Thread by @indiohistorian

#TodayinHistory in 1889, José #Rizal published the 1st part of a series of 4 essays featured in the Propaganda Movement newspaper La Solidaridad, entitled "Filipinas dentro de cien años" (Philippines a Century Hence) where he predicted what would happen to #PH in 100 yrs. THREAD.

It is one of Rizal's finest political essays. In it, he laid out the predicament of #PH as a Spanish colony, where Filipinos were never heard, never had proper representation in gov, & where corruption ran rampant, pushing the people to the edge.

https://twitter.com/indiohistorian/status/1273940435115716608?s=20

Rizal argued on the importance of a free press, in such a distant Spanish colony as the Philippines. He believed that a press that is truly free tells the real conditions of the country whether it hurts the political establishment or not.

https://twitter.com/indiohistorian/status/1256958768400613379?s=20

He then extrapolated the possible trajectory of the country in 100 years if Spain continued w/ the status quo. Rizal reminded Spain of the revolutions that plagued its neighbors & colonies, & that the desire of people for progress, equality, & justice could never be stopped.

Rizal rendered 2 choices:
- If Spain granted Filipinos their rights, it won't lose the Philippines.
- If it continued onto "exploitation" then "however great may be the loyalty of Filipinos, it will be impossible to hinder the operations of the inexorable laws of history."

Rizal predicted:
- If Filipinos achieve independence, England, Germany & France wouldn't "dare to take up what Spain has been unable to hold."
- China would be too busy being partitioned by the West.
- Japan would be more attracted to Korea, & too fearful of England & Russia.

- The United States "may someday dream of foreign possession" but it's territory isn't congested, plus the European colonial powers wouldn't allow it to become a rival. And that colonialism/imperialism is "contrary to her traditions." Rizal would be proven wrong on this.

Rizal then declared: "Very likely #PH will defend w/ inexpressible valor the liberty secured at the price of so much blood and sacrifice.... like the bird that leaves its cage, [it] will recover the pristine virtues that are gradually dying out & will again be advocates of peace"

But Rizal made a disclaimer: "...the prophecy based on the best probabilities, may err through remote and insignificant causes." Rizal ended persuading Spain to listen to the people's plight or else instead of "sympathy & love," it will garner "contempt & anger."

The essay shows #Rizal's clear grasp of geopolitics in Europe, in the Americas, & even in East Asia, drawn from his prolific reading & experience gained from traveling the world—seeing all these contending forces from the perspective of the Philippines.

https://twitter.com/indiohistorian/status/1257660212086857730?s=20

Photo:
- A front page of La Solidaridad, 31 March 1890, from @AskNLP

@subselfie @jmnualla @tonitiemsin