Re-posting my estimate of Q1 Fy21 GDP and GDP growth projection for full year 2020-21 : facebook.com/14330692250323…
2/fy21 The Q1 GDP est of -29% by CSO is better than my est of 3 months ago w/o any data, based only on the logic of lockdown & sectors subject to it. Accounting for 10-15% error it's still likely to be close to final value. I stick to my full year FY21 est of -5% (+/-1%)..3/
3/fy21 #GPC #LDE Medical advice given to GOI, was behind the curve in collecting & integrating latest scientific evidence from across the world on novel SARS Corona Virus 2, and in communicating it to public & policy makers. Lives were saved at cost of largest Gdp decline in EMEs
2/gdp Q1 GDP is better than my forecast , but final will be closer to my forecast -10% error. Pls remember that the forecast was made 3 mons ago, before any data was available, based purely on lockdown economics. My full year FY21 forecast remains -5%(+/- 2%).
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