monitored daily and tracked. If the increase in cases is as per the projection the Govt decides to move to the next 5/n
level of easing deemed acceptable. If increase in cases is lower than projection,then earlier easing cd be planned. If increase in cases is higher than projection then Govt either does a partial lockdown again or rolls back some of the permitted activities. 6/n
Obviously categorization of activities as high,medium & low risk is to an extent arbitrary but common sense and medical opinion can help make this as objective as possible. Also, projections are often incorrect but they give us a way to track how interventions work over time 7/n
Since #covidindia does not seem to be going away in a hurry,such a scoring system may help States take decisions more objectively.
Experts in statistics and risk management kindly provide your feedback and if you would like to work on this DM me. 8/8
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