Xi's UN speech w commitment to CO2 peak *before* 2030 is significant fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_6…
Its "Green Revolution" framing is also driven by domestic opinion that's angry about joblessness & the megafloods of 2020 where millions suffered in farms & cities
China's 40y miracle manages to piss everyone off:

WorldBank: bastards didnt do Washington Consensus
Nationalists: richest dude is Taiwanese & most FDI comes from Japan/US
Left: You privatized half the State?
Greens: Coal & Concrete
Pentagon: We made a Monster
#GeopoliticsOfGHGs
Isn't stabilising dangerous warming in US national interest? Here's former secretary of state James Baker & Shultz making the case for green detente & linkage under conditions of mutually assured destruction. #GeopoliticsOfGHGs clcouncil.org/reports/Foreig… Image
Pit of stomach 15 months after posing #GeopoliticsOfGHGs question. Corona & Climate shocked world aghast as US-China in tense standoff in S China seas on Taiwan Q; Indian & 🇨🇳armies in Himalayas; & Xi offers climate neutrality to peel EU off US @adam_tooze
Image
28/ Bluntly: You either get a Cold War with China or you get Climate action. You can't get both.

John Kerry has his work cut out. Briefs on greening US-China relations @njtmulder @DebSeligsohn @kellysgallagher #GeopoliticsOfGHGs quincyinst.org/symposium/gree…
29/ China's oil company CNOOC on Pentagon blacklist for its offshore exploration in South China Sea & US desire to counter mil-industrial complex. US investors hold ~15% of shares given year to divest. Its global partners inc Exxon/Total #GeopoliticsOfGHGs defense.gov/Newsroom/Relea…
30/ 190 of 197 nations ratified 2015 Paris Agreement. Wall Street & China want to limit warming. Yes, there is powerful opposition,& escapist elites but is Climate politics Existential?
@adam_tooze on squaring the circle & #GeopoliticsOfGHGs of past 30yrs e-flux.com/journal/114/36… Image
31/ “In an increasingly black-and-white world where liberal democracies face an existential challenge from authoritarians and populists, Merkel still sees gray...In her view, attempts to isolate & contain China can only lead to disaster” #GeopoliticsOfGHGs foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/31/wha…
32/John Kerry wants to make Climate cooperation the priority of US-China policy. Hawks in DC want to make containment the priority. We wrote about MAD dilemma & argument for a modus vivendi here @policytensor policytensor.com/2019/05/23/fea… brookings.edu/blog/order-fro… Image
33/ Enthusiasm on #energytwitter for Biden's Climate personnel & ambitious policies is understandably sky high after 4 dismal years. Those who pay attention to foreign policy can see huge obstacles ahead. Excellent piece by @KateAronoff #GeopoliticsOfGHGs newrepublic.com/article/160992…

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More from @70sBachchan

25 Dec 20
Between the pandemic & california mega fires & american dysfunction 2020 has been Mike Davis' cassandraesque year. But every time you think he's hit Peak Bleak, turns out he's still climbing... substack.sashafrerejones.com/p/friday-decem…
thankfully mike davis was completely wrong about the uneven burden of Covid. It hit poor countries of the subcontinent & africa much less than richer europe & americas.
Terrible as covid-19 is, a reminder that it could have been deadlier. Spanish flu killed the young more than the old. 60% of global mortality, some 20 million of 1918-19's toll was in India. Industrial Agriculture & inequality as Mike Davis warns will eventually produce a monster
Read 6 tweets
13 Nov 20
The definition of ideology is that it is immune to empirical refutation. Facts literally bounce off it.
2/ Scientists who have to pay attention to how reality works & not ideological words are devastatingly clear as to which governments least followed science in dealing with COVID-19.
economist.com/graphic-detail… Image
3/ Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, or find prettier ways to talk about it, or ignore it, doesn't go away. The 21stC is the Age of Consequences — of reality biting back, and we must learn to bend to its will. #viraltime #climatechange
Read 16 tweets
30 Sep 20
Neither the first case on West Coast or Germany in mid-January snowballed. It was chain of transmission from China to Italy to NYC in early Feb that sparked transatlantic explosion.

Francis Collins on latest research integrating phylogenetics & travel directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/09/22/how…
1st mea culpa of WHO's line that precautionary travel restrictions are ineffective @adam_tooze. Tellingly, comes about in "wealth before health" lawsuit in Austrian ski resort.
nytimes.com/2020/09/30/wor…
E Asian govts did restrictions/screening passngrs/hotel quarantine in realtime Image
WHO anti-travel restrictions line was classic science & politics contest. This is @HelenBranswell Jan 26th report after vote to declare intl emergency went 50-50.
"Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New Coronavirus" statnews.com/2020/01/26/con… Image
Read 13 tweets
24 Sep 20
"Get rid of the ballots & you'll have a very peaceful - There won't be a transfer, frankly. There'll be a continuation"
Trump refuses a peaceful transfer of power if he loses in November
news.yahoo.com/trump-campaign…

Getting clear that Military will be required defenseone.com/ideas/2020/08/…
At the moment of constitutional crisis on Jan 20th, 2021, will US military escort the former president from the White House or do nothing & watch Black Lives Matter plaza become Tahrir Square?

Open letter to Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Milley defenseone.com/ideas/2020/08/… Image
3/ US will need a pacted transition to incentivize Trump leaving, w minimum violence. Republican & Dem elites will have to remove his fear of prosecution for manifest crimes. People protesting on streets cannot credibly commit to amnesty. ht @TomPepinsky
tompepinsky.com/2020/07/27/the…
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep 20
"Achieving carbon neutrality requires eliminating most fossil fuel use in power generation, heating, industry & transport...IF it is made the guiding vision for invstmt, innovation & policymaking in China"-@laurimyllyvirta

Litmus test: Canceling new Coal energyandcleanair.org/china-2060-car…
Climate is Natl Security policy is Industrial policy is Econ policy #GeopoliticsOfGHGs

Its a Market mover, a Oil & Gas importer vulnerable to blockades, an "Electrostate", a Green Power Politics move, a ecologically fragile state all rolled into one economist.com/briefing/2020/…
"Chinese companies have invested in mines from DRC to Chile..securing access to minerals needed for solar panels,electric vehicles...
Unable to be a Petrostate, it is becoming an Electrostate, investing strategically all along the chain from mine to meter" economist.com/briefing/2020/… Image
Read 33 tweets
14 Sep 20
Who else is feeling the cognitive dissonance of today's extraordinary claim of possible microbial life signature on Venus while we crash earth's ecosystems.

Good day to revisit @KenCaldeira's 2018 Carl Sagan lecture on our mad, bad, exceptional species! kencaldeira.wordpress.com/2019/02/10/car… ImageImageImage
Carl Sagan made his scientific name analysing Venus' atmosphere & proposed its runway greenhouse gas effect.

Life in the Clouds of Venus (1967)
nature.com/articles/21512…



A bittersweet day.
Read 10 tweets

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