1/ Q: A few weeks ago, everyone was talking about the "peak" of the #pandemic. Now, not so much. Places are reopening and it feels like everything is going back to normal. Does this mean we're past the peak?
2/
A: A lot of modelers stopped talking about the "peak" as our thinking about longer-term outbreak control matured. It also became clearer that, at least in some places, we are not able to zip up #SocialDistancing enough to make it work well--or it was ending too early.
3/ Case counts are likely to increase as places begin to reopen. This might feel like a scene from the classic Bill Murray film Groundhog Day: another shutdown, new social distancing orders, and everyone talking about #ventilators again.
4/ To help visual and interactive learners learn why, our very own @malia_ailam designed a game! Learn why social distancing works, why it's important to have the same closed set of contacts with set rules, and why opening too early is the worst idea. apl.wisc.edu/covid
5/ You can use this for your kids' end-of-year science projects too. She made it with kids in mind, and even wrote a list of experiments they can try.
Especially relevant here is experiment #4: when can we lift social distancing?
6/
Spoiler alert: if you lift #SocialDistancing as soon as the peak ends, the number of cases goes right back up to an even higher peak.
1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.
2/ Not likely. If your kids are suddenly getting sick a lot, this is likely due to “catching up” on exposures rather than a weakened immune system.
3/ Many families w/ young kids have been hunkered down for the better part of 2 years– a good % of a young child’s entire life. While isolation had *many* downsides, we can agree that not having to suction snot out of infant noses or clean up norovirus puke was a happy upside.
1/ Q: Are cases peaking? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?
A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve).
2/ ➡️ And if the downward slope is *slower* than the rise, we will see *more* cases during the decline from a surge.
3/ Burning fast could be a silver lining of super transmissible #Omicron. Cases rose & fell quickly in S. Africa (w/ hospitalizations & deaths still lagging). The UK appears to have turned the Omicron corner. Many US states appear past their peak in cases, w/ regional variation:
Unfortunately, this includes New Year’s Eve plans. The perfect storm of a new variant & holiday get-togethers is hitting communities & health care w/ FORCE! Testing is in short supply.
3/ Health care is under extreme pressure with surging cases. If you can avoid even one additional contact, you are helping. This is a temporary and urgent request (from a health care provider).