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Sep 23, 2020 14 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Our BRAND NEW report on what no deal would mean is out today

Our experts are giving a briefing on the report this morning...

(Thread)

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
. @jillongovt: "No deal now is not the same as last year because the financial settlement, citizens' rights and Northern Ireland were dealt with in the Withdrawal Agreement."

#NoDealBrexit
. @jillongovt: "There could be extensive disruption at the UK-EU border."

"Lots of #Brexit officials were redeployed to #Covid_19 and some things are running late."

#NoDealBrexit
. @jillongovt: "We're nowhere near having the number of customs officials trained that we need."

"Businesses have been struggling with #Covid_19 so have not been focused on #Brexit preparations."

"We're in for a difficult few months."

#NoDealBrexit
. @jdportes: "There are some positive signs in the UK economy, which looks not too far off a V-shaped recovery."

"However, there are substantial risks just as the furlough scheme is being phased out."

#NoDealBrexit
. @jdportes: "Tariffs would be an automatic result of no deal - the UK's would be similar to the EU's. They would be significant for some sectors such as cars and food."

"But no deal is about more than tariffs and borders, it would have substantial effects across sectors."
. @jdportes: "The politics of no deal could mean fewer mitigations are put in place."

"There are some reasons to think #Covid_19 could obscure some economic effects of no deal, but it does not make sense to layer further economic disruption on top."

#NoDealBrexit
. @jdportes: "In the short term, Covid will have a bigger economic impact than no deal, but over the long term no deal will be more substantial."

#NoDealBrexit
. @hayward_katy: "The Northern Ireland protocol is there to avoid a land border and a hard sea border."

"No deal would mean that more GB goods would subject to tariffs and checks moving to Northern Ireland, risking a serious economic break."

#NoDealBrexit
. @hayward_katy: "If the Northern Ireland protocol is undermined, the risk of a land border comes back into play."

"It would risk political stability in Northern Ireland - no deal is not an event, it would set the tone for the future relationship."

#NoDealBrexit
. @CSBarnard24: "The really last moment for any deal might be around 15 November."

"We don't know if a deal would be mixed or exclusively EU - leaked documents have suggested the latter, with nothing on law enforcement."

#NoDealBrexit
. @CSBarnard24: "The #InternalMarketBill gives ministers powers to amend the UK legislation implementing the Withdrawal Agreement."

"The breaches relate to state aid, exit declarations (NI to GB) and direct effect of EU law."

#NoDealBrexit
. @CSBarnard24: "The government's concerns about food sales from GB to NI are not dealt with in the #InternalMarketBill."

"The bill turns off the principle of direct effect of EU law and makes it almost impossible to judicially review the legislation."

#NoDealBrexit
. @CSBarnard24: "The government did not anticipate the huge backlash against the #InternalMarketBill. The EU has argued it breaches the principle of good faith."

"The UK is breaching international law under the Vienna Convention, domestic problems can't be used as an excuse."

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More from @UKandEU

Jun 18
📢 PANEL 1: Northern Ireland

👥 Our first panel has begun, with @DPhinnemore, @hayward_katy, Martin Fraser @IrelandEmbGB, & @jillongovt.

📊 David & Katy will present their latest polling then the panel will consider what’s next for politics in NI


Image
🗣️ "There is support for these arrangements...even if they are just getting over a majority".

📈@DPhinnemore unpacks the data from the latest report "testing the temperature", and the Protocol/Windsor Framework.
@DPhinnemore 📊 "The level of trust in the UK government is very low"

@DPhinnemore unpacks the data on levels of trust in managing Northern Ireland's interests in relation to the post-Brexit arrangements.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 15, 2021
🔊The Prime Minister has delivered his big speech on the 'levelling up' agenda ⬇

But what do we already know about 'levelling up'?

And what does the research show about how regional equality can be achieved?

Read this #ThursdayThread to find out more!🤳
Reflecting on lessons from elsewhere in Europe on how to achieve regional economic convergence, @thomasforth @ODILeeds @TheDataCity argues for a commitment to invest more in skills, transport, research and development & culture in cities across the UK👇👇

ukandeu.ac.uk/regional-inequ…
@michaelkenny_ & @TKelsey915 lay out the evidence that 'a top-down plan for place-based intervention, based upon bilateral negotiations with local areas, runs the risk of enforcing the priorities & orthodoxies of the centre'📝

ukandeu.ac.uk/long-read/leve…

@Dept_of_POLIS
Read 5 tweets
Jul 14, 2021
Our #AcademicintheSpotlight series promotes academics producing thought-provoking work on the UK’s changing relationship with the EU. This week, we feature @fiona_costello – who works on the @EUmigrantworker project at @cambridgelaw.

Find out more 👇👇

ukandeu.ac.uk/eu-migrant-wor…
@fiona_costello's research looks at the impact of Brexit on EU nationals in the UK, and how these problems are being resolved by community advice organisations.

Watch this to find out more ⬇⬇

As well as working as an academic, Fiona works with @GyrosOrg to help EU nationals access legal advice and support – allowing her to understand everyday problems facing EU nationals on the frontline.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 3, 2021
Our next #IsolationInsight event on 'The Future of the EU' is about to start

Speakers:

@HelenHet20
@simonjhix
@lisaocarroll
Loukas Tsoukalis
@anandMenon1 (chair)

Watch LIVE here:

We'll be live-tweeting from this thread...
.@simonjhix: "In the medium term, Brexit is a challenge to the EU. There will be a UK model of exit."

"At some point, the UK model will seem quite attractive, which could be politically very difficult for the EU."
.@HelenHet20: "The EU's reaction to #Brexit was primarily defensive, but there was an opportunity to face the euro-ins and euro-outs question head on."

"Instead, it was seen as a potential long-term threat to the EU's credibility."
Read 33 tweets
Sep 24, 2020
Yesterday we released a NEW report #WhatWouldNoDealMean.

And, you've guessed it, this report is the subject of today's #ThursdayThread. 🧵

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
.@BorisJohnson has said that no deal with the EU would be a “good outcome” for the UK.

This report highlights what it would mean in terms of trade, fisheries, connectivity, the impact on citizens, Northern Ireland, economics, security, foreign policy, politics and more.
On #trade, the two sides would revert to #WTO rules.

We’re talking tariffs, customs checks, and regulatory checks. In other words, increased hassle, increased time and increased costs for businesses trading with the EU.

@CSBarnard24 explains.
Read 14 tweets
Sep 22, 2020
Our Director @anandMenon1 will be speaking at the @LordsEUCom Security and Justice Sub-Committee shortly

Follow the session here: parliamentlive.tv/event/index/a0…
.@anandMenon1: "Both sides need to find a way to work with each other on foreign and security policy."

"They're not negotiating partly because @theresa_may tried and failed, and because UK domestic politics have hardened."

@LordsEUCom
. @anandMenon1: "Sovereignty is not such an issue on foreign and defence - it's as much about optics."

"Foreign policy is being underprioritised by both sides. This is not just the UK - the question is whether the EU is willing to accept the UK is not any other 3rd country."
Read 13 tweets

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