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Missed Friday, but I'm back with the daily #chart, with commentary by @reutersMikeD in the thread below. This one is global #COVID19 cases versus the #VIX #volatility index. Volatility has shot up in the last few days, amid a rising number of #infections in Beijing and the U.S.
It shows there really is still nothing more important for macro markets than the trajectory of the virus and shows super sensitivity to any rise infections associated with economies reopening - there was always likely to be some quid pro quo between people returning to work/...
...school/shops/big gatherings and rising infections - we now face the test of this over the coming weeks and market volatility gauges more than cash indices are the real relfection of that trepidation. Whatever governments do to respond may be trumped by a rise in public fear of
going out anyhow - so it matters regardless of lockdowns. On the other hand, China, arguably is acting quickly enough to ensure wider lockdowns are not necessary. Another argument would be that if these scares are contained successfully now, they are still technically part of a..
second quarter that's already been written off economically. Worrying would be signs of a resurgence in Europe now that many lockdowns and travel bans are being lifted more widely.
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