Major changes in the last 12 hours: A new center of circulation has formed in the depression, and 45 mile per hour (75 km / hr) winds were detected in what is now classified as Tropical Storm #Laura.
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This new vortex location, no less than 70 miles south of where the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had estimated it was located, puts the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic in play.
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Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be issued at 11 AM for everyone, with the possible exception of the Dominican Republic where they may start with a Storm Watch first. In other words, it is now much more likely that storm winds will be felt…
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...and that the rain will exceed the 6 inches (150 millimeters) that NHC initially forecast. The stormy weather would affect Puerto Rico on Saturday and the Dominican Republic on Sunday, especially in the north and east (that is, less for the capital of Santo Domingo).
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From a selfish point of view, this abrupt change is good news for #Florida. A track over the Greater Antilles means that, aside from the dry air that can infiltrate and the wind shear that will be present until tomorrow…
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...the storm will have to deal with the topographic relief of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and possibly Cuba. In other words, this route would keep Laura weak, preventing it from becoming a hurricane until after crossing into the Gulf of Mexico.
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In other words, this route would keep Laura weak, preventing it from becoming a hurricane until after crossing into the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, we will see that less of Florida will remain within the “cone of concern” as drawn by NHC.
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In other words, the risk to the Antilles of a heavy rain event with some storm force gusts — *not* hurricane winds — has increased. Florida's risk of having to deal with a #hurricane has decreased. Laura has been erratic and difficult to predict, so be sure to keep an eye on it.
