The Dollar Standard:
The US Economy fell from 40% of World GDP in 1960 to just 25% today.
However, 79.5% of all world trade is conducted in US dollars.
84% of all non-domestic debt globally is US Dollar debt.
Around $100trn of global debts are denominated in US Dollars.
The US Economy fell from 40% of World GDP in 1960 to just 25% today.
However, 79.5% of all world trade is conducted in US dollars.
84% of all non-domestic debt globally is US Dollar debt.
Around $100trn of global debts are denominated in US Dollars.
Total US domestic non-financial debts are $80 trn (and rising fast).
The Fed balance sheet is currently $7 trn.
If this recession is morphing into a global solvency event (which by definition is a slow miserable grind, not a shock and awe event, which is a liquidity event),
The Fed balance sheet is currently $7 trn.
If this recession is morphing into a global solvency event (which by definition is a slow miserable grind, not a shock and awe event, which is a liquidity event),
then the current strategy of the Fed trying to stave off debt impairment is near impossible but they will try and haha, the money printer will go Brrr...
But the dollar will continue to rise as demand for dollars rises.
But the dollar will continue to rise as demand for dollars rises.
And that in turn slows global growth, making the dollar shortage worse and the solvency crisis worse as cash flows fall globally, which makes dollar in even short supply....
So the Fed print more money to try to replace cash flows via fiscal stimulus. Velocity of moneys falls
So the Fed print more money to try to replace cash flows via fiscal stimulus. Velocity of moneys falls
as money in hoarded.
All other central banks print more to offset their own systemic strains.
Dollar rises since $1 of QE from ECB is worth 4x in liquidity adjusted terms as $1 from the Fed. The Fed can't win.
And that in turn slows global growth, making the dollar shortage
All other central banks print more to offset their own systemic strains.
Dollar rises since $1 of QE from ECB is worth 4x in liquidity adjusted terms as $1 from the Fed. The Fed can't win.
And that in turn slows global growth, making the dollar shortage
worse and the solvency crisis worse as cash flows fall globally, which makes dollar in even short supply....
So the Fed print more money to try to replace cash flows via fiscal stimulus. Velocity of moneys falls.
Dollar rises since $1 of QE from ECB is worth 4x ...
So the Fed print more money to try to replace cash flows via fiscal stimulus. Velocity of moneys falls.
Dollar rises since $1 of QE from ECB is worth 4x ...
Repeat Ad Infinitum until system finally breaks.
Then figure out a new Non-US Dollar dominated currency system.
This is not a low probability outcome, but it's clearly not a certainty either. But I give it higher odds than most do.
Then figure out a new Non-US Dollar dominated currency system.
This is not a low probability outcome, but it's clearly not a certainty either. But I give it higher odds than most do.
It feels like the next phase of dollar strength is about to start (Yes, I've been saying this for a few weeks now - Im either early or wrong!).
The chart of the Broad Trade Weighted Dollar suggests Im more likely to have been early...
The chart of the Broad Trade Weighted Dollar suggests Im more likely to have been early...
@threadreaderapp unroll
