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exador23 Profile picture
@exador23
Sep 20, 2020 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
The spread of #BobcatFire to the N creates a precarious situation. A Santa Ana event with winds from NE would align with topography and burn through the western forest very quickly, reaching Sunland/Tujunga in a matter of days. (google earth map facing SW)
Very few ridge-tops perpendicular to santa ana wind vector (red arrows) that could serve as possible lines of defense - just 2 in the middle, but the canyons on either side are aligned with the winds. (yellow lines and circles) #BobcatFire
This makes me feel better. They are working on dozer lines to the south and west of the NW perimeter. (the X-X-X)

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More from @exador23

exador23 Profile picture
Sep 20, 2020
Dropping "% Contained" as a metric media and fire agencies use is long overdue. The public doesn't understand it and never will. Because it's a % people think it refers to the likelihood that a fire will spread instead of just being ratio of hose line secured edge to perimeter.
Even if the fire this couple died in really was at 51% containment, if those lines were on the opposite side of the fire from them, it would be meaningless for their safety.
Similarly, when % Contained drops, people panic because they think it jumped a containment line, when it reality that almost always just means the uncontained perimeter grew.
Read 5 tweets
exador23 Profile picture
Apr 26, 2020
I'm going to have to stop following this fool. He might understand statistics but doesn't understand disease, epidemics or testing.

unchecked the number infected doubles every 3 days. due to lack of testing we have to have criteria for those tests. i.e. only people w symptoms..
Let's assume only 50% of those infected get symptoms. insufficient testing means the case counts are wrong, but if you keep the criteria for testing consistent, the trend will be accurate. The trend is the important metric. It tells you whether actions are working or not.
unchecked, 1000 ppl infected will become 2000 then 4000 then 8000 then 16000 over 12 days. If only 50% get symptoms, and the criteria is to test people with symptoms, then you need to test 500 then 1000 then 2000 then 4000 then 8000.
Read 5 tweets
exador23 Profile picture
Apr 14, 2020
Covid is helpful in understanding the time-shifted mechanisms of the #ClimateEmergency. We are currently in the "Still allowing Spring Break and Mardi Gras to happen" phase, with full knowledge that those actions are LOCKING IN the effects down the road.
The window for effective action on the #ClimateEmergency closes in less than 12 years. Actions taken after the death toll becomes shocking are actions taken far too late. Astronomical death tolls are already locked in by then.
The delay in between covid actions and hospitals being overwhelmed is about 2 weeks - with an additional 2 week delay before said actions materialize into death metrics. the delay from climate action to seeing the effects are on the scale of decades.
Read 5 tweets
exador23 Profile picture
Mar 5, 2020
I wish people would get it. We have less than 12 YEARS to take BOLD action on the #ClimateEmergency. Once the permafrost really goes, the earth will emit more greenhouse gasses than humans do currently. NOTHING we do at that point can stop the inevitable.
Biden doesn't do enough. IF he wins in Nov, we're stuck with him in 2024 too. And he'll lose the Congress & the states like Obama did. So by the time someone who supports real climate action can be elected, they can't pass anything in a deeply red congress.
Therefore, if he is the nominee, I will vote Green Party. The absolutely hellish last decades of life on the planet under runaway global warming would make 4 more years of Trump look like a nice vacation at a posh spa.
Read 4 tweets
exador23 Profile picture
Feb 23, 2020
#electability

This poll had a sample size of 10k. The largest I've ever seen. MorningConsult will occasionally hit 7-8k
"But National polls are worthless because of the electoral college. handwave handwave. Clinton. OMG we're all going to die"

The only modern examples of popular vote vs electoral college contradictions are Al Gore with 0.5% margin and HRClinton with 2% margin.
So to be safe, let's turn that +3% Sanders margin into a +5% margin instead of spreading weak fear mongering like Russian Meddling or OMG Socialism or All His Supporters Are Assholes or unfounded age & health concerns.
Read 5 tweets
exador23 Profile picture
Nov 22, 2019
Kudos to Buttigieg for bringing up the key role #RegenerativeAgriculture must play in any plan to mitigate the #ClimateCrisis during the #DemDebate. Bonus for recognizing the need to shift the climate issue towards inclusion of farmers & rural areas instead of pushing them away Image
One of the best ways to turn farming communities against any #ClimateEmergency plan is by harping on meat consumption. I remember when Iowans started burning Beatles records because Paul McCartney said he was a vegetarian.
Meat only has an excessively high carbon footprint if you erroneously include methane farts which are part of the ~natural~ carbon cycle. Focus on re-integrating livestock with #RegenerativeAgriculture practices to rebuild SOC & all food production goes carbon negative
Read 4 tweets

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