5 @benchmarkmin Charts you need to know about Tesla and it’s lithium hydroxide production / spodumene plans.
1. Tesla is now official upstream of the lithium ion battery supply chain
✅ New cathode plant
✅ New Lithium Hydroxide plant
2. Lithium chemical refining is going global, not just in China
Production of lithium from spodumene has traditionally been the reserve of China.
Lithium chemical plants are now being established outside of China incl 🇦🇺 🇯🇵 🇰🇷 and now 🇺🇸 (Tesla)
3. More control over spodumene (lithium feedstock) prices
In the last lithium price surge, spodumene rose to above $900/tonne (@benchmarkmin prices).
Today it’s less than half.
Tesla will now buy spodumene directly for their own use.
4. Tesla’s EV and battery supply chain strategy is the same as China’s: control the middle ground
It’s a misconception that China has all raw materials domestically. Only 23% came from China in 2019. Yet, it’s the chemicals, cathodes, anodes capacity where China dominates...
Ensuring significant midstream supply chain capacity means the global trade flows of raw materials points towards China.
Tesla’s response is to build lithium chemical, nickel chemical and cathode capacity in Texas to feed its own cell capacity.
5. This isn’t 2016, Tesla isn’t the only mega-consumer
When the Gigafactory launched Tesla - for 18 months - was the only mega batteey consumer of raw materials. Suppliers were desperate to get the Gigafactory contract.
... Not now. Back then: ~15 battery megafactories in pipeline.
Today 167 of which 85 are active and consuming raw materials.
Supply chain aggression is needed and Tesla showed that on Battery Day.
<thread> My third testimony to the US Senate, June 2020: key points
China is building the equivalent of one battery megafactory a week, the United States one every four months.
In that time, we have witnessed a global battery arms race and watched the world’s number of supersized battery plants – known as battery megafactories or gigafactories – go from 17 to 142 [now 167]
Lithium ion batteries are a core platform technology for the 21st century.
They allow our energy to be stored on a widespread basis in electric vehicles and energy storage systems, and they spark the demand for the critical raw materials and chemicals.
[@benchmarkmin thread] Pertinent points on Tesla’s plan for produce lithium, the first auto maker to do so....
New lithium hydroxide facility expect to be co-located next to Terafactory in Austin
Tesla will build the USA’s first battery materials hub which in addition to lithium is expected to include cathode and nickel chemical production feeding into 4680 battery cell production
To add some context: we think Tesla will *not* get into mining, especially lithium. When @elonmusk mentions high nickel, he will be referring to the precursor to the cathode step not digging it out of the ground. Watch for more news on lithium of a similar ilk.
Investors in nickel and lithium have been short sighted. The 2025 wall of demand has just got bigger. This is the warning shot but it will still require new mines and operators that won’t be Tesla.
@elonmusk will also know that it’s an order of magnitude harder to scale battery ready lithium than to build a super sized battery cell plant. #Gigafactory#Terafactory
Adding many 3-5% improvements to a number of physical (manufacturing) and electrochemical (cathode, Anode) disciplines will result in a significant leap forward for traditional lithium ion.
Usually, these 3-5% improvements happen over time from a variety of actors in the industry. Tesla is aiming to do many of these at once and with it own the IP.