Good afternoon everyone!

A thread🧵

In October 2022, everybody was Bearish. Falling over themselves in calling for Recession and major Bear Market.

I was on the other side of that crowd. And it was honestly a fairly easy call looking at the Business Cycles. (Yes - it was!)

Leading Indicators (LEI) had NOT crossed over Equilibrium - and thereby sending Recession Signal. And Coincident Indicators (COI) were well above Equilibrium.

NOT the environment for a Recession and Major Bear Market.

We all know how that went!

Today, we have that same situation. Everybody is all "Beared-Up".

All the experts have their views on why the Economy "already is in Recession" - and the US market decline since December 2024 is first leg in a major Bear Market.

This time it is not an as easy call as back in October 2022 - but it is still fairly easy to point out why this is most likely NOT the situation.

My take: The Economy is NOT in Recession. And we are NOT in the first part of a major Bear Market. In fact, Equities and Crypto will soar higher in the final leg.

Why....?

Because the "Recession and Bear Market Thesis" does not "add up"! And people are not looking! Let's first focus on why we don't have a Recession at this point. This one is the easy part.

And this is despite the RECESSION SIGNAL from the LEADING INDICATORS in December 2024. They are an indication, that the Economy is deteriorating - but it may take 2-4 quarters before the Economy rolls into a Recession.

So for now..

.... if a Recession was unfolding at this point, we should be able to observe that in a range of indicators. A "Recession" is not just something that "just happens out of the Blue".

It requires a serious negative feedback loop in particularly the Labor Market, which makes the Economy run backwards. Negative GDP growth for some time. And that would be visible for the observant analyst.

One thing we always observe in the initial phase of a Recession is that short duration yields drop - and drop fast.

This is US 1 year Yields.

We don't see that kind of drop in the yields, as we would expect, if a Recession was here now. And looking at Momentum (RSI) - then the "collapse" in momentum is not happening - as we have seen at the onset of previous Recessions.

Exhibit A that a Recession is NOT unfolding at this point.

Major #BlowOffTop before #Recession. The Recession will be very severe - and cause the largest Market Crash since the Crash of 1929.

This is my Outlook (January 2024)!

In early 2023, I said that I would be met with doubts and a question of "Why Recession?, as the stock market soared into late 2023 - and continues to do so into 2024.

Now we are here! My doubters are rising (and will continue to do so, as the market strengthens coming months)

The arguments are:

1) "We already had the Recession in '22"

2) "Fed is aware and will not allow it"

3) "Fed has changed the Game"

4) "We are in a new liquidity cycle"

5) "It will not be allowed in a Presidential Election year"

..... and so on!

All chitchat - and based in a complete lack of understanding of the Business Cycles.

So - why Recession? (....this is giving more than I should - so stay tuned😉) First argument is based on our Business Cycle Model developed with Swissblock and @Negentropic_

Our Business Cycle has flashed a Recession signal in 2023. Leading Indicators have crashed under our Equilibrium Line.

In 80 years of data, the Recession Signal from our Model has NEVER been wrong. No false signals - ever!

On Wednesday, we got a CPI print of 7% over the duration of a year. Fastest since 1982! Surely, everybody can see, that #inflation is here to stay!?

NO!

WHY?

Because of the real gauges of inflation which tells us, that current inflation is due to Supply and Demand issues! Gold Miners will soar, when REAL ECONOMIC INFLATION is here. For now, they are dead in the water - which is 100% in line with Elliott Wave predictions. "Wave C" is unfolding in 5 waves down. As surplus demand is being flushed from the system, Deflation will reemerge

@RaoulGMI Good Morning! You asked what is happening to #Gold and #Silver. This is my take - a summary of the governing Thesis on TheZebergReport.com for a long time! Hope you can use the input! 🙋‍♂️🙂 Since ~2000 we have been in Kondratiev's Winter. A period where GLOBAL DEBT causes low and falling growth rates. Central banks try to counter this by printing money (Monetary Stimulus). However, Deflationary forces from debt causes deflations to unfold - despite extreme measures

Why do I think #Gold, #Bitcoin are about to tumble? Because of my cross-market-analyses approach with >100 charts pointing to a deflationary bust AND the Elliott Wave structures for Gold, Bitcoin and USD. Let's try investigate 1) Deflationary Thesis and 2) Elliott Wave-structures The Deflationary Thesis is due to the patterns shaping up in all commodities. Commodities drive inflation. First GSCI Commodity Index - a very clear Ending Diagonal Triangle (Descending Wedge). Calls for DEFLATIONARY BUST before MAJOR SECULAR BOTTOM. TheZebergReport.com

Dear all. Please read following: My friend @officialwazzan is looking for software developers to join his startup pofty.com
👉 an ecosystem for labour and services, serving every professional and every profession (the legal ones of 😁)
....Thread 👇👉 👉Ecosystem for physical and virtual labour and services
👉 All professions, not just an area or a niche
👉For the wide use, no boring categories or questionnaires just down to the point

These are the "events" we experience during Kondratiev's Winter. We have seen some of these but they will play out a range of times. First in 2000-03, then worse during 2007-09 and now the big one 2020-23(?). Some major dominoes are about to fall - before we reach end of Winter Major events still to be seen (apart from rest which will be repeated and become much worse than before!): 1) Pension fund crisis 2) Run from paper money 3) War (hope not!) 4) Debt resolution (Monetary Reset?). We are NO where near end of this major crisis, which ends K's Winter

Some investors, analysts seem to think, that #Equity Bear Market is over and we will rally to ATH. Imo this is naive taking the severe blow to economy into consideration - and the size of the equity bubble which has burst. Some comparisons to earlier Bear Markets provide heads-up First, Bear Market 2000-02. Rather mild recession due to burst of IT-bubble (somewhat confined) despite extreme Market Cap. to GDP of ~141%. Monetary stimulus had effect as Fed Funds rate >6% at entry of crisis. Still Bear Market for ~638 days and decline of ~50% before bottom

This is a MASSIVELY Bearish pattern. No question about it! #Gold can rally higher from here (yellow) or it can break from here. But there is nothing Bullish about this. And the speed by which this will be resolved.... whoa!! The resolve is for entire correctional move since 2015! And we have this for US 10 yr. Bullish C wave coming!

Dear all. I will soon launch my website and Macro & Market services. Stay tuned! 🙂As part of the launch, I will arrange a get-together with everybody who wants to join in person. I will do a presentation and we can exchange ideas over lunch and a beer. Free entrance! #HZupdates It will take place in HAMBURG at my friend @KlitgaardEgon's hotel in Hamburg. egonhotel.com/en/ Of course we need to get to other side of #coronavirus. Hence, I cannot be specific about the dates yet. But - we will do 3-4 sessions, or more if needed.

French PMI - Ouch!! #EUR does not like it either. Crash could set in from here!

#Gold is by end of the day and inflation gauge. See strong correlation below. Now - consider what happens to inflation as #Oil and #Commodities plummet! Then think - what may happen to #Gold... yes?! an inflation gauge

No doubt in my mind, that current rally in #SP500 and #equities is a counter-trend move - and that we will soon see a major deflationary CRASH. I have updated my SP500 outlook - some changes! Stay tuned for #HZupdates this afternoon. First - 88 km bike ride to Helsingør 👍 Back - a little tired - but feeling good! 🚴💪 Stay tuned for some #HZupdates - my perspectives on markets.

Good morning! 😀Fed is all in (again!!) - and this time there is a great confidence among traders (again!!) that Fed can has stopped deflation and supplied enough liquidity to the system. But is that really the case? Stay tuned for my perspectives #HZupdates Let me start an nontraditional way - with a zoom in. This is #SP500 1 hour chart. I look for corrections and main directional moves. This is a correctional move - and it may have finalized! So - the main wave will soon set in again. Now - lets zoom out #HZupdates

@RaoulGMI I base forecast on more than just one chart. Not about a level. Firstly, it is a combination of various charts: Silver, USD, TIPS, AUDUSD, Miners, etc. If all point to lower Gold - it is strong indication. And they do! Furthermore, structure of "rally" since 2015 - there is + @RaoulGMI no way imo, that this is the start of a new Bull. It is 100% correctional! Finally, EW is very clear on the count. We still need wave C down - which must drop below 2015-level. Why is the butler the murderer? Because all pieces of evidence points to him :) Besides...+

Trust you are safe! For a long time, I have been forecasting #DEFLATION. We got that! Today, I want to address, why I think we are about to see a NEW ECONOMIC REGIME arise soon - and why #STAGFLATION will be the transformation into the coming Kondratiev Spring #HZupdates We know, that Fed and CBs around the world have been printing money - and lots of it! However, we have failed to see inflation - to the regret of Draghi, Yellen, etc. Despite their efforts, inflation has been in decline. Why? Because Velocity of Money has been in strong decline.

#Deflation unfolding - but as in all moves - we will always see counter-moves or corrections. Last week was such a correction. We must not drop our guard! The economic situation is dire and we are not through the illiquid phase. Major developments ahead! Stay tuned for #HZupdates It is all about #USD. Last week was a retracement in the new strong spike for #DXY = wave ii (blue). Within days, DXY will likely start strong rally higher - reaching min. 109 within weeks. End target will be reached later this year ~122 #HZupdates

Let's take a theoretical approach. From DEFLATION to STAGFLATION. Or from a demand side shock to a supply side shock. The efforts of Governments may exacerbate the problem - and will bring about stagflation.... follow! @dlacalle_IA do you agree? Corona makes Governments shut down countries. Deflationary! Businesses are affected and start to reduce output and close business. Supply reduced! Governments massively stimulates DEMAND side, which increases demand above equilibrium. NET EFFECT = HIGHER PRICES - LOWER OUTPUT!

#Gold Feelings have strong impact on investors. We are in wave 2 of wave C (down). This is the hardest place to stay objective. Sentiments influenced by wave B and wave C. My approach: Observe 1) EW-structure 2) USDJPY 3) Miners 4) Silver 5) TIPS. GOLD IS ABOUT TO CRASH #Silver neg. on Day, #GDX #Miners neg. on Day, #Bitcoin neg. on Day. Massive neg. RSI divergence on #Gold. Major turn in gold is imminent!

#XAUUSD Weekly chart! Take care! #EURUSD and #DXY turning after their corrections. Now - wait for #Gold. Wauw - if feel lucky I'm an EW'er. Then again - it prevents me from participating in the excitement of Fool's rallies....! 😉

Dear all. #Deflation is here as forecasted. #Oil and #Commodities etc. are declining rapidly towards targets I have put up here in #HZupdates. We are still to see the major fall-outs. The situation is dire! CBs are fully committed to sacrifice the currencies to save the economy! #Oil has reach the target of ~20 USD. But - I don't think we have seen the bottom yet! Why? Technical. I think we will see a triangle forming as wave iv - before Oil plunges towards its final target ~10 USD. Deflation not done despite massive CB and fiscal intervention!