1/ Q: Should I get an #antibody test? Will it tell me if I’m immune and able to safely go about daily life?
A: Not yet. While antibody tests are improving rapidly, there are still too many fundamental challenges to using them to determine your *individual* exposure or immunity.
2/ Very briefly, antibody tests are (typically) blood tests that aim to measure previous exposure by testing for the presence of antibodies specific to #COVID19.
These are distinct from the PCR (nasal swab) tests that detect *current* presence of SARS-CoV-2 genetic material.
3/ There are three main limitations of antibody tests for personal use: 1) unknown immunity, 2) false positives, and 3) no clear direction for behavior change
4/ 1) UNKNOWN IMMUNITY: Even for those who had #COVID, we don’t know the extent or duration of immunity conferred. The best current guess is protective immunity for at least 1-2 years. Still, previous exposure isn’t a scientific green light for lack of precautions.
5/ 2) FALSE POSITIVES: Many positive antibody tests will be “false positives.” To see a worked example of why this is the case, I refer you to this nice explainer from COVIDexplained: explaincovid.org/post/understan…
6/ 3) WHAT WOULD YOU DO WITH THIS INFO? For both of the reasons listed above, changing your behavior with regards to #coronavirus prevention, or protecting vulnerable family members after a positive antibody test, at this stage would be unwise.
7/ That being said, antibody tests are SUPER important in helping us develop evidence-based responses to #COVID__19 because they show us the "footprint" of the virus to date.
Here is a previous DP post that explains why: facebook.com/dearpandemic/p…
8/ This article from @TheAtlantic gives a great overview of current issues around antibody testing:
1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.
2/ Not likely. If your kids are suddenly getting sick a lot, this is likely due to “catching up” on exposures rather than a weakened immune system.
3/ Many families w/ young kids have been hunkered down for the better part of 2 years– a good % of a young child’s entire life. While isolation had *many* downsides, we can agree that not having to suction snot out of infant noses or clean up norovirus puke was a happy upside.
1/ Q: Are cases peaking? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?
A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve).
2/ ➡️ And if the downward slope is *slower* than the rise, we will see *more* cases during the decline from a surge.
3/ Burning fast could be a silver lining of super transmissible #Omicron. Cases rose & fell quickly in S. Africa (w/ hospitalizations & deaths still lagging). The UK appears to have turned the Omicron corner. Many US states appear past their peak in cases, w/ regional variation:
Unfortunately, this includes New Year’s Eve plans. The perfect storm of a new variant & holiday get-togethers is hitting communities & health care w/ FORCE! Testing is in short supply.
3/ Health care is under extreme pressure with surging cases. If you can avoid even one additional contact, you are helping. This is a temporary and urgent request (from a health care provider).