Thread by @BalazsJarabik

#Belarus Election Day (and beyond) THREAD: this is a clash between changing society (its symbol has become Tsoi song "peremen" from the time of USSR collapse) and the ruling elite trying to save the state (not merely #Lukashenka staying in power as it appears) 1/

The politization of #Belarus urban middle class gave a birth to a new opposition - with new candidates, drawing new demographics of voters, demonstrating creativity and seeming spontaneity, as well as yielding greater resources - not the traditional opposition parties. /2

The elections will certainly be (even more than usual - see below) rigged, but the regime does still maintain solid support (based on undisclosed polls at around 35%). It can convince 20% unconvinced voters 3/

https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1292358985711058945

While the urban middle classes are definitely turning on their enabler, this will more likely be #Lukashenka’s Bolotnaya, not Maidan. The latter scenario is supported neither by the overwhelming majority of Belarusians, nor by #Russia and the West. 4/

Neither the new opposition nor the regime have articulated a new vision. During the campaign #Belarus authorities appeared archaic, calling into question their capabilities to carry out the announced modernization, both of the political system and the economy. 5/

The new opposition resembles the old one in terms of no other platform than to oppose the #Lukashenka regime. Large scale privatization – program element of both Babariko and Tsepkalo - will unlikely win heart and minds; and would obviously enable #Russian capital in #Belarus 6/

#Lukashenka mobilized "siloviki" early on (as his usual last resort) before the elections and bet on their loyalty. There have been neither signs of cracks nor panic despite the pressure from the unprecedented scale and number of protests. 7/

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1292107771295535107

The key question for the upcoming days is how the regime will treat protests and protesters. Even though there will be mass protests, the number of protesters will unlikely shatter the regime; more #Minsk is ready to shatter the protests. 8/

Overall, #Belarus elections are a prelude to the arrival of the impact of the economic crisis in autumn that regardless of the electoral fallout will find a regime w/ weakened legitimacy and decreased efficiency. This is a moment when #Russia can escalate the situation 9/

While most politics (even in #Belarus) are local #Russia’s role should not be discounted; neither should the potential of #Minsk to play the #Russian card. The banker Babariko seems to have been a key channel to previously unseen resources toward the opposition. 10/

Going forward, it would be in the best interest of #Belarus to reconcile and reform, otherwise it risks its own demolition. Reconciliation though has never been the strong side of the regime. /END