Thread by @DesoGames

We are nearly a month later and BOY IS IT WORSE then i thought.

The Definitive August #COMEX #Silver #Shadowcontracts thread!

Summarized; I know I'm right now. The patterns that emerged this month have been enlightening.

COMEX. Is. Dead.

Picture first explanation later! 1/y

https://twitter.com/DesoGames/status/1291401848075751426

I would highly recommend first reading the other thread. But just to summarize; #Shadowcontracts are the contracts that are created, then delivered, on the same day.

This means that open interest goes up by 1, then down by 1, meaning there's 1 delivery to 0 OI change. 2/y

So if open interest changes by -10, but there where 15 deliveries, there where 5 #shadowcontracts.

Open interest being below the number of deliveries isn't a problem, it should simply never be above it.

As shown in the picture, It adds up to quite a few ounces. 3/y

However. #Silver #Shadowcontracts appearing was last months problem. This months problem is worse...

...Because they've stopped.

This follows the explanation (and prediction) i gave last time of "sell paper at the front door while moving the physical out of the back door". 4/y

Thinking like a villain; If your scheme has gone undetected (and i'm in no way large enough to make a difference in this), why would you stop it?

Only one logical reason: There's no more physical to move out of the back door.

Your plan has succeeded. This isn't a movie. 5/y

Whoever took these deliveries, won. They'll be the Nouveau Riche.

Now there was 1 X-factor to the story and that was the September delivery wall. Whether COMEX could or couldn't make it past that wall was the question and the SOLE reason for ALL the price action this month! 6/y

#Silver September Open Interest now stands around 10,5k (depending on the final report);

Which is SUBSTANTIALLY LESS then last month, when it was 16,834 open interest standing for delivery on June 29th.

June 29th price per ounce: $18.064. August 28th: $27.595
7/y

This isn't an issue of money. 10500x5000x$27.595= $1,45 billion. 16834x5kx$18.064= $1,52 billion.

As i've been saying over this past month, the powers that be prefer sideways price action, because that draws the LEAST amount of attention. They where, and are, right. 8/y

However that changes nothing about this number of contracts being FAR too low.

Really? #Gold contracts have been increasing with record deliveries with each wall, #Silver too, and now it drops by 35%?!

And that's not supposed to be suspicious?

There's more. 9/y

What i haven't been screenshotting but kept checking regardless, is the TOTAL open interest across everything.

Now, what happened last time, every time, and is supposed to happen - Most contracts roll over to next month, but some disappear, making total interest drop. 10/y

That's fine, it happens. But manipulation happens hidden in numbers that are usually normal so nobody looks too hard.

Take #gold's total open interest this week:
24th: +1,539
25th: -2,367
26th: -2,007
27th: -3,179
28th: +4,288

But gold isn't massively rolling over atm. 11/y

Here's #Silver Total open interest change this week:
24th: -2,370
25th: -1,090
26th: -4,871
27th: -13,040
28th: -1,102

Compare that with the picture below. I've highlighted the important parts. MOST important is the change in open interest of the Dec contract on the 27th. 12/y

On the day of the Jackson hole speech,

#Silver open interest dropped 13k.

BUT THE ONLY CONTRACT THAT DROPPED IN OPEN INTEREST IS SEPTEMBER.

This LITERALLY MEANS on the 27th of august, 71,82 MILLION ounces of Silver, standing delivery for THE NEXT DAY....

...Went poof. 13/y

This explains the badly skewing of the volume the next day. They un-naked ALL the naked shorts at once.

Not to mention the total amount of #Silver contracts rolling over to the next month, as far as i can remember, didn't exceed 10k per day. Now we have 2 days of 14,5k.
14/y

Every number tells a story.

10,548 contracts x 5000 oz = 52,74 million ounces.

cmegroup.com/clearing/opera…

They claim their #Silver stocks are 208,929,429.898 ounces. So why all this desperation to get OI down to less than 1/4th of that?

The conclusion should be easy now. 15/y

#COMEX does NOT have any silver left to sell or even move out of the back door. They are working on ZERO reserves.

Further evidence comes from others looking at this, such as @MacleodFinance reporting on COMEX adding a ton of #LBMA refineries to its list. 16/y

There's still a chance September makes COMEX crack, but i doubt it. Now that #Silver open interest has dropped THIS low, i think they'll make it. Even with all the shenanigans, they'll come up with 50 million ounces within a month. They don't have to deliver it all at once.
17/y

But again, it's incredibly telling that open interest had to dip THIS low, that #shadowcontracts disappeared early on in the month, the rollercoaster price action in August, the various slamdowns on QUADRUPLE average July volume, all the other news from the community... 18/y

#Gold is in a similar shape. There have been very few Gold shadowcontracts. From the 24th to the 28th, there where JUST 109 in a week.

The gold contract is 100 ounces per bar, so that's only 10,9k ounces of gold, at $1973 an ounce that's ~$22 mil. Tiny for the gold market. 19/y

And, as shown by the picture attached, #Gold's been showing these #shadowcontracts for far longer, in far greater amounts.

This has been going on ever since then. But since this month, the number of both Gold and #Silver shadowcontracts just dropped. 20/y

So what is next?

Well - the next telling figure will be the first day of #comex #Silver deliveries.

This'll be the metal they can just keep in the vault while switching ownership on paper. No movement required, so delivery is instant, just like last time. 21/y

If this number is REALLY high (90% of OI), it won't take a week before the price explodes. AKA, "they don't give a shit" anymore, plan has worked, time to GTFO.

If it's REALLY low (3k/10k contracts for example), the game is still on! Means they're completely out! 22/y

But i genuinely expect them to just make this month.

HOWEVER.

December is toast. They will NEVER make December deliveries.

Because they're putting THIS MUCH EFFORT into delivering just 50 million ounces.

And we're now looking at 3 months of HIGH demand. 23/y

Shortages will increase, because refineries are focussing on gold. Not that that'll help, because this is a Supply/Demand problem.

The real economy is imploding. Massive amounts of money are being printed. Gold/Silver are the sure bets against inflation. People KNOW this. 24/y

They are NOT going to make up a 200 million ounce shortfall in 3 months. NOT with all of this still going on and the economy continuing to implode.

We haven't even had the Mortgage/banking crisis yet! AND congress WILL pass a another stimulus package of AT LEAST $1 trillion 25/y

So what i expect to happen.

Is when we approach December, the total amount of OI for delivery will be brought as low as possible, but they won't make it - and fail delivery on the 2nd or 3rd day (after moving everything they CAN deliver on the first).

And that'll be that. 26/y

For the average joe reading this;

BUY SOME GODDAMN PHYSICAL #SILVER OR #GOLD NOW! If you don't already have it.

For the 1% and up reading this: The 0,01% fucked you. You're fucked. All those dollars will inflate away. Best find another commodity to invest in and quick! 27/y

I'd still expect a lid on things until the November US elections. Especially since the December wall won't hit until after (which is by the way another reason why they'll never make the increased demand at that point, regardless of who wins). But the price'll float. 28/y

Same reason why i don't expect gold to be confiscated. No need - the price can just float, and the elite in charge already has their gold so they're protected from it.

So that's it :D I won't be screenshotting anymore since it has all played out, but i'll keep tabs. 29/y

I'd expect a small trickle of shadowcontracts until it all comes down. Every bar out of the back door is worth it's weight in gold, pardon the pun.

If there's change, i'll post about it. Tagging friends!

@PalisadeRadio @chrismartenson

30/END

Since i'm expecting more eyeballs on this thread soon (and i can only pin One tweet😑); I'ma just add this at the bottom.

It's a megathread that basically contains everything i invested in in the stock market and i explain why. If anybody is interested.

https://twitter.com/DesoGames/status/1298620118277206016

Since this is out now i'll post it here too for Archival purposes.

@PalisadeRadio was kind enough to pick up on this story and give me a chance to explain it in more detail! Please check it out and give them a like, they definitely deserve it!

https://twitter.com/PalisadeRadio/status/1301048508057870336

Archiving!

@goldsilver_pros interviewed me and we went deeper into the data; some more shenanigans; i bring charts from the jackson hole slam and more!

Check him out cause he's done his own digging in other videos and i don't catch everything either!