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Henrik Zeberg

@HenrikZeberg

Jan 12

Major #BlowOffTop before #Recession. The Recession will be very severe - and cause the largest Market Crash since the Crash of 1929.

This is my Outlook (January 2024)!

In early 2023, I said that I would be met with doubts and a question of "Why Recession?, as the stock market soared into late 2023 - and continues to do so into 2024.

Now we are here! My doubters are rising (and will continue to do so, as the market strengthens coming months)

The arguments are:

1) "We already had the Recession in '22"

2) "Fed is aware and will not allow it"

3) "Fed has changed the Game"

4) "We are in a new liquidity cycle"

5) "It will not be allowed in a Presidential Election year"

..... and so on!

All chitchat - and based in a complete lack of understanding of the Business Cycles.

So - why Recession? (....this is giving more than I should - so stay tuned😉)

First argument is based on our Business Cycle Model developed with Swissblock and @Negentropic_

Our Business Cycle has flashed a Recession signal in 2023. Leading Indicators have crashed under our Equilibrium Line.

In 80 years of data, the Recession Signal from our Model has NEVER been wrong. No false signals - ever!

Second argument goes on the Yield Inversion.

Yield inversion is a signal of coming Recession. Not immidiately - but eventually.

Analysts have observed this signal in 2023 - but due to impatience dismissed it. This is a great mistake.

From the bottom of the Yield Inversion, we normally see 12-15 months before a Recessions sets in. The bottom was in June 2023.

This signal is very much alive!

Read 9 tweets

Henrik Zeberg

@HenrikZeberg

Jan 15, 2022

On Wednesday, we got a CPI print of 7% over the duration of a year. Fastest since 1982! Surely, everybody can see, that #inflation is here to stay!?

NO!

WHY?

Because of the real gauges of inflation which tells us, that current inflation is due to Supply and Demand issues!

Gold Miners will soar, when REAL ECONOMIC INFLATION is here. For now, they are dead in the water - which is 100% in line with Elliott Wave predictions. "Wave C" is unfolding in 5 waves down. As surplus demand is being flushed from the system, Deflation will reemerge

Beautiful chart for GDX. Observe top in 2011 and nice decline into wave A. Then a clear ABC-correction into top in 2020, before Miners again have started a decline. Observe top in 2020! Right at 61.8% fib. Beautiful! 😉
Decline in wave C should take us just below bottom from 2015

Read 6 tweets

Henrik Zeberg

@HenrikZeberg

Jan 10, 2021

@RaoulGMI

@RaoulGMI Good Morning! You asked what is happening to #Gold and #Silver. This is my take - a summary of the governing Thesis on TheZebergReport.com for a long time! Hope you can use the input! 🙋‍♂️🙂

Since ~2000 we have been in Kondratiev's Winter. A period where GLOBAL DEBT causes low and falling growth rates. Central banks try to counter this by printing money (Monetary Stimulus). However, Deflationary forces from debt causes deflations to unfold - despite extreme measures

To the frustration of Central Banks, they cannot create inflation despite extreme money printing. They stimulate by infusing money into the system but cannot make the money circulate. Velocity drops dramatically. What they miss...You cannot solve a solvency problem with Liquidity

Read 14 tweets

Henrik Zeberg

@HenrikZeberg

Nov 22, 2020

Why do I think #Gold, #Bitcoin are about to tumble? Because of my cross-market-analyses approach with >100 charts pointing to a deflationary bust AND the Elliott Wave structures for Gold, Bitcoin and USD. Let's try investigate 1) Deflationary Thesis and 2) Elliott Wave-structures

The Deflationary Thesis is due to the patterns shaping up in all commodities. Commodities drive inflation. First GSCI Commodity Index - a very clear Ending Diagonal Triangle (Descending Wedge). Calls for DEFLATIONARY BUST before MAJOR SECULAR BOTTOM. TheZebergReport.com

#Wheat which is part of #Commodities setting direction for Inflation. Same pattern! Descending Wedge. Calls for Deflationary Bust - before Major SECULAR BOTTOM. Deflation before New Inflationary Regime! TheZebergReport.com

Read 22 tweets

Henrik Zeberg

@HenrikZeberg

May 9, 2020

These are the "events" we experience during Kondratiev's Winter. We have seen some of these but they will play out a range of times. First in 2000-03, then worse during 2007-09 and now the big one 2020-23(?). Some major dominoes are about to fall - before we reach end of Winter

Major events still to be seen (apart from rest which will be repeated and become much worse than before!): 1) Pension fund crisis 2) Run from paper money 3) War (hope not!) 4) Debt resolution (Monetary Reset?). We are NO where near end of this major crisis, which ends K's Winter

My LT #Copper chart tells me, that we may very well see the crisis (with various phases) continue until end-21 or beginning of '22. That is for the bottom in the economic activity which means, that repercussions may be felt way into 2023-25. No where near the end of this crisis!

Read 19 tweets

Henrik Zeberg

@HenrikZeberg

Apr 30, 2020

Some investors, analysts seem to think, that #Equity Bear Market is over and we will rally to ATH. Imo this is naive taking the severe blow to economy into consideration - and the size of the equity bubble which has burst. Some comparisons to earlier Bear Markets provide heads-up

First, Bear Market 2000-02. Rather mild recession due to burst of IT-bubble (somewhat confined) despite extreme Market Cap. to GDP of ~141%. Monetary stimulus had effect as Fed Funds rate >6% at entry of crisis. Still Bear Market for ~638 days and decline of ~50% before bottom

Second, Great Recession 2007-09. Strong recession. Close to Financial World collapse driven by Housing bubble bust. Market Cap. to GDP only at 109%. Monetary stimulus opp. were stretched - QE was introduced. Yet Bear Market for ~517 days with a ~57% decline in stock market value.

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