Thread by @CovidTownHall

Starting soon at 3:30PT! American Economist Dr. Daniel A. Sumner will be speaking with @ucdavis students about food supply-chain issues related to the coronavirus pandemic at @ucdavisbiology's @CovidTownHall.
Live streaming: facebook.com/ucdavisbiology/
#CovidTownHall #Covid19 1/

Dr. Sumner is the Frank H. Buck, Jr., Professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California, Davis and the Director of the University of California, Agricultural Issues Center. 2/

Dr. Sumner has published broadly in academic journals, books & industry outlets. His research focuses on the consequences of farm & trade policy on agriculture & the economy. 3/

Dr. Sumner was raised on a fruit farm in Suisun Valley, CA & was active in 4-H & FFA activities as a youth. He studied agricultural management at California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo, a masters from Michigan State, a Ph.D. in economics from the U Chicago 4/

Since then, Dr. Sumner has been honored by the American Agricultural Economics Association for his agricultural policy contributions as well as awarded the AAEA award for Quality of Research Contribution and Quality of Communication and is a Fellow of the Association. 5/

Prior to beginning his current position at @ucdavis, Dr. Sumner was the Assistant Secretary for Economics at the United States Department of Agriculture where he was involved in policy formulation and analysis on the whole range of topics facing agriculture and rural America 6/

In Dr. Sumner's role as supervisor of Agriculture's economics and statistics agencies, Dr. Sumner was also responsible for data collection, outlook & economic research. He also has served as a Senior Economist at the President's Council of Economic Advisers in the late 80’s. 7/

Dr. Sumner recently in the media:

Savor: Food Shortages in a Pandemic. Event: Robert Mondavi Institute for Wine and Food Science. May 12, 2020.
rmi.ucdavis.edu/events/savor-f…
8/

Dr. Sumner recently in the media:

Food Availability is ‘Not the Thing to Worry About’ During Pandemic. Ag Net West. May 4, 2020.
agnetwest.com/food-availabil…

As meat plants idle, California has no shortage of fish, dairy. NBC News. April 30, 2020.
nbcnews.com/news/us-news/m…
9/

Dr. Sumner recently in the media:

'We're in pretty good shape' | Northern California unlikely to see meat shortage. ABC10. April 29, 2020.
abc10.com/article/news/h…

COVID-19 outbreak causing possible meat shortage across US. KRON4. April 26, 2020.
kron4.com/news/bay-area/…
10

There have been a number of concerns raised in recent news stories about the effects of the #COVID19 pandemic on our food supply chain. Tune in to our town hall with Dr. Sumner on Facebook at facebook.com/ucdavisbiology/ for a discussion of these issues!

We're live on Facebook! Our discussion with Dr. Daniel Sumner will be starting in a few minutes. What questions do you have about the food supply chain and the #COVID19 pandemic?

Dr. @BeccaCalisi and Dr. Winey (dean @ucdavisbiology) welcome Dr. Sumner to today's town hall! Excited to get the virtual discussion started here on Twitter!

Dr. Sumner: "I think that the food supply system has been remarkably resilient" considering the shock from COVID-19 disruptions.

Dr. Sumner: Chickens aren't going to lay three eggs a day because you tell them to, so demand and price went up as people bought food. We expect certain products to have higher prices throughout the summer and fall, perhaps.

Dr. Sumner: The food industry is doing what it can to get food to vulnerable populations, but unemployment has gone up and some people can't afford food, so these are concerns. Others worried about immigration and visa issues. #CovidTownHall

Dr. Sumner: We've tried to expand food banks and distribution programs/networks to get food to people who need it. Food stamp spending has been increased as well to respond to #COVID19 pandemic. #CovidTownHall

Dr. Sumner: unemployment rates and mandated shutdowns are hitting lower-income households harder. Anyone who says they know what happens next doesn't really know. We've never been thru anything like this.

Dr. Sumner: There are real consequences to shutting down the economy. When economy was first shut down, lots of people were stocking up, led to problems with supply chain. Dairy farms were supposed to have a big year in 2020.

Dr. Sumner: Some countries are blocking exports, so what happens when villages don't have access to food or your products can't be sold? Trade is the road to economic growth, and stunted growth means stunted children. Effects are severe. #COVID19 #CovidTownHall

Dr. Sumner: We've diverted public and private sector budgets to respond to the pandemic, but when you spend a lot in the short term, long-term investments take a hit. California is already talking about financial cuts as we look to the future. #COVID19 #CovidTownHall

Dr. Sumner: I grew up in a rural area between Davis and Berkeley, majored in agricultural management issues, and decided during a college economics class that this is what I wanted to do for the rest of my life. Studied labor & agriculture economics during my PhD. #CovidTownHall

Dr. Sumner: How quickly can we turn things around in response to shutdowns? Pretty quickly, but it's a different story when an outbreak hits a meat production plant, that creates more challenging issues. #COVID19 #CovidTownHall

Q: Could technology of packaging be made more fluid or mobile to respond?
A: If this was a regular occurrence we'd be ready for it. We don't want to make everything 20% more expensive to create redundancy in system.
#COVID19 #CovidTownHall

Q: Could population going to vegetarian diet help alleviate some of the pressures on food supply chain? Or maybe it causes even more issues for meat production?
A: We're ~ 1% vegetarian in US, but meat consumption is actually going up globally.
#COVID19 #CovidTownHall

Dr. Sumner: takes more work to get the nutrition you need as a vegan, so there are shifts to animal sources of protein.
#COVID19 #CovidTownHall

Dr. Sumner: Industries often use disease as an excuse to block trade. For years & years, the avocado industry tried to keep out avocadoes from Mexico, claiming that there were issues were disease. We kept out Mexican avocadoes for a generation because of "protectionist" measures.

Dr. Sumner: The real motivation was keeping prices on avocadoes higher. When avocadoes from Mexico were imported again, prices did go down but then demand for those avocadoes went up because people liked them!
#COVID19 #CovidTownHall

Dr. Sumner: Trade is natural among every species I know. That's how they are. Governments that try to block trade have difficulties doing so. North Korea is an example.
#COVID19 #CovidTownHall

Q: What about luxury goods? (truffle, luxury meat, etc.)
A: Most of us aren't buying those luxury goods, we're just buying the basics while we're hunkered down at home.
#COVID19 #CovidTownHall

Dr. Sumner: farmers markets have had a tough time because of shutdowns and health guidelines. Farmers markets can be crowded, hard to social distance in that kind of environment. Delivery services are doing well though.

Dr. Sumner: people working side-by-side in meat-packing plants in rural areas, with some plastic sheeting protection between people. Plants could have taken protective measures earlier. Instead, plants have to shut down for a few weeks to sanitize.
#COVID19 #CovidTownHall

Dr. Sumner: 5-10% of the plants/supply are affected as a result.
#COVID19 #CovidTownHall

Q: News sometimes makes this out to be economy vs. biology (succumb to a collapsed economy vs. succumb to the virus). How can biologists and economists work together to meet in the middle?
A: Lots of collaboration between biologists and economists.
#COVID19 #CovidTownHall

Dr. Sumner: health is also connected to the economy. Poverty and health are closely related. Cites story about a mother who was forced with choice about which children to feed because not enough money to feed everyone equally. It's an upsetting story. #COVID19 #CovidTownHall

Q: Role of government to redistribute food and prevent price gauging?
A: The key is to get income in people's hands. Government is good at that, not good at distribution. The last thing we want to do is having the government running grocery stores, in my opinion. #CovidTownHall

Dr. Sumner: there will be mistakes in this process, but it was more important for the government to respond quickly. People need money and can't wait three months for paperwork to be processed. But there are people who are falling through the cracks. #CovidTownHall

Dr. Sumner: Response to get food to those vulnerable populations of people. Have we done enough? I don't know. Have we done a lot? Yes, we have. There will be harder choices to make going forward. #CovidTownHall

Dr. Sumner: In the middle of a crisis you don't think about what to do in the future, you think about how to deal with current situation. Pretty soon we'll have to start thinking about the future though. #CovidTownHall

Q: Will the agricultural industry tend towards further automation & labor-free technology?
A: As the cost of labor has increased, move to tech is greater. We're moving in that direction. Less expensive to put machines on supply line if guidelines say you have to space people out.

Dr. Sumner: Some people are learning to cook for the first time because of this!
Dr. Ken Kaplan: my local bakery went from selling baked goods to only selling baking supplies.

Dr. Sumner: It's a tough time to be out there right now. For undergrads who had internships or labs lined up this summer, might feel like they're entering a wartime economy like that from the 1940s.
Dr. Kaplan: Opportunities in virology labs & vaccine development are up, perhaps.

Dr. Sumner: I hope that students are going to be the ones to keep us safe from the next virus!
Dr. Kaplan: It's a time to be engaged and be active.
#COVID19 #CovidTownHall