Thread by @SanaaCenter

We will be kicking off the panel on #Yemen with Non-Resident Fellow @maysaashujaa and Senior Researcher @AbdulGhani1959, moderated by @uOttawaCIPS Associate Prof @thomasjuneau in 5 minutes.

Watch this space as we will be live tweeting the event here.

.@thomasjuneau: Welcome everybody. This is third event on Yemen organized by @uOttawaCIPS in three years. This year, we have @maysaashujaa as a speaker and @AbdulGhani1959 a senior researcher at the Sana'a Center with over 30 years of experience on #Yemen.

The format for today is each speaker will present 10-15 minutes, then we will open the floor for a Q&A presented by @thomasjuneau.

.@maysaashujaa presents a quick history of Yemen. The sole power in northern Yemen is the #Houthis. They control the majority (70%) of Yemeni population. militarily, they are the most powerful group in Yemen. They also control all state institutions and they are organized.

.@maysaashujaa : the Houthis are a social minority. So it's not realistic that the UN resolution calling on them to put down their weapons. The Houthis after the war will demand a sharing of power due to their military not their political size.

.@maysaashujaa: The #Islah party is based on tribal networks, the salafists and the brotherhood. After six years, we talk about the anti-houthi camp. But this also means anti-government.

.@maysaashujaa: #Islah is the biggest faction and they are protecting President Hadi, because they need him as a political cover to protect themselves from the UAE and their Yemeni partners. Hadi also needs them because he lacks popularity and tribal network.

@maysaashujaa: #STC wants a southern state and they control #Aden. The situation in the south in more fragmented and there are more actors there.

@maysaashujaa: Hadhramaut is demanding autonomy regardless of how things end up. The humanitarian crisis in #Yemen is due to the gap between the diff factions who are relying on force and external support vs supporting their local communities.

.@maysaashujaa: In tribal areas, we have tribal structures and the sheikhs have local connections. Therefore, they provide for their communities more services and support vs Hadi or the STC who live abroad.

.@maysaashujaa: Supporting local governance can help the Yemeni people in a better way.

.@AbdulGhani1959: I will talk about the regional and international actors. "It is a tragedy of errors" - talking about the key players who are regional and who are supported by international states as the P5, EU & Germany

.@AbdulGhani1959: #KSA did nothing to help what is going on in #Yemen to ensure a peaceful transition of power. In July 2014, when the Houthis took over Amran. At the time, US advised KSA not to do anything. Hadi refused to issue the request for KSA to intervene then.

.@AbdulGhani1959: The UAE was not interested in #Yemen before the war in 2012. But when the war started, the #UAE pumped money into the war effort. #Iran was fully involved in what was going on but bought time for the Houthis at the time.

@AbdulGhani1959: Oman was the only country that had a constructive role in the #Yemen war. Most ppl in Yemen think that the US and the UK wanted the Houthis to take over Sana'a. While I think they simply were not alarmed by the Houthis enough as opposed to AQAP.

.@AbdulGhani1959: From 2016 - now, the KSA maintained the war at a certain level. KSA incompetence and corruption allowed for Houthi advances and gains. Over the past two yrs, KSA took over the area through which an oil pipeline they always wanted to have to the Indian ocean.

.@AbdulGhani1959: KSA's greatest challenge is their centralized systems.They couldn't get out of Yemen without admitting defeat. The UAE's goal in #Yemen is to stop the KSA from getting their desired pipeline. The UAE will try to restore the southern integrity & stop KSA pipeline

.@AbdulGhani1959: The UAE harassed KSA's allies. the KSA has been busy with the south, meanwhile, the Houthis make gains. The UAE and Houthis have 2 goals in common: 1- frustrate KSA plans 2- destory Islah party.

.@AbdulGhani1959: #Yemen is so insignificant in KSA-US relations. Beginning in the war, UNSC 2216 meant to stop Houthis from taking over state institutions. Its shelf life was a few months only.

.@AbdulGhani1959: At that point, the #Houthis couldn't negotiate under the UNSC resolution in good faith.

.@thomasjuneau: Tell us more on GPC / AQAP in part as anti houthi coalition in al-Bayda.
@maysaashujaa: The conflict there is over. In al-Bayda, the tribes have internal divisions that is used by Al-Houthis
@AbdulGhani1959: Al-Awadi did not fight and left.

.@thomasjuneau: How popular are the Houthis in their areas/ outside their areas?
.@AbdulGhani1959: they are hated. They are conducting indoctrination campaigns. Usually ppl see them as outsiders. They resort to violence and even in Sadaa, they don't accept them .

.@maysaashujaa: In Yemen, if you resort to force, people will turn on you. Force can work but not for long. It means revenge and more enemies as the Houthis are doing. Their enemies are growing inside their areas. Most Houthis are a minor group from Sadaa.

.@maysaashujaa: They did not create a network vs. Saleh who created an extended network during his time.

.@thomasjuneau: Let's talk about the Bahaii in Yemen and how they are treated.
.@maysaashujaa: They're 1000, mostly living in Sadaah. They live peacefully. When Hadi gov arrested Haidra on accusation of working for Iran. Under the Houthis, they accused him of working for Israel.

.@maysaashujaa: Not just the Bahaii. The Houthis also forced the Jews to leave sadaah, then to leave Sana'a and eventually there are very few Jews left.
@AbdulGhani1959: the Bahaii were happy to leave, but the Houthis do no tolerate the other.

.@thomasjuneau: What are the compromises KSA has to make to get out of Yemen?
@AbdulGhani1959: The end of the war is in the hands of the Saudis. They can provide guarantees to the Houthis, and proceed accordingly. But I dont think they are in a position to fo anything.

.@AbdulGhani1959: There are so many internal divisions that it doesn't seem anything can happen.
@maysaashujaa: After six years, the Houthis are very strong and have no incentive to sit at the negotiating table. KSA can ask the Houthis to cut their relationship with Iran.

.@maysaashujaa: but this seems unlikely. The houthis and Iran are now closer than ever.

.@thomasjuneau: Would anything change in Yemen if Biden wins the US elections?
@AbdulGhani1959: I don't think so. The KSA bottleneck will still stop Biden Administration advancing peace in Yemen. If Biden is willing to go against MBS, then that will be a huge breakthrough.

.@thomasjuneau: On the role of religion in the war, the media frames the conflict as sunni vs shia, etc. What do you think about that?
@maysaashujaa: It's a regional divide and not a sectarian divide. For exmaple, Saleh was Zaidi but he was supported by Sunni parties.

.@maysaashujaa: the Houthis are sectarian, they are using religion to push hate speech. the sectarian dimension is definitely increasing but it mainly remains to be a regional division. Regional motivation in Yemen is more important that sectarian ones.

.@thomasjuneau: What are the prospects domestically to agree to work together as a kind of a coalition in a post-war government?
@AbdulGhani1959: I think that's possible. I don't think Yemenis hate each other. However, the problem is thanks to KSA mismanagement of the conflict...

.@AbdulGhani1959: ... these means one party is very strong, and the Houthis will invite the other parties to come back in exchange for a share of power and amnesty, and the other parties will refuse. The best way forward is to develop local governments until rule of law is back.

.@maysaashujaa: I agree with Abdulghani. We have to encourage local governance in Yemen, esp that the Houthis are strong militarily. Now the Houthis can take the biggest share of power simply because they are the strongest militarily.

.@thomasjuneau: The influence of Iran over the Houthis: how much influence does Iran have? What's its endgame in Yemen?
@maysaashujaa: The Houthis have strong local roots. They were influenced by Iran, and after the war, Iran feels that the Houthis are a very strong player...

.@maysaashujaa: Yet the Houthis are still independent from Iran, unlike Hezbollah. And do no share the same religious references. The Houthis can sit down and talk to KSA.
In terms of endgame, they don't have any real demands or interests in ending the war, unlike KSA and Oman.

.@maysaashujaa: Oman and KSA remain different than Iran.
@AbdulGhani1959 : The Houthis have risen in the hierarchy in Shiism. Their reliance on Iranian support is increasing. One day, they will become unspeakable from Iran if they continue on this trajectory.

.@thomasjuneau: Can Yemen be united again? Is it doable when we factor in the southern dimension? How can this be and is it even viable? the South isn't united and not all want to be independent fully. Is it even doable?

.@AbdulGhani1959: The fault-lines between southern factions is huge. So a southern state isnt realistic. The institutions are in Sana'a. The only guarantee for the resilience of the Yemeni state is the institutions in Sana'a. The STC has legitimate claims to power

.@AbdulGhani1959: The only way forward is giving autonomy as much as possible to the different areas.
@maysaashujaa: Dividing Yemen into north and south is not realistic because each area is divided into smaller areas. The STC is *not* the sole representative in the South.

.@thomasjuneau: Let's talk about the war economy. What can you tell us about it, and what does it mean for the peace process? Certain factions can act as spoilers if they are benefiting from the war?
@AbdulGhani1959: It's been a main driver of the war.

.@AbdulGhani1959: The Yemeni gov & KSA got to lining their pockets. the war economy is a huge obstacle to peace agreement, but if the KSA cuts the money, then maybe peace would be possible.

.@thomasjuneau: Can you tell us about SAFER oil tanker off the coast of Yemen? Some background and then explain what the problem is.
@AbdulGhani1959: SAFER is a floating tanker/terminal. IT was bought and then anchored 7km off the coast for oil coming from Marib. It's very old.

.@AbdulGhani1959: There has been no maintenance, and an oil spill can caused an environmental catastrophe. The Houthis don't want to maintain it but hopefully, they can agree on that soon.
@maysaashujaa: Houthis believe it is protecting them against an attack from the west coast

.@thomasjuneau: Can you give us more background on the Iran-Houthi relationship?
@maysaashujaa: it is mostly in terms of military. The Houthis are getting military and intelligence support from Iran. And Iran connects them to their networks. i.e. through the media.

.@maysaashujaa: Withouth Iran, they are just a small party, but with the help of Iran, they are part of a greater network.
@AbdulGhani1959: Mainly, training and advice is how the houthis benefit from Iran.

.@AbdulGhani1959: The UAE and US are on a single note on how to proceed in Yemen w the same objectives of containing KSA. Institutions in KSA no longer talk to each other, and they are not speaking up when the leadership makes a mistake. Similar to Saddam in Iraq.

.@maysaashujaa: The UAE is much more organized than KSA. The Saudis are messier, but they are more open to compromises. The UAE is much more radical in comparison.

.@thomasjuneau: Questions on Saleh family, you mentioned his sons, his nephews, they are influential. Can you tell us where they were, what control they have, and what are their prospects in Yemen, what roles they could play?

.@maysaashujaa: Ahmed, Saleh's eldest son, lacks any influence or power. The rest of Saleh's family are in Oman and do not work in politics. Only his nephew, Tarek Saleh, on the western coast has some power there. He's not popular in Taiz, but I don't know what his future is.

.@AbdulGhani1959: KSA regimes keep recycling the old rhetoric. Those who burned their bridges in Yemen will not come back. The Sana'a elite should lose its power to local autonomy.

.@thomasjuneau: Thank you everyone. Follow @uOttawaCIPS on Twitter. The video of the session will be up in a few days and CIPS will tweet about it then. Thank you all for joining us and have a good week.