Thread by @MaedaBiotech

I had a similar discussion in a forum recently and this was my opinion. A thread..

As long as we started monitoring COVID in Africa from Feb 2020 then there will be lots of unexplained observations.
IMHO

https://twitter.com/Fredros_Inc/status/1301416557357273089

1) The #SARSCoV2 most likely entered #Africa way before Feb 2020, probably October 2019. Unfortunately archiving of clinical #nasopharyngeal swabs is challenging, so we might not know for sure ...

2) Most Africans like so many in other parts of the world have had infections with non-#COVID19 #coronaviridiae during their lifetime so if the cross reacting #Tcell stories are to be believed then lots of people already had them and might have offered some sort of protection

3) What might be unique for most African countries is the significant interaction with potential hosts/reservoirs of novel coronaviridiae in urban-wildlife interface areas. Adding yet another layer of inoculum etc from early ages and with repeated exposure might have memory cells

4) #Africa is a really young continent with a tried and tested immune system. Expecting morbidity and mortality rates of Italy, Spain etc to be replicated in Africa would be to discount this as a factor completely. Something data from the whole world isn't doing.

5) The DHS did a presentation at the White House some months back about influence of UV, humidity, temperature etc if that data is to be believed then it might explain why most African countries which are in the tropics have had a different trajectory, UV exposure is quite high.

6) If I've understood the reports from across the world correctly, most of the morbidity and mortality cases are from vulnerable groups (elderly and/or those with preexisting conditions) and one reason for the numbers in Italy and Spain may have been multigenerational households.

The elderly and/or other vulnerable groups get exposed easily from their kids and/or grandkids. If I'm not mistaken, most of our elderly have historically been in upcountry and/or rural areas while the youth flock the cities.

In the village, most of the elderly are already on some sort of default social distancing 🤔. Meanwhile in the cities the street hawkers & other day workers is walking the streets for over 12 hours daily exposed to #UV etc. That might give you some positive health outcomes 🤷🏽‍♂️

7) Also if I remember correctly there was a recent report of a locus of neanderthal origin that increases susceptibility to #SARSCoV2. If those reports are to be believed, I'm wondering how many Africans have that locus🤷🏽‍♂️. Maybe @mzahir89 has some idea

8) Then there's always the assumption that we got a different strain but there hasn't been enough genomic data I think for that argument, so... 🤷🏽‍♂️

@threadreaderapp unroll please