Thread by @HeshmatAlavi

THREAD

1)

June 3—Washington

Panel: The Growing Threat from #Iran’s Regime, Snapback of UN Sanctions
pscp.tv/w/1YqKDENDWMaGV

2)
Panelists include:

Hon. John Rood
Amb. Bob Joseph
Amb. Joseph DeTrani
Mr. Olli Heinonen

3)
@A_Jafarzadeh
#Iran's regime is using COVID-19 to have sanctions lifted & further control over Iranian society. We are providing the real picture.
Iran has stepped up its terrorists operations, parallel to their nuclear/missile program. None are supported by the people.

4)
John Rood, former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy:
-Iran is the greatest threat to the U.S. & our allies in the Mid-East
-Iran has played a destructive role in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Bahrain, Afghanistan & Yemen
-Iran not allowing Iraqis determine their future

5)
Rood:
-UN arms embargo is scheduled to end in October of this year, allowing Iran to purchase modern weaponry.
-The regime is not on the same page as the Iranian people.
-JCPOA fueled Iran's meddling across the Middle East. Iran's military spending grew after the nuclear deal.

6)
Rood:
-U.S. should continue the maximum pressure campaign
-Multilateral approach/sanctions are preferable
-U.S. military forces need to continue working with partners in the region
-U.S. needs to continue buttressing relations with Mid-East allies strained by Obama

7)
Ollie Heinonen, Distinguished fellow, Stimson Center; former IAEA Deputy Dir. General
-IAEA to issue new reports on Iran
-Iran is violating its JCPOA obligations. IAEA's March report showed Iran has enough low enriched uranium for one nuclear bomb. Now they have more.

8)
Heinonen:
-Iran can install thousands of new & powerful centrifuges
-If installed Iran enrich uranium at 4x the pace
-Iran can have enriched uranium for a bomb in 2-3 months
-Iran hasn't explained or provide access to its undeclared nuclear work/material near Tehran

9)
Heinonen:
-IAEA should be taking decisive action against Iran
-Iran could be in breach of many obligations
-This could be a threshold on the int'l community's stance vis-a-vis Iran
-Iran has never been in full compliance of its nuclear obligations

10)
Amb. Joseph DeTrani, former Dir. of Nat. Counterproliferation Center
-It's very sad what is happening in Iran with COVID-19. Our sympathy goes out to the Iranian people.
-I didn't support the JCPOA.
-JCPOA has sunset clauses allowing Iran to be free of many restrictions.

11)
DeTrani:
-JCPOA allowed Iran to increase their military budgets & escalate malign activities across the Mid-East.
-Iran transformed in a negative way after the JCPOA.
-Iran seeks to enhance its ballistic missiles.
-The JCPOA provided a path for Iran to pursue nuclear weapons.

12)
Robert Joseph, former Undersecretary of State for Arms Control & Int’l Security:
-Essential to distinguish between regime & Iran's people
-The Iranian people are the first victim of this regime
-This regime has lost all legitimacy & can stay in power only through brute force

13)
Joseph:
-U.S. should recognize the Iranian people's right to determine their future
-We should not & don't need to go to war against this regime
-Regime change must come from the people of Iran
-We can support this through maximum pressure on the regime

14)
Joseph:
-President Trump's policies on Iran have been slowed by forces inside the administration including the VOA
-Our measures are pressuring the regime to change its behavior
-Diplomacy should be directed at isolating, not appeasing, the regime
-Exiting JCPOA was correct

15)
Joseph:
-Iran's Min. of Intelligence should also be sanctioned as a terrorist org
-Further cuts to Iran's oil exports should be imposed
-Iran should be denied of technology
-UN arms embargo should be extended indefinitely; if that fails, U.S. should trigger snapback mechanism

16)
Joseph:
-If Iran resorts to military measures, the U.S. should impose a red line through strength. One example is the killing of Soleimani.
-Obama failed in not imposing his red line on Syria.
-We should support the Iranian people in their question for freedom & democracy.

17)
Rood:
-Elimination of Soleimani extremely critical, important for deterrence
-Iran reacted with the intention to kill, wound & inflict major damage to U.S. military in Iraq
-Hopefully we'll see continued deterrence; always demands careful attention

18)
Heinonen:
-Iran's maintained vital parts of its heavy water program in Arak & they were not covered by the JCPOA. This is one of the deal's technical flaws.
-Arak's reactor was arranged to be redesigned under JCPOA. But Iran is signalling a return to the initial reactor size.

19)
Heinonen:
-IAEA said Iran is not conducting any constructions in Arak. This is not true. Iran is doing construction on the site, just not the core.
-There appears to be a side deal to the JCPOA for the IAEA not to report on anything other than Arak's core.

20)
DeTrani:
-Iran & North Korea continue to have a very close relationship, especially missile technology cooperation.
-This relationship has even been enhanced.

21)
Joseph:
-The regime has a pattern of playing games.
-The problem lies fundamentally in the JCPOA.
-Its foolish to think you can have a sound agreement with this regime due to this regime's nature.
-This regime will remain in power at the expense of its people.

22)
Jafarzadeh:
-Iran's supreme leader is constantly warning about the regime's survival & the threats facing their very existence.
-Iran's diplomats are being expelled.
-Tehran specifically feels threatened by the opposition MEK.
-Maximum pressure policy has weakened Tehran.

23)
Joseph:
-I visited the MEK's site in Albania, Ashraf 3. You can feel the commitment, spirit & dedication of these people to realize a free Iran. They were positive & optimistic, not regretful or revengeful. They are dedicated to bringing democracy & freedom to Iran.

24)
Joseph:
MEK members in Ashraf 3 are key to the resistance inside Iran. When you feel the spirit of this people, there is no doubt why the regime brands the NCRI & MEK as public enemy number one. To me, this is a badge of honor.