Rijo M. John Profile picture
Sep 28, 2020 13 tweets 9 min read Read on X
27 Sep: India crossed 6M reported #COVID19 cases & 95574 deaths. Only 9.6L active cases
👉Beyond the rosy recovery rates, follow this thread to know important trends upto dist. level that matters
👉1M new cases & 12K deaths were added in the past 11 days

(1/n)
👉Cases growth (1.5%) has decreased considerably over a week
👉7-day avg. daily cases showed some decline & is beginning to look up again
👉Daily active cases rebounding after being in -ve territory for few days
👉Daily tests average 10.8L last week
👉Daily deaths ~1095 (2/n)
👉Growth of tests barely above that of cases now
👉Daily TPR at 8.2% and has shown a marginal decline over the past 2 weeks
👉52% of all tests so far are Rapid antigen
👉Most states do not report test results by type of tests
(3/n)
👉There is considerable variation in the aggregate daily testing reported by all states together and that by ICMR.
👉This variation (taken as 7-day avg.) reached a high of 2L few days ago and is now on a decline again
👉Shows the serious reporting problems
(4/n)
👉Kerala has the highest avg. daily growth of cases at 3.7%
👉Only about 7 states got TPR<5% now
👉Very high TPR in MH, Goa & SK
(5/n)
👉Although the country has a relatively low mortality rate at 1.57% the variation across states is high
👉 high MR in states such as MH, GJ, PB & DL are worrying
👉Many north eastern states & KL has very low MR
(6/n)
👉Trends in mortality rates for both closed cases (recovered+deceased) and total cases
👉Both these rates are suppose to converge by the end of pandemic
👉High variations in these rates are apparent in most states
👉The mortality rate is going up in AS, GA & HP
(7/n)
👉The daily reported numbers from y'day across states
(8/n)
👉Trends in daily new cases across states.
👉Some of the states like KA & TS showing signs of rebound in cases
👉Others like KL, RJ & MN are reporting new highs daily
(9/n)
👉Trends in daily test per million per day and test positive rate across states with at least 20K reported cases
👉Karnataka, West Bengal & Jharkand seem to be reducing daily tests even as TPR is increasing
(10/n)
👉51.7% of cases & 63.6% of deaths now come from top 50 districts
👉This share has consistently declined indicating the wider spread
👉Bengaluru Urban, Pune, Mumbai, Kolkata, Thiruvanathapuram, Coimbatore, Indore, Jaipur etc. are all reporting new daily highs on avg.
(11/n)
TL;DR: India is fighting not only a COVID19 pandemic, but also a pandemic of bad data reporting across states. Authorities need to realize that good data reporting is the key for public policy making & can only aid in controlling the pandemic itself
(n/n)

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More from @RijoMJohn

Dec 8, 2023
The schools in my area remain closed today because the Chief Minister of my state is traveling on a custom-modified BharatBenz luxury coach with many of his ministers for a public outreach program that purportedly aims to highlight the government's achievements to the public.
1/4 Image
For the past few days, I've been hearing announcements through loudspeakers mounted on moving vehicles about this grand bus tour with a cavalcade through our areas. Schools in respective areas will remain closed as it passes through all 140 assembly constituencies of Kerala.
2/4
While the opposition @INCKerala has been largely silent & content with trolling via social media, the court has emerged as a saving grace, commendably compelling the government to rescind many of its excessively absurd directives aimed at enhancing its outreach.
3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 30, 2022
"Where Mahalanobis and India led, the rest of the world has followed, so that today, most countries have a recent household income or expenditure survey. Most countries can only envy India in its statistical capacity" Wrote Prof. Angus Deaton, a Nobel laureate in economics.
+ Image
He was writing about India's National Sample Survey, established in 1950. Hindustan Times newspaper in 1953 hailed it as "the biggest and most comprehensive sampling inquiry ever undertaken in any country in the world".
+
Economists TN Srinivasan, Rohini Somanathan, Pranab Bardhan and another Nobel-winner Abhijit Banerjee have since argued that there is "no other instance of an entirely homegrown institution in a developing country becoming a world leader in a large field of general interest".
+
Read 7 tweets
Feb 4, 2022
*⃣Thread on #COVID19 deaths*⃣
Officially reported C19 deaths in India crossed half a million (500087) although many studies estimate the true number to be between 3-4 million.

This chart shows % share of reported deaths & compares it with the % adult population in each state.
1/
Some states stand out on this chart:
#Kerala with only 2.84% of adults has reported 11.3% of all deaths.
#Maharashtra with 9.7% adults reported 28.6% of deaths.
#Uttarpradesh with 15.7% of adults reported only 4.7% of deaths.
#Bihar w/ 7.8% adults reported just 2.5% of deaths.
2/
#Gujarat with 5.2% adults reported only 2.1% deaths.
#Rajasthan with 5.5% adults reported just 1.9% of deaths.
#Telangana with 3% adults reported only 0.8% deaths.
3/
Read 10 tweets
Aug 26, 2021
All the focus is on #Kerala's #COVID19 cases as it contributed ~68% of new cases in India y'day.

Politically, it's become a major tool of attack against the state & its government.

This thread tries to make some sense of the COVID19 numbers from Kerala.

1/
Many are asking why Kerala is reporting so many cases while the rest of India seems to have flattened it.

Yet, I'm actually surprised why Kerala is reporting only so many cases when it should be actually reporting 40K+ daily cases already.

2/
The current rise in cases was inevitable with the somewhat irrational lockdown relaxations & increased mobility that is visible over the past several weeks. It is only the reduced testing that is still holding the reported cases well below 40K.


3/
Read 17 tweets
Aug 4, 2021
Prof. @MenonBioPhysics, @nebuer42, & I prepared a set of recommendations on #Kerala's #COVID19 management, part of which was appeared in today's @Malayla_Manoram.

It pertains to suggested changes in the current lockdown policy of the state, vaccinations, etc.
1/
Recommendations on lockdown.
2/
Recommendations on vaccination.
3/
Read 4 tweets
Jul 30, 2021
This thread on why #Kerala’s #COVID19 numbers still not falling & my subsequent tweet on ICMR 4th serosurvey has exponentially increased the level of troll activity on my TL

I love data & let me dispel more misconceptions with data so the trolls can keep earning their bread.
1/
First of all, I feel pity for these trolls wasting their time on a state whose healthcare infra has never collapsed at any time during this pandemic.

Here's the current usage of health infra in Kerala. Don't you worry, the state will sail through even at 40K daily cases.
2/
One major argument against my original thread was that I used an old ICMR serosurvey. Yes, because a new one was not yet available. When it became available, it didn't change a thing. See the article I wrote deriving same conclusions using 4th survey.
3/
science.thewire.in/health/why-is-…
Read 14 tweets

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