1/ Q: What is this news about an antibody “100% cure” I just heard? Please tell me this is true!
A: While we want nothing more to wake up to this type of #COVID19 “game-changer” news, we should read this story with both cautious optimism AND skepticism. More below
2/ The news story in question from Friday came from a press release by #Sorrento Therapeutics, whose stock went up 153% on the news that it had found an antibody that provides “100% inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 infection of healthy cells after four days incubation.”
3/ The antibody works by preventing the #virus from attaching to the host’s healthy cell, which means it can’t enter the cell and reproduce: biospace.com/article/sorren…
This does sound like promising news, so file under cautiously optimistic. Thought there are some caveats:
4/
1)This is a “lab” study, meaning a test tube/petri dish rather than in real humans.
2)The actual study/data hasn't been released in a scientific pre-print OR peer reviewed paper.
3) This is not an overnight “cure”: They explain..
5/ "We anticipate having enough material to start a Phase I trial in patients in the ICU within two months."
"If it is effective and safe in the patients, they would expect to start a larger Phase II trial in August or possibly September.”
6/ 4) Finally, there seems to be a pattern to pharmaceutical press releases without accompanying data that result in large stock surges…enough reason to maintain some healthy skepticism until further results come out.
7/
With all of the treatments and #vaccines being tested right now, there will likely a lot of news about “magic bullet” cures.
Real progress will likely be more incremental, but large and cumulative in the medium and longer term.
8/ We have the upmost confidence in all the human brainpower focused on solving the #COVID problem.
Breakthroughs will happen, but they will have to last beyond one news cycle and be vetted thoroughly. 🗞️
We stand ready to use help interpret the firehose of news along the way!
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1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.
2/ Not likely. If your kids are suddenly getting sick a lot, this is likely due to “catching up” on exposures rather than a weakened immune system.
3/ Many families w/ young kids have been hunkered down for the better part of 2 years– a good % of a young child’s entire life. While isolation had *many* downsides, we can agree that not having to suction snot out of infant noses or clean up norovirus puke was a happy upside.
1/ Q: Are cases peaking? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?
A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve).
2/ ➡️ And if the downward slope is *slower* than the rise, we will see *more* cases during the decline from a surge.
3/ Burning fast could be a silver lining of super transmissible #Omicron. Cases rose & fell quickly in S. Africa (w/ hospitalizations & deaths still lagging). The UK appears to have turned the Omicron corner. Many US states appear past their peak in cases, w/ regional variation:
Unfortunately, this includes New Year’s Eve plans. The perfect storm of a new variant & holiday get-togethers is hitting communities & health care w/ FORCE! Testing is in short supply.
3/ Health care is under extreme pressure with surging cases. If you can avoid even one additional contact, you are helping. This is a temporary and urgent request (from a health care provider).