Thread by @sribrahmana

Stackoverflow Developer Survey 2020 results are out :  insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#mo… 

Picture for #Ruby doesn't look good. For me, it has several signs of becoming exotic / niche (like COBOL) than being widespread (like Java). This has huge impact on hiring and talent pool (1/n)

1. % of survey respondents working on Ruby is : 7.1 Decreasing over the years :
2020 - 7.1 (Rank 14)
2019 - 8.4 (Rank 12)
2018 - 10.1 (Rank 13)
2017 - 9.1 (Rank 10)
2016 - 8.9 (Rank 11)
This by itself is not significant, but when read with other metrics it is meaningful (2/n)

2. #rubyonrails is also facing a similar decline in popularity. This year it was at 7.0%
This, of course, could be the bias associated with the developers surveyed. It still, however, shows where the #developer #community is concentrating. More on importance of this below. (3/n)

3. Amongst the people working on #Ruby
- 43% want to continue with it
- 57% do not want to
In previous years: (Want to, Do not)
2019 - 50.3, 49.7
2018 - 47.4, 52.6
2017 - 48.5, 51.5

More people want to leave #Ruby, means quickly shrinking talent pool every year (4/n)

4. Amongst those who do not use #Ruby, the % of them who want to use it : 4.5%
This is new talent coming into #Ruby community.
Applying this to total respondents where 7% are Ruby devs:
Exodus of existing talent = 57% of 7% =~ 4%
New talent interested = 4.5% of 93% =~ 4.1%
(5/n)

If there is 100% conversion of this "interested talent" then #Ruby #talentpool remains unchanged. But we can safely assume that there will not be full conversion. Even an optimistic view of 50% means a shrinking #Ruby talent pool. #rubyonrails also has similar numbers. (6/n)

5. Despite the seemingly decreasing popularity of the language, #Ruby devs seem to be getting highly paid, close to the top. Other languages close by are:
#Perl - Old. Highly niche. Stagnant/Declining
#rustlang - New. Highly niche. Growing
#golang - New. Niche. Growing (7/n)

#Ruby here seems to be tending towards Perl.
Ruby is Old. Niche. The pool / community is comparatively small and seems to be declining in numbers. However Ruby devs are getting paid very well.
My inference is that there are currently several #ruby or #rubyonrails projects (8/n)

from the times when #RoR was a hot thing. Those need developers & hence the premium for existing Ruby devs. Gradually those projects will need only maintenance. As a result opportunities reduce causing even more exodus and less inflow shrinking the pool further. (9/n)

This shrinking results in a drop in the number of new projects using #ruby / #rubyonrails. Together this forms a vicious cycle.
While none of this is a reflection of the language or framework itself, this has a significant impact on business using / planning to use #Ruby (10/n).

This inference is not based only on survey results but also based on my hiring experiences. However there could be several other factors at play apart from language / tech in my experiences, including location. But as a business, I wonder whether Ruby is sustainable choice (11/n)

Ultimately, a business with Ruby project would be requiring devs who will work on Ruby. If less and less devs are interested in working on Ruby, it becomes unsustainable. The importance devs attached to a language / framework is further corroborated in the same SO survey. (12/n)

"Death of Ruby" is not a new claim. For every such claim there are equal or more number of defences and justification that Ruby is not dying but just becoming stable. @yukihiro_matz himself once said that Ruby 3.0 would make it "hot" again. Personally I hope #Ruby thrives (13/13)