With transgender lobby @PrideinSportAU, 8 major sport bodies put out a statement on trans "inclusion" @RugbyAU @AFL @NetballAust @TennisAustralia @unisportAU @WaterpoloAus @touchfootyaus @HockeyAustralia Their policy enables male-bodied transfemales to compete in female sport. 1/
They justify this with the suggestion that if trans players are not included, suicide may result. That's a serious issue -- & there are serious questions about activist use of statistics on suicide risk. Did those 8 sporting bodies do their due diligence?
Their statement says: "Data from the National LGBTI Health Alliance state that trans & gender diverse adults are nearly 11 times more likely to attempt suicide than the general population, with 35% of trans & gender diverse adults having attempted suicide in their lifetime".
.@lgbtihealth is an activist body. Its February 2020 mental health snapshot is a summary of advocacy-driven research. It claims "transgender people aged 18 and over are nearly eleven times more likely (to attempt suicide than the general population)".
Any suicide is a tragedy but for this claim to be credible, it would have to be based on a study sample of trans people which is representative of the real world trans population. I can't find a source in the report for this "11x more likely claim". Anyone know?
This Feb 2020 snapshot also claims "35% of transgender people aged 18 and over have attempted suicide in their lifetime". A footnote says this was a Scottish study but I couldn't find a direct citation of that study. It seems to be this 2012 survey scottishtrans.org/wp-content/upl…
This Scottish study boasts "groundbreaking data" from "the largest survey of its kind in Europe". However, like all other trans suicide risk studies I'm aware of, its design is low quality, meaning it may not say anything accurate about trans people in general in the real world.
It's another self-selected sample (889 people) recruiting via sources such as "trans support groups, online forums and mailing lists". The researchers admit: "There is no way of knowing for sure how representative this sample is." And they add a significant caveat.
Caveat: "For the participants in this survey, 65% felt that there were trans-related reasons which made them think about or attempt suicide, while 61% identified non-trans reasons as relevant. This suggests that although being trans may be one factor, others are also relevant".
That caveat that does not appear in today's statement by @PrideinSportAU & the 8 "inclusive" sport bodies. No sign of it in the @lgbtihealth Feb 2020 snapshot either, though this report admits the studies it cites may have "methodological issues". Now that's a credible claim.
UPDATE: I asked @lgbtihealth about the suicide risk claims relied on by @PrideinSportAU & multiple sports for trans-inclusion. The source is the 2012 Scottish study, a low-quality design with a non-representative sample. A referencing error makes it look like an Aussie source.
.@lgbtihealth takes the self-report of "35% attempt suicide" & says it means trans people are almost 11 times more likely to do this than the general population. But the non-representative sample means that 35%, even if correct, cannot be generalised to trans people at large.

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More from @Bernard_Lane

17 Sep
No doubt Harvard's @jack_turban has reason to worry about trans people. Many teens in gender clinics present with a host of problems but is there any good data on how much suicide risk is *because* of trans issues versus, say, autism, same-sex attraction or family trauma? 1/
As for this new study, Dr Turban admits it uses a "convenience sample". Suicide risk studies relied on to promote gender clinic medicine typically claim very high risk but are low-quality from a research design point of view. I base this thread on talks with experts & reading.
These trans suicide studies can't be taken to be representative of trans people generally. They recruit participants via sources such as social media & trans activist groups, where the narrative of trans suicide risk circulates and may be reinforced by each successive study.
Read 19 tweets
29 Aug
Here are parents' voices, rarely heard in mainstream media, warning that "conversion therapy" bans will make it harder to ensure that troubled kids get honest, thoughtful help from those who love them, and expert, cautious care, not just uncritical "gender affirmation". THREAD
A mother of a trans-identifying teenager (with mental health problems and school refusal) points out the brain does not fully develop until the mid-20s, and children need “the support, guidance and education from the mature minds of their parents, therapists and carers."
“(The latest Australian conversion therapy ban) is eroding the role and responsibility of parents as children and teenagers navigate the most vulnerable years of their lives,” this mother tells @australian

Read 21 tweets
19 May
Does "gender fluidity" teaching in schools lead to any cases of overdiagnosis of gender dysphoria ("born in the wrong body") and life-altering medical interventions in children's hospital gender clinics? theaustralian.com.au/nation/parents… @australian #health #education #auspol | THREAD
In Queensland, Australia, education bureaucrats work to “strengthen relationships” with the Queensland Children's Hospital gender clinic — where under-18 patient numbers have risen 1,172% since 2014 — and liaise with a "Queensland Queering Education Consultative Committee".
In Victoria, the pioneer state for teaching fluidity, education minister James Merlino cites “confidentiality” when asked how many under-18s have been referred to the Royal Children’s Hospital gender clinic by GPs, trained by that clinic, under his Doctors in Schools program.
Read 13 tweets
13 May
Sweden has reportedly abandoned a plan to allow transgender genital surgery at age 15. Medical & legal experts had protested, driving media scrutiny & now the National Board of Health & Welfare has backflipped. svt.se/nyheter/gransk… @Sven_Roman @socialstyrelsen #policy | THREAD
The board's head Thomas Lindén cites the rapid increase in young patients with neuropsychiatric disorders in gender clinics, reports Swedish news program @granskning which had revealed a lack of evidence for official claims that lowering the age from 18 would prevent suicides.
The surge in patients may be over & @granskning reports that referrals fell 65% in the last quarter of 2019 at Stockholm's youth gender clinic. svt.se/nyheter/gransk… | From 2008-2017, the number of girls aged 10-19 treated for "gender dysphoria" in Sweden rose 1800%.
Read 8 tweets

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