THREAD: @JoeBiden & The #ElectoralCollege: There are 2 basic factors of electability nearly every major Democrat candidate in 2020 could reach: 1. Win the national popular vote and 2. Win back Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. The easiest & barest levels of electability. But...
2/Suppose we are overestimating the #Resistance to Donald Trump in 2020? Suppose just one of the key 3 states in 2016 put Trump over the top in 2020? Which candidate could get to 270 electoral votes a different way? Who is best positioned to win in Florida? In Arizona? In North..
3/Carolina? In Ohio? It's those bigger thresholds that make @JoeBiden the best positioned to beat Trump. Two groups give Biden a unique electoral advantage. First, an incredible strength among older voters. Of the top 10 oldest states as of 2018, 3 are crucial swing states:
4/New Hampshire, Florida & Pennsylvania. 3 of the next 7 oldest states are Michigan, Wisconsin & Ohio. The other Biden strength is among African-American voters. Of the 10 states with the highest black population, two 2020 swing states: North Carolina & Georgia. The next 10....
5/states include Florida, Michiagn & Ohio. It shouldn't be a choice between senior strength of Biden & youth strength of @BernieSanders. But assuming it is a choice, primary voters made the right choice. In #Election2016, ages 60+ had over 70% turnout. Ages 18-29 turned out....
6/less than 45%. Seniors will vote no matter the obstacle whether the traditional ones or poor health or a candidate not checking all of their boxes. Despite physical peak, it's a task to get young people to vote. It's a time of life when day jobs & personal relationships take...
7/a priority to voting. Even when they do vote, many have an unreachable standard of perfection. Most of the third-party votes in 2016 came from young people, who would be predisposed to values closer to the @TheDemocrats. If you've been on Twitter since @JoeBiden became the....
8/presumptive nominee, you have seen many who aren't ready to jump on board. For some, Biden doesn't meet their definition of liberalism or change. For #Bots, it's an opportunity to sow chaos from the left in order to help Trump. The electoral reasoning for Bernie would be that..
9/young folks would show up in droves & change the look of the electorate while senior Democrats & Independents against Trump are already there. But a couple of factors suggest that isn't the way. One is the 2020 primaries where the theory of unprecedented turnout didn't bare...
10/fruit. The other is the ability with voters in the middle that previous went for Trump. There is a small cross-current of anti-establishment feeling that Bernie & Trump share. But many who don't want to vote for Trump again would do so if the alternative was "socialism." Joe..
11/Biden is the best positioned to take votes from Trump & put them directly into his column. Take aside the key 3 states & ask who is best positioned in every state. @JoeBiden can win North Carolina & Georgia on the strength of black vote. In Florida, it is most pronounced...
12/because of seniors, black voters & Cuban voters who don't love "socialism. For Bernie, the youth vote becoming more Hispanic could make a case for Arizona & a shot at Texas. However, both are longstanding red states that have a conservative bend. Getting the transition to....
13/blue is easier done with a Biden than a Bernie. To borrow from basketball, a wide selection of swing states would spread the floor to create more paths to victory. For example, polls have shown Texas to close. It's a state #Resisters would love to get, but do not absolutely...
14/need. What we want is for Trump to feel scared enough to lose Texas that he has to go solidify it. In a longstanding red state, holding a rally or two might do the job. Even so, every trip he makes to Houston, Dallas or San Antonio is a trip he doesn't make to Phoenix,......
15/Orlando or Pittsburgh. The more money, time & effort Team Trump spends in a day we don't need, the less money, time & effort they spend in a state we do need. Swing state #Resisters still have much work to do to solidify the electoral votes they are responsible for bringing..
16/home. Let's be confident without being complacent! Let's get @JoeBiden 270 electoral votes!
