Rijo M. John Profile picture
Sep 11, 2020 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
👉10 Sep: India crossed 4.5M reported #COVID19 cases & 76304 deaths
👉This thread shows important trends national, state & district level
6.3 lakh new cases & 7735 deaths were added in the past one weeks
About 7.4M tests were done during this period (TPR 8.6%)
(1/n) Image
👉Cases growing at the rate of 2.1% & remained steady over a week
👉Average growth of active cases increased to 1.9%
👉Daily tests averaged 10.6L past 7 days
👉Daily deaths ~1100 level (2/n) Image
👉Tests & cases growing almost at the same rate
👉Of the 5.4 crore tests done so far only about 2.7 crores are RT-PCR
👉Most state daily bulletins do not provide break-up of test results by test type
(3/n) Image
👉Chattisgarh in the only state with 7-day avg growth >5%
👉Number of states with <5% TPR is shrinking
👉Maharashtra stands out with very high daily TPR as it is still doing very low number of tests per million (< Indian avg.) & reporting highest daily cases
(4/n) Image
👉Mortality rate at 1.7%
👉High MR in MH, GJ & PB
👉MH again stands our whether one looks at MR based on reported cases or per million population
(5/n) Image
👉The daily reported numbers from y'day across states
👉Ladakh & Delhi did highest tests per million per day y'day
👉Many larger and high burden states like MH, UP, WB, MP, RJ etc doing low tests per million per day
(6/n) Image
👉Trends in daily test per million per day and test positive rate across states with at least 20K reported cases
👉KA, BR, UT, Goa etc reducing daily tests per million
(7/n) Image
👉Top 50 districts in India in terms of total cases
👉53% of cases & 66% of deaths now come from these districts
👉This was 57% of cases & 69% just three weeks ago
Delhi, Mumbai, Thane, and Aurangabad seeing a rebound in cases after declining for several days
(8/n) ImageImage
➡️Lastly, here is the projected trajectory of cases till Sept 30, as projected on Aug 24. This has been right on track till now. (n/n)

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Rijo M. John

Rijo M. John Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RijoMJohn

Dec 8, 2023
The schools in my area remain closed today because the Chief Minister of my state is traveling on a custom-modified BharatBenz luxury coach with many of his ministers for a public outreach program that purportedly aims to highlight the government's achievements to the public.
1/4 Image
For the past few days, I've been hearing announcements through loudspeakers mounted on moving vehicles about this grand bus tour with a cavalcade through our areas. Schools in respective areas will remain closed as it passes through all 140 assembly constituencies of Kerala.
2/4
While the opposition @INCKerala has been largely silent & content with trolling via social media, the court has emerged as a saving grace, commendably compelling the government to rescind many of its excessively absurd directives aimed at enhancing its outreach.
3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 30, 2022
"Where Mahalanobis and India led, the rest of the world has followed, so that today, most countries have a recent household income or expenditure survey. Most countries can only envy India in its statistical capacity" Wrote Prof. Angus Deaton, a Nobel laureate in economics.
+ Image
He was writing about India's National Sample Survey, established in 1950. Hindustan Times newspaper in 1953 hailed it as "the biggest and most comprehensive sampling inquiry ever undertaken in any country in the world".
+
Economists TN Srinivasan, Rohini Somanathan, Pranab Bardhan and another Nobel-winner Abhijit Banerjee have since argued that there is "no other instance of an entirely homegrown institution in a developing country becoming a world leader in a large field of general interest".
+
Read 7 tweets
Feb 4, 2022
*⃣Thread on #COVID19 deaths*⃣
Officially reported C19 deaths in India crossed half a million (500087) although many studies estimate the true number to be between 3-4 million.

This chart shows % share of reported deaths & compares it with the % adult population in each state.
1/
Some states stand out on this chart:
#Kerala with only 2.84% of adults has reported 11.3% of all deaths.
#Maharashtra with 9.7% adults reported 28.6% of deaths.
#Uttarpradesh with 15.7% of adults reported only 4.7% of deaths.
#Bihar w/ 7.8% adults reported just 2.5% of deaths.
2/
#Gujarat with 5.2% adults reported only 2.1% deaths.
#Rajasthan with 5.5% adults reported just 1.9% of deaths.
#Telangana with 3% adults reported only 0.8% deaths.
3/
Read 10 tweets
Aug 26, 2021
All the focus is on #Kerala's #COVID19 cases as it contributed ~68% of new cases in India y'day.

Politically, it's become a major tool of attack against the state & its government.

This thread tries to make some sense of the COVID19 numbers from Kerala.

1/
Many are asking why Kerala is reporting so many cases while the rest of India seems to have flattened it.

Yet, I'm actually surprised why Kerala is reporting only so many cases when it should be actually reporting 40K+ daily cases already.

2/
The current rise in cases was inevitable with the somewhat irrational lockdown relaxations & increased mobility that is visible over the past several weeks. It is only the reduced testing that is still holding the reported cases well below 40K.


3/
Read 17 tweets
Aug 4, 2021
Prof. @MenonBioPhysics, @nebuer42, & I prepared a set of recommendations on #Kerala's #COVID19 management, part of which was appeared in today's @Malayla_Manoram.

It pertains to suggested changes in the current lockdown policy of the state, vaccinations, etc.
1/
Recommendations on lockdown.
2/
Recommendations on vaccination.
3/
Read 4 tweets
Jul 30, 2021
This thread on why #Kerala’s #COVID19 numbers still not falling & my subsequent tweet on ICMR 4th serosurvey has exponentially increased the level of troll activity on my TL

I love data & let me dispel more misconceptions with data so the trolls can keep earning their bread.
1/
First of all, I feel pity for these trolls wasting their time on a state whose healthcare infra has never collapsed at any time during this pandemic.

Here's the current usage of health infra in Kerala. Don't you worry, the state will sail through even at 40K daily cases.
2/
One major argument against my original thread was that I used an old ICMR serosurvey. Yes, because a new one was not yet available. When it became available, it didn't change a thing. See the article I wrote deriving same conclusions using 4th survey.
3/
science.thewire.in/health/why-is-…
Read 14 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(