Thread by @therealarod1984

Update to #Texas rise in #SARSCoV2 cases.

Texas 7 day rolling average of cases per day has increased by 118% in the past ten days, going from 1780 to 3881. 34,359 cases total have been reported. How can this be?

Here's an update to the Tweet series I did on Monday...

1/n

Here are 3 pics of 106 mostly smaller Texas counties that have seen 30% OR MORE of their total case numbers be reported in the past 10 days.

The columns are County name, population, cases 3/1 thru 6/13, cases 6/14 thru 6/23, and % of total in the last 10 days

2/n

If you add these counties cases in the past 10 days up, and take out the big number from Travis County, you have 14,313 cases reported in these smaller counties in 10 days. That is 41.65% of the total of 34,359 cases reported for the entire state of Texas

3/n

I went through the list - the following counties all have federal or state prisons located within them

Anderson
Hays
Rusk
Caldwell
Hale
Brazoria
Hidalgo
Bexar
Brazos
Liberty
Lubbock
Galveston
Howard
Live Oak

Some of those counties have some really big numbers past 10 days

4/n

That's just prisons. Not any other congregate setting like Plants or Nursing Homes. And we don't know case numbers coming out of hospitals as they on-board 100% of any new patient coming in for any procedure. Or employment requirements. This list is just prisons.

5/n

We know the below is happening in states that reopened in April/May, they medically shifted to doing all the things we were told needed to happen to reopen: More testing, testing high risk, contact tracing. Well's that obviously happening...

https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1274479176318410758?s=20

6/n

My opinion is these states were told they needed to do all these things to safely reopen, and they are now doing them. As reward, the media is screaming at the results of doing all the things they were supposed to do to safely reopen. Its unfortunate.

7/end

And I do think 2 other things have factored in: The CDC reporting change requiring reporting of "probable cases," and the fact that we seen multiple reports of cases/hospitalizations of foreign nationals. Nothing wrong with treating them, but it should be considered...

8/PS/End

The report comes from the Texas DSHS website, titled "Cases over Time by County," first link on this page

txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…

By the way, I totaled up the cases for these counties in the past 10 days, its 9,655. If you take out Bexar's 3,144, its still 6,511 cases. In 10 days. In counties that mostly have 40-50K total population. #texas #SARSCoV2 #TexasCovid19