1) On the eve of Quebec’s announcement Monday that it will impose new restrictions in the #pandemic, a quarter of the province’s schools on Sunday night have declared at least one case of #COVID19 among students and staff. In this thread, I will revisit the topic of schools.
2) As of 9:44 p.m., 767 of the province's 3,000 schools have at least one infection, according to covidecolesquebec.org. On the island of Montreal, 10 schools have reported at least five cases each. But authorities last week confirmed at least 30 school outbreaks in the city.
3) However, the extent of the #COVID contagion in schools is not fully known because authorities aren't systematically screening students, as they are in Germany. Even in classes where a student has tested positive, not every pupil is screened. It differs from school to school.
4) But what we do know is that far more schools in Quebec are identifying positive cases than in Ontario, where masks are mandatory in classes from Grade 4 and up. In Ontario, 6.59% of schools have reported at least one #COVID19 case, according to the government on Friday.
5) Meanwhile, Quebec posted its third day in a row of more than 1,000 new #COVID19 cases, as well as a net increase of eight hospitalizations. It’s in this context that the government is expected to announce new #pandemic restrictions on schools and sports on Monday.
6) Montreal posted 344 #COVID19 infections Sunday, down from 411 the day before. The city’s rolling seven-day average has dipped to 154.51 cases per million population from 156.16 a day earlier. But the city’s weekly average has nearly tripled in the past three weeks.
7) At the neighborhood level, the centre of the city is continuing to drive transmission of the #coronavirus, as the chart below makes clear. Of interest is the fact that the Plateau Mont-Royal reported a spike of 103 #COVID19 cases over the past two days.
8) In a twist reminiscent of the first wave, emergency room overcrowding dropped Sunday. Please see the chart below. Is this a sign that some Montrealers are again scared to head to the ER for ailments that bother them? Evidently, this is something that needs to be monitored.
9) As worrisome as Montreal's predicament might be, it’s much worse in the provincial capital, which reported a seven-day average of 20.53 cases per 100,000 residents Sunday. Quebec City is grappling with at least 80 active outbreaks, including a major one at a cardiac hospital.
10) Quebec City is also declaring far more #COVID19 deaths than Montreal, which added one fatality to its toll of 3,483, almost double that of Ireland’s (1,810). Really wish things could be better everyone. Please practice #PhysicalDistancing and wear a mask. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

7 Oct
1) Quebec is now beset with more than 500 #COVID19 outbreaks as the province posted a record 1,364 infections on Tuesday amid an upswing in hospitalizations and deaths. In this thread, I will assess whether the second wave in the #pandemic may prove more dangerous than the first.
2) Certainly, the potential is there for a more dangerous second wave. That’s because unlike the shutdown of the first wave, schools have reopened, and many businesses are still operating. At the same time, Quebec’s health-care system is stretched to the limit as never before.
3) And as the weather grows colder, more people will congregate indoors, providing the opportunity for the contagious #coronavirus to spread more easily. In November, the annual flu season will be upon us, raising the prospect of a Twindemic — #COVID19 coupled with the flu.
Read 12 tweets
6 Oct
1) More than a month after the school year started, Quebec will require high school students in red zones to wear masks in class as of Thursday. But that won’t be mandated for primary school children. In this thread, I will argue why children in this age group should wear masks.
2) Dr. Richard Massé, a public health advisor to the government, acknowledged that “there is some transmission (of the #coronavirus) in primary schools, but it’s much more limited than what we see in secondary schools.” Massé did not cite any statistics to back up his assertion.
3) In the absence of stats from the government, let me provide some #COVID19 figures by age group drawn from the Montreal public health department from Aug. 25, just before the start of the school year, until the most recent date available, Oct. 4. The stats are quite revealing.
Read 16 tweets
3 Oct
1) For three days in late June, Montreal reported no new cases of #COVID19 — a stunning turnaround in the #pandemic. But for the past three days this fall, the metropolis’s daily tally has averaged 362 cases. What went wrong? In this thread, I will offer possible explanations.
2) First, let me reiterate it’s highly unlikely, as Quebec’s public health officer suggested Sept. 26, the province has been hit harder by a second wave than elsewhere in Canada because of a more “invasive” and “lethal” #coronavirus strain. Other provinces have this strain, too.
3) Second, it was not inevitable that Quebec should be so hard hit during the second wave, especially given its tragic experience with the first one. British Columbia, after observing an increase in August, has managed to lower its incidence rate recently. See the chart below.
Read 17 tweets
3 Oct
1) As the daily number of #COVID19 infections crossed the thousand-case threshold in Quebec on Friday — the highest since the peak of the first wave — it’s clear the province is now fighting a multi-front war on the #pandemic. In this thread, I will elaborate on those fronts.
2) Let’s start with a surge in #COVID19 outbreaks in long-term care centres (CHSLDs) and seniors’ residences (RPAs) across the province. Clusters have been identified in more than 30 such facilities, with two dozen infections confirmed in the past 24 hours among the elderly.
3) The hardest-hit nursing homes are in Chaudière-Appalaches, the Capitale-Nationale, Outaouais and the Gaspé — regions largely spared during the #pandemic’s first wave. Eldercare centres have also been affected in the Eastern Townships, the Laurentians, Laval and Montreal.
Read 11 tweets
2 Oct
1) Quebec declared 16 more #COVID19 fatalities Thursday, raising the province’s death toll to 5,850. Premier François Legault cited the upswing in deaths as one of the signs the #pandemic has reached a critical point. In this thread, I will try to explain what this signifies.
2) First, Thursday’s tally of #COVID19 deaths is far from the more than 140 a day the province was recording during the peak of the #pandemic's first wave. Still, it’s noteworthy because the last time Quebec posted a higher total was more than two months ago, on July 3, with 19.
3) In recent days, it’s Quebec City and not Montreal that's been observing more #COVID19 deaths. On Thursday, the metropolis added one fatality to a #pandemic death toll that's climbed to 3,481, greater than Switzerland's (2,074), which has roughly the same population as Quebec.
Read 10 tweets
1 Oct
1) Since the start of the school year, the two demographics that have been observing the sharpest percentage increases in positive #COVID19 test results are elementary and high school students, according to the latest data by the Montreal public health department. Let me explain.
2) Over the summer and during the second #pandemic wave, authorities have determined that young adults are driving community transmission of the #coronavirus. In Montreal, public health director Mylène Drouin has broadened the age group to include those aged 18 t 34.
3) These individuals have been inadvertently spreading the #coronavirus in the workplace and during private gatherings, Drouin has explained. This is all true. But since Aug. 25, the highly contagious pathogen has been infecting children at a faster rate. Let me show the stats.
Read 13 tweets

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